EV Thread

One of the things that should be taken into consideration when assessing the impact of any "green" electric generation is "power to weight ratio". How much stuff (steel, concrete, glass, and other materials) does it take to produce a megawatt of reliable power? And then look at how often it needs to be replaced.

Audi's electric SUV faces four-week delay because of software bug

Inquiring minds want to know: What kind of software bug needs, "needs new regulatory clearance"..

not sure I care for that nose, but otherwise looks pretty nice. Whether its competitive I suppose will depend on pricing.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/1...ona-ev-is-a-clever-little-electric-crossover/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...on-vw-bmw-s-backs-as-model-3-heads-for-europe

Hyperdrive
[h=1]Musk Puts Targets on VW, BMW's Backs as Model 3 Heads for Europe[/h]

Jack@European_Parts said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...on-vw-bmw-s-backs-as-model-3-heads-for-europe

Hyperdrive
[h=1]Musk Puts Targets on VW, BMW's Backs as Model 3 Heads for Europe[/h]

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European regulatory approval? Let me know when they have it.

And then there's the question: How many Model 3 cars have been delivered in the US? Because it seems to me that Tesla is nowhere close to having produced the 400,000 or so they had reservations for. If they're going to push into Europe next, does this not tell us something about about demand for the Model 3 in the US?

Uwe said:

How many Model 3 cars have been delivered in the US?

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almost 110k (not necessarily US only) according to @ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Tesla is nowhere close to having produced the 400,000 or so they had reservations for.

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True in fact, they haven't produced any of the $35k models the reservations were originally for.

All it means to me, is that they have not yet hit the price point that the public at large will pay, and that they are expanding the net to capture more volume.

Uwe said:

European regulatory approval? Let me know when they have it.

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They made it happen for the Model S and Model X, and presumably they've only gotten better and faster at homologation since then, and had plenty of time to adapt those lessons-learned right into the Model 3 design, and it's not like they have to pass emissions tests.

https://electrek.co/2018/09/25/tesla-model-3-production-european-expansion/

Uwe said:

And then there's the question: How many Model 3 cars have been delivered in the US? Because it seems to me that Tesla is nowhere close to having produced the 400,000 or so they had reservations for. If they're going to push into Europe next, does this not tell us something about about demand for the Model 3 in the US?

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It'll be interesting to see how many of those reservations actually turn into sales, given all the time that's passed.

They do seem to be shipping a shocking number of the things, and they'd be foolish not to address the largest total market possible.

jyoung8607 said:

They made it happen for the Model S and Model X, and presumably they've only gotten better and faster at homologation since then, and had plenty of time to adapt those lessons-learned right into the Model 3 design, and it's not like they have to pass emissions tests.

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Those have a far more conventional "human interface", and there are some questions whether controls in the Model 3 really meet the European regulatory standards for such things.

Uwe said:

Those have a far more conventional "human interface", and there are some questions whether controls in the Model 3 really meet the European regulatory standards for such things.

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Citation? Not saying you're wrong, just haven't heard of it being a problem, and they're apparently far enough along to have European VINs issued to production vehicles.

jyoung8607 said:

Citation?

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I haven't got one handy. Just stuff I've read various places.

I also wonder what's special about a "European VIN". From what I know about VINs, a US VIN would meet the specs for Europe (although the reverse is not necessarily true, because the check digit isn't mandatory over there, and many manufacturers (including VAG) doesn't use it if it's not required. Unfortunately, I didn't look at the VIN of the Model S taxi that I rode in about a month ago in Frankfurt to see what Tesla might be doing differently with their VINs over there.

In the end, I'm interpreting this move (assuming they get their approvals) as a means of expanding the market for $45k+ models because they can't make any money on the $35k models that they promised, and the US will never see a $27.5k (after tax credit) Model 3. $27.5k is a mass-market car that can sell in big numbers. $45k or more, not so much.

Uwe said:

I also wonder what's special about a "European VIN".

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Wondered that myself. Turned up this article: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/3...comin-to-europe-baby-cleantechnica-exclusive/

They're making an informed guess, based on a restraint (seatbelt and airbag) indicator digit aligning with the European Model S. I take it the restraint system must be slightly different for regulatory reasons.

Uwe said:

In the end, I'm interpreting this move (assuming they get their approvals) as a means of expanding the market for $45k+ models because they can't make any money on the $35k models that they promised, and the US will never see a $27.5k (after tax credit) Model 3. $27.5k is a mass-market car that can sell in big numbers. $45k or more, not so much.

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Will they hit $35k? I don't know. Elon promises Elon Things in Elon Time.

But... news this week is they're hitting 20% gross margin per vehicle on the Model 3, ALL variants, with an expectation to reach 25%. On their current cheapest car, $46,000 with RWD, a mid-range battery and premium interior, 20% margin means their per-vehicle cost is around $36,800 and they expect to reach $34,500.

Take that $36,800 (or $34,500!) and cut the very expensive battery down to standard range size, lose the gigantic glass roof, and dial back the gadgetry and leather a bit, and suddenly they're quite comfortably right-side-up on a $35k base model. That's without giving up the autopilot hardware, to make autopilot SWaP sales later. They probably won't get to 20%, but base models are notoriously low-margin or even break-even for any car manufacturer.

So yeah, I think Tesla will make some, right after they stop drowning in orders for premium variants.

jyoung8607 said:

Elon promises Elon Things in Elon Time.

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Good one!

jyoung8607 said:

So yeah, I think Tesla will make some, right after they stop drowning in orders for premium variants.

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If they were still drowning in orders for the premium variants over here, then I wouldn't think they'd be trying to push them over there.

OK, if I were Elon, I'd also try to sell the more profitable premium models anywhere I could. But even with ~$10k profit per car, he's got to move a million cars to pay off the ~$10 billion in debt that Tesla has (rough numbers). Yep, that that kind of debt would weigh heavily on me.

No problem will Tesla just either claim bankruptcy or seek a bailout of the tax payer to protect its already subsidised business model?

hydrogen fuel cell

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/10/the-2019-hyundai-nexo-is-an-upmarket-hydrogen-fuel-cell-suv/

The native navigation app will constantly tell you where the nearest hydrogen station is, as well as keeping tabs on your range.

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this is one thing I wish my volt had, and in my opinion should be default on every type of alternative fuel vehicle. I think that Tesla's already have something similar for their supercharger network.

I realize the same could be said of plain old gas stations, but obviously the infrastructure of the oil industry has had a 100 year head start to put one on (figuratively or literally) on every corner.

D-Dub said:

hydrogen fuel cell

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/10/the-2019-hyundai-nexo-is-an-upmarket-hydrogen-fuel-cell-suv/.

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The storage tanks can hold a total of 13.9 pounds (6.3kg) of hydrogen at 10,000psi

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And some people think Li-ion batteries are dangerous!

Uwe said:

If they were still drowning in orders for the premium variants over here, then I wouldn't think they'd be trying to push them over there.

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I expect they're doing it for the exact same reason you sell diagnostic software and hardware to those very same commie foreigners.

Uwe said:

OK, if I were Elon, I'd also try to sell the more profitable premium models anywhere I could. But even with ~$10k profit per car, he's got to move a million cars to pay off the ~$10 billion in debt that Tesla has (rough numbers). Yep, that that kind of debt would weigh heavily on me.

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Makes sense to look ahead and keep the pipeline full, then, doesn't it?

The only truly unique thing Elon brings is an absolute refusal to accept the status quo. The big automakers don't especially care for being disrupted, and they are pretty smart. They took apart every new Tesla and saw things they liked, and there's nothing stopping them from catching up. And they are, quickly.

The best way for Tesla to die is to stand still.

If you are dumb enough to play with Lithium Ion batteries with cobalt you deserve to be smashed now don't you?

[h=1]Is VW Lying Yet Again? (This Time About Electric Cars)[/h]
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/29/is-vw-lying-yet-again/

Jack@European_Parts said:

[h=1]Is VW Lying Yet Again? (This Time About Electric Cars)[/h]
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/29/is-vw-lying-yet-again/

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A month ago, VW gave what appeared to be more down-to-earth figures for its most affordable 2020 ID Neo EV, which indicated an EPA range of 220 miles, and very decent charging rates, priced around €25,000 (or ~$29,400)

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I don't see it as a lie at all. I would wager that $29.4k is half (or less) what the average Tesla sells for right now. Let's not forget that Tesla's current product mix is composed of high-end Model 3s, plus the even more expensive Model S and X, while the $35k base Model 3 is still vaporware.

Moreover, by the time the VW's ID cars hit US shores, Teslas won't be eligible for the $7500 federal tax credit anymore, so a $35,000 Model 3 (if they ever make them) will really cost $35,000, while a $29.4k electric VW will actually cost $21.9k. And if we assume that quoted €25k included the European VAT of ~20%, then after converting to USD, we're only talking $23.6k. Deduct the $7500 tax credit from that and the cost to a consumer is $16.1k, which is less than half the $35k base Model 3.

"Both are using inferior technology, therefore should be destroyed, if continues to engage in dumb ideas which are imperfect. "

https://electrek.co/2018/11/06/arc-vector-electric-motorcycle/

yum