General Corona Virus Discussion

[Jack@European_Parts]

Niacin or B3 too in addition to C......... dont want a scurvy or pellagra issue......

Eat Salt, Sodium Chloride for full charge on cells don't over do it or on water intake to point of toxicity.

Nutrition and balance is key!

 

[Adam]

This is not an advertisement and I am not affiliated with them in any way. I bought a bag of these to my family around January (not even worrying about coronavirus yet). It doesn't kill the viruses but it makes your immune system stronger. Before we started to give that to our children, they were constantly catching a cold which - eventually- was leading to a bronchitis / pneumonia...
So it was like - two weeks in a kindrgrten and three weeks at home - trying to recover... it was fun... (except it wasn't).

https://hwpartners.co.jp/en/about-narine/

(The link is - let's say - "random" - the first one I found about Narine in English).

Since my kids are taking these, not a single flu / cold for weeks already. Actually, my boy (almost 2 years old now) has a snotty nose for a couple of days, however it is not turning into anything else... which - as I believe - proves that their immune system is stronger.

I am really concerned about that coronavirus thing and that is why I've decided to share a bit of my experience here. Maybe you guys and galls will find it helpful.

I hope this nightmare ends soon...

I wish good health and internal strength to everone. Drink water more often than you usually do and have some good sleep (something I need to work on myself ;-)).

 

[Jack@European_Parts]

Pro biotics indeed can help immune system after a regiment of anti biotics and even help with a rebalance to help the body self regulate stomach acid production.

I find it far easier than eating yogurt and less fattening as a result.

Bringing salt levels up also helps since flora survive better with it, however, too much water is not good neither and flushes it, low sugar intake seems to help too.

 

[Goose]

I'm imbibing beer.
It seems to help.

 

[DV52]

Pro biotics indeed can help immune system after a regiment of anti biotics and even help with a rebalance to help the body self regulate stomach acid production.

I find it far easier than eating yogurt and less fattening as a result.

Bringing salt levels up also helps since flora survive better with it, however, too much water is not good neither and flushes it, low sugar intake seems to help too.

Jack: this is nothing to do with your comment above, but given your enthusiasm for posting on the Markets/Economy thread and because you seem to be a keen observer of what's happening - have you noticed the perhaps not surprising similarity between what motivates financial markets and how folk are reacting to the virus? Both appear to be driven by fear and greed!!

The one clear and unassailable observation (at least down here in the Antipodes) of peoples' behavior in pandemic times appears to confirm mainstream economic theory that we (as a society) are driven by the rational pursuit of self-interest!!

I think (perhaps "hope" is a better word) that the current practices for hoarding and panic buying is a temporary state and that fairly soon we will start seeing the types of not-so-rational selfless reactions as were prevalent in lots of communities during WW2 (a different kind of pandemic).

Of course statistics regarding the virus differ - but using www.worldometers information as global numbers there are about 169,113 cases confirmed and 6,494 related deaths (see later discussion about the latter number) at the time of writing. That means that the morbidity rate for the virus is 3.8%.

Now, I don't suggest that everyone ignores the potential for the virus to mutate, or for the morbidity rate to rise - but perhaps a more proportionate response is needed by those of us who live in caring communities - maybe?

And.... the thing about the death numbers is no one is identifying how many of these are related to an underlying cause other than the virus. So to assign a death (unfortunate as this is) to the virus, simply because the person had caught the virus is a tad harsh (I think)

We certainly do live in interesting times !!

Don

PS: but at least the virus has introduce me to a new term "social distancing" - what a corker!!! ?

 

[NZDubNurd]

I'm one of those stockpiling essentials...

I ordered 9L (nearly 2.5 US gallons?) of various whiskeys online, should arrive tomorrow. It's like hand sanitizer, but for your insides

And.... the thing about the death numbers is no one is identifying how many of these are related to an underlying cause other than the virus. So to assign a death (unfortunate as this is) to the virus, simply because the person had caught the virus is a tad harsh (I think)

Check this out:

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

One of the slides:

Obviously it's not comprehensive, but it's an idea - it's good to see ALL the slides as the study was performed in Wuhan, and mentioned the poor lung health and high rate of smoking.

It's on the internet, so it must be true, anyway.

 

[DV52]

^^^Allan: you're-da-man, excellent information -go immediately to the top of the class!! The most pertinent slide (for me) is the last one: I watch the news services and I constantly note how the virus has become simple "product" for the media

Sure these outlets play an important role as information providers to us, the great unwashed masses -but the deluge of virus reports seldom appear to be measured and proportionate!

Perhaps the real virus here is the brain-worm that's spread subliminally over the media airways: perhaps the real threat from the virus is nothing more than modern society's propensity to be the mendicant of the media? Shirley not - have we managed to reach the 21st century only to realize that we ne3ed the media to do our thinking for us?

Don

 

[NZDubNurd]

It's amusing...

The media is freaking people out. Influenza is still more likely to take people out, if you're playing a numbers game!

 

[PetrolDave]

The media is freaking people out. Influenza is still more likely to take people out, if you're playing a numbers game!

I totally agree.

An example from the BBC lunchtime news today - they ran aerial footage of one of the bridges in London over the River Thames which showed one taxi, one bicycle and some pedestrians. This was supposed to show how little traffic there was in central London, BUT other reports say that while the London Underground trains were almost deserted traffic on the roads was normal.

So what's the story behind the almost traffic free bridge? ..... it is closed to traffic (except taxis, bicycles and pedestrians) for several months for major repairs!!!!

So the BBC were deliberately broadcasting misinformation calculated to scare viewers This is another example of why the BBC cannot be trusted to be impartial or accurate.

 

[Jack@European_Parts]

 

[Uwe]

^^^ Please don't get get me started on the so-called "Journalism" of 60 Minutes.

They go "undercover" in Bangkok to prove that China hasn't shut down its wet markets?

Just how ignorant do they think their audience is?

-Uwe-

 

[Jack@European_Parts]

You mean you don't believe 60 minutes?
What about the unintended acceleration video in 1986?


I remember that lawsuit and damage it did plus the Teletype OTIS transmitted after Audi won their court case.

Do you believe or disbelieve the power of above Majestic or the mere existence of Solar Warden launched out of Neu Swabia?

 

[HMC]

I totally agree.

An example from the BBC lunchtime news today - they ran aerial footage of one of the bridges in London over the River Thames which showed one taxi, one bicycle and some pedestrians. This was supposed to show how little traffic there was in central London, BUT other reports say that while the London Underground trains were almost deserted traffic on the roads was normal.

So what's the story behind the almost traffic free bridge? ..... it is closed to traffic (except taxis, bicycles and pedestrians) for several months for major repairs!!!!

So the BBC were deliberately broadcasting misinformation calculated to scare viewers This is another example of why the BBC cannot be trusted to be impartial or accurate.

Hi PetrolDave,
I don't know what it is like in South Molton but if you don't believe that London is like a ghost town during the rush hour you are sadly deluded. My son sent a video of Westminster Station in the rush hour there was 4 people on the platform!
Fox News, Sky News, BBC News, I know who I trust and it begins with a B!
Regards HMC

 

[PetrolDave]

Fox News, Sky News, BBC News, I know who I trust and it begins with a B!

Funny, my stepson lives and works in London and on the day I posted my message (Tuesday) he confirmed that traffic in the streets was "normal" but the Underground was almost deserted.

But by Wednesday (the day AFTER I posted) he confirmed that even the streets were deserted - this is a rapidly changing situation so the state 2 days ago is very diffrent from the state yesterday, and probably even different today.

BTW the one news broadcaster I have learned over the last decade to NEVER trust is the BBC - they seem to have forgotten the difference between news and comment so their "news" broadcasts have for several years been 80% comment making it a struggle to separate out the actual "news".

 

[Jack@European_Parts]

Someone is lying about the actual numbers.........


https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/03/19/italian-death-toll-overtakes-chinas-as-virus-spreads/23955123/

 

[DV52]

Someone is lying about the actual numbers.........


https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/03/19/italian-death-toll-overtakes-chinas-as-virus-spreads/23955123/

Jack: Lying- a tad harsh,perhaps? The seminal numbers in the link are

"The worldwide death toll crept toward 10,000 as the total number of infections topped 220,000................".​

IMO, this should have read "confirmed infections" - I'm sure that the "actual infection" numbers are much higher than reported making the morbidity rate lower.

Using the quoted numbers, that's a morbidity rate of about 4.5% - compared with the previously calculated rate of 3.7%. Yes it's a 22% increase but perhaps not surprising given Italy's ageing population (and yes, on a personal level because I come from Italian peasant stock-still an absolute tragedy for each death).

I don't want to demean the potential impact of the virus - but if the gaze is changed and the pandemic is viewed from an epidemiological perspective (and admittedly it's still early days in the progress of the worldwide infection) - with a world population in 2020 of about 7,800 million - the infection rate for mankind (is this a PC term that I can use in Uwe's bar -or, should I use "personkind"?) is 0.0028%.

The other interesting take-out from the link is this:

Italy, with a population of 60 million, recorded at least 3,405 deaths, or roughly 150 more than in China — a country with a population over 20 times larger.​

If I use these numbers and if I assume that the Communist Government isn't fudging the figures - it means that strict population control results in a reduced death rate of about 2,000%. I know that it's heresy to suggest this - but I hope democracy can achieve the same type of population control that is evident in the Communist system . Perhaps even Americans (Mike Ross?) will agree that in a pandemic, this may be the singular advantage of Chinese style government? Of course, I'm only teasing and it's a rhetorical question - but a valid point IMO, nevertheless !

	Population 	Deaths 	Morbidity rate
Italy	 60,000,000 	 3,405 	0.00568%
Wuhan	 1,200,000,000 	 3,255 	0.00027%
			
	Change		2,092%

Don

 

[Uwe]

If I use these numbers and if I assume that the Communist Government isn't fudging the figures - it means that strict population control results in a reduced death rate of about 2,000%.

Yes, it seems that those behavioral controls can depress the R0 to something less than 1.0. But how long can you maintain such controls before you don't have an economy left? And what happens when you lift those controls? I would suggest we're about to find out the latter, because China is starting to lift them to some extent, except they've been furiously expelling foreign journalists.

-Uwe-

 

[DV52]

Yes, it seems that those behavioral controls can depress the R0 to something less than 1.0.

thank you - I hadn't heard the term "R0", but I now know what "basic reproductive ratio" means - it's a good metric to understand in the current environment!

But how long can you maintain such controls before you don't have an economy left?

I don't believe that it's an over-statement to say that regardless of what happens and irrespective of the imposition and/or lifting of controls - the economies of every country will be different for quite a long time!! As in all crises- there will be winners and losers (catastrophes always have been an environment for canny entrepreneurs to flourish - and a global pandemic will be no exception - I suspect!)

And what happens when you lift those controls? I would suggest we're about to find out the latter, because China is starting to lift them to some extent, except they've been furiously expelling foreign journalists.

I heard a local news service this morning reporting that after zero new cases in Wuhan, the numbers have started to rise again and that the Government suspects the cause to be foreigners (perhaps even foreign journalists)!! If true, the irony is palpable!!!

 

[PetrolDave]

I'm sure that the "actual infection" numbers are much higher than reported making the morbidity rate lower.

Absolutely - for example, in the UK testing of anyone showing symptoms was stopped several days ago and only those seriously ill enough to be taken into hospital are being tested.

So the UK figures for "confirmed infections" will be substantially lower than the "actual infection" numbers - if other countries are following a similar methodology then the morbidity rate will be significantly lower than suggested by using the "confirmed infection" numbers.

 

[Bruce]

Absolutely - for example, in the UK testing of anyone showing symptoms was stopped several days ago and only those seriously ill enough to be taken into hospital are being tested.

So the UK figures for "confirmed infections" will be substantially lower than the "actual infection" numbers - if other countries are following a similar methodology then the morbidity rate will be significantly lower than suggested by using the "confirmed infection" numbers.

Same applies to the US. They simply do not have enough facilities to test all.. only those showing symptoms and with a doctors directive, are tested.