General Corona Virus Discussion

Jack@European_Parts said:

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/20...d-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity
My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes.
Emerging cases of Covid-19 reinfection suggest herd immunity is wishful thinking.

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PetrolDave said:

Immunity to Covid-19 could disappear in months

https://www.technologyreview.com/20...uld-disappear-in-months-a-new-study-suggests/

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Decreasing antibody titers don't mean that people don't have resistance. T-cell reactivity is definitely a thing and appears to be an explanation for why a good portion of the population has resistance to begin with, which is something that all the early models from the epidemiologists missed entirely.

There's way too little background on the patient described in Jack's article. Let's start with the most basic question: Does he have a healthy immune system?

But if the speculation in these articles is correct, then we'd better focus on developing effective treatments rather than vaccines because vaccines won't confer long-lasting immunity either.

-Uwe-

Any CV-15 pics? (the 15lbs people have gained since March )

Patrick Henry revisited 245 year later...

Give me liberty or give me death…

(Unless there is a virus with 99.75% recovery rate and 98% of those whom test positive for infection are asymptomatic. In which case strip me of my freedoms, my job, my constitutional rights, and place me under house arrest.)

bobster said:

Any CV-15 pics? (the 15lbs people have gained since March )

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I'd lost close to 15 lbs, and am now trying to gain weight again as of the start of July. When you have too much time, and exercise is one of your best outlets, but you don't have the full repertoire of things at your disposal you'd find at your local gym.

BB tt said:

Patrick Henry revisited 245 year later...

Give me liberty or give me death…

(Unless there is a virus with 99.75% recovery rate and 98% of those whom test positive for infection are asymptomatic. In which case strip me of my freedoms, my job, my constitutional rights, and place me under house arrest.)

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Going off of Worldometers, the Recovery rate is 93-94%. Mind sharing where you got your information? Genuine curiosity.

I agree with the sentiments however. (wear the mask though...)

Mike R said:

Going off of Worldometers, the Recovery rate is 93-94%.

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Same problem we've had all along. The number of actual infections is much higher than the number actually diagnosed & reported. Lots of people with with mild or no symptoms at all never seek testing or medical attention. Even the CDC came out a while back and said that the real number of cases is likely 10 times the number reported.

-Uwe-

Mike R said:

Going off of Worldometers, the Recovery rate is 93-94%. Mind sharing where you got your information? Genuine curiosity.

I agree with the sentiments however. (wear the mask though...)

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It was from webmd estimate of 97.5 - 99.75 % recovery rate, but going off cdc.gov today for U.S. 140157 deaths / 4,370,824 positive tests = 96.8% current recovery rate (or .0004 % of the U.S. population) if you trust CDC numbers that include "probable deaths" from covid of people who may or may not have actually had and people with underlying conditions and here in Texas a guy killed in car accident tested positive so listed as covid death.

This from the same cdc that started The Flu "Vaccine" (flu shots are not a vaccine) in the early 40s whose own statistics show the same % of population still gets flu every year and their own study showed taking vitamin D was more effective at preventing flu than getting a flu shot. Also has multiple studies on use of masks for preventing spread of flu and the common cold(a form of corona virus) from 1946 - June 2020 that show there was no significant difference in the spread with or without a mask outside a clinical setting and recommended against wearing masks in public till this year.

I was onboard with the precautions when this all started but now the statistics show it is not nearly as bad as predicted/expected and the same people doing all the fear mongering are screaming follow the science while they ignore the science now that it doesn't fit their agenda. As of 11 July CDC shows 279,030 hospitalizations for covid 19, for H1N1 which at the time of that pandemic CDC was predicting was going to be as deadly if not more. CDC now estimates there were 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719) yet we didn't all have to hide in our bunkers till mommy said it was ok to go outside and play. Oh and again during that they recommended people not wear masks while out in public.

Sorry rant on cdc done just a personal pet peeve for me having never had the flu once in my life until forced to get the flu shot in the military then caught flu 4 weeks later. I have only had flu 3x in my life and every time it was after getting a flu shot (yes i know it is coincidental) and the 1 x they made me do the nasal spray ended up in hospital after the nasal infection it caused turned into a respiratory infection. After that they put in my medical record to exempt me from flu shot and have never got flu since (knock on wood).

I have no problem with masks (I lived in Japan for a decade) if it makes you feel better wear it, but don't have any illusion that it is going to prevent you from getting a virus that is only a couple microns in size. My issue is with local county governments shutting down businesses and telling us where and where we can't go and what we can do, unless of course you want to riot then hey it is all good.

BB tt said:

I have no problem with masks (I lived in Japan for a decade) if it makes you feel better wear it, but don't have any illusion that it is going to prevent you from getting a virus that is only a couple microns in size. My issue is with local county governments shutting down businesses and telling us where and where we can't go and what we can do, unless of course you want to riot then hey it is all good.

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The mask isn't to prevent me from getting sick. It's to prevent me from spreading it to other people around me. Sneezing, coughing even small spit particles can spread the disease. The mask catches a large amount of this and prevents it from getting onto other surfaces where it could potentially be spread to others.

The whole "Don't wear masks" was a hoax. People in power basically wanted first dibs on PPE because there was a shortage at the time. Also Fauci who in large part was where many people got that information from is a hack who just regurgitates whatever the media says, only a couple days later.

Mike R said:

Also Fauci who in large part was where many people got that information from is a hack

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That part, I absolutely agree with. His screw-ups go back many decades, to the early days of AIDS/HIV. How he got to be the WuFlu Czar is beyond me.

FWIW, I suspect that hand hygiene is likely to be just as important at preventing the spread of viruses as mask-wearing, and quite possibly more so. The problem is, it's nearly impossible to tell when people (for example those handling your groceries or the food in a restaurant) last washed their hands or how thoroughly they did so.

-Uwe-

Mike R said:

The mask isn't to prevent me from getting sick. It's to prevent me from spreading it to other people around me. Sneezing, coughing even small spit particles can spread the disease. The mask catches a large amount of this and prevents it from getting onto other surfaces where it could potentially be spread to others.

The whole "Don't wear masks" was a hoax. People in power basically wanted first dibs on PPE because there was a shortage at the time. Also Fauci who in large part was where many people got that information from is a hack who just regurgitates whatever the media says, only a couple days later.

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Yes I know why in Feb the Surgeon General said don't wear masks it was not a hoax it was because they were trying to conserve supplies for medical practitioners in a clinical environment where they are effective (and has been CDC guidance to the public for decades). Nearly every study the CDC cites from 1946 til may 2020 including a 2 year study in schools in Japan(where they wear masks religiously) showed no significant difference in the transmission of flu or common cold between wearing a mask and not wearing a mask when in a nonclinical setting. They didn't start saying don't wear masks in 2020 the CDC has been saying it for years. But again if it makes you feel good wear it but don't go out if you are sick and coughing and sneezing because again your mask is not going to prevent a 3 micron airborne virus from entering the air yes it may prevent some of your mucus/spit from spreading but it will not prevent the spread thru the air.

And Fauci (yes a hack) tells us we are months from a vaccine, vaccines prevent you from getting a disease the cdc has been working on the flu vaccine since 1942 yet still ineffective. Fauci has been leading the effort for an aids vaccine since the 80s how's that working out? I am sorry but i am over the hype, if i was 70 or had some underlying health condition i would be worried (just as i would be worried about the flu) but now that we have real data and not predictions continuing lock downs and shutting down businesses is not warranted. I feel sorry for the people who have died and for their friends and family but this has become the equivalent of a bad flu year, are we now going to shut the country down every time we have a bad flu year? It is BS when they now tell us this is different SARS which also originated in China is a cornona virus also that they predicted was going to be a huge pandemic ~2002-2003 why no calls that we have to wait for a vaccine for sars before we return to normal?

-Uwe-

I strongly believe the VAST amount of population (99%+) are IMMUNE to CV. Meaning, we are just NOT going to "get" it. And a vast amount of those that DO test positive will be asymptomatic.

I gave blood the beginning of this month and besides a free T-shirt, blue mask, $10 gift card, juice and a snack they tested the blood for CV. Or course I came back negative. My daughter had a co-worker test positive last week. So the co-worker is "quarantined" at home (without pay) for 2 weeks. Concerned, my dot went and got tested and came back negative (of course).

The local sheriff posts a "deathclock" every day on FB with county stats. Half the commentors are "thankful" for the info while the other half (myself included) chide him for spreading/encouraging the manic panic. I suggested in a reply that we should all keep getting tested until we come back positive so he can add to his erroneous stats.

PS: if it quacks like a Fauxchi then it is a duck...

Uwe said:

-Uwe-

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And??? I was waiting for him to collapse from nicotine OD... The point he did not make was that the (any) masks did NOTHING to protect his eyes from vapors...

I've been polite and have been wearing the blue mask given to me by the blood bus when I go into stores, as mandated by the commissars... I don't have time to deal with some wacko trying to shame me for non-mask use. I DO use a 3M 9510 N95 mask for my work grinding/sanding metal which is the intended purpose but I'm not about to waste one on heathens not wearing their masks properly. I still gotta get me a ninja mask for full effect...

So we had to shut down the entire economy and destroy peoples lives to "flatten the curve" for corona so the hospitals would not be overwhelmed by a few hundred thousand hospitalizations but we are not worried about overwhelming the hospitals with the predicted 730,000 flu cases. HMMMMMM what could be different this year then every other year????

Is it not about the billing, don't you understand, if they keep the flow steady they get to treat it right and does not treating it mean money, if people die at home, how can they be paid?

Pretty interesting article from the BBC:
The people with hidden immunity against Covid-19

I've previously pointed out that something on the order of half of all people appear to have some level of immunity or resistance to this virus. There's no other way to explain the data from the some of the cruise ships early on, or the fact that spread has declined to very low levels in places that were hit hard early on like Northern Italy, the NYC area, and London, with only only about 20% of people having developed symptoms.

If you add that 20% to the roughly 50% who have preexisting immunity or resistance, then you're at 70%, which dramatically slows the spread. That doesn't mean you won't have isolated cases or even small clusters for quite some time, but it would mean that the exponential growth is done in those places.

-Uwe-

Uwe said:

Pretty interesting article from the BBC:
The people with hidden immunity against Covid-19

I've previously pointed out that something on the order of half of all people appear to have some level of immunity or resistance to this virus. There's no other way to explain the data from the some of the cruise ships early on, or the fact that spread has declined to very low levels in places that were hit hard early on like Northern Italy, the NYC area, and London, with only only about 20% of people having developed symptoms.

If you add that 20% to the roughly 50% who have preexisting immunity or resistance, then you're at 70%, which dramatically slows the spread. That doesn't mean you won't have isolated cases or even small clusters for quite some time, but it would mean that the exponential growth is done in those places.

-Uwe-

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Agree but Italy is not a good baseline they have an elderly population, subpar medical care, and had nearly same death rate from a flu season a few years ago.

Fresh update from my county:



Montgomery has 2920+165 cases of residents+workers, and 781 deaths in longterm care facilities (nursing homes and the like). 32% of cases were nursing home residents and the 781 deaths works out to 96% of the total of 817 deaths for the county. I am unaware of any other county in the USA that has a percentage that high. Data:

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/LTCF-Data.aspx

https://data-montcopa.opendata.arcgis.com/pages/covid-19

Andy said:

I am unaware of any other county in the USA that has a percentage that high.

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I'm not sure whether how accurate this is, but some people have claimed that certain states such as NY only count people who actually died in nursing homes as nursing home deaths, and don't count those who were were moved to a hospital prior to death as such.

PA counts deaths "Associated with Nursing Homes and Personal Care Homes". The implication being that it doesn't matter where a person actually died; if they lived in a such a facility at the time they became ill, they are counted.

-Uwe-