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Thread: Forum Milestone

  1. #11
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iichel View Post
    looks like you need about 27*0.8^n months to reach the step of (n-1)*5000 to n * 5000 posts
    next period would be about 11 months (20k) and the one after that 9 months (25k)
    You called it. 11 months and 3 weeks.



    -Uwe-
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  2. #12
    Verified VCDS User DV52's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    You called it. 11 months and 3 weeks.




    -Uwe-
    Uwe: I fixed that for you!!



    Don
    Last edited by DV52; 05-22-2019 at 06:03 AM.
    VW Golf MkVII (MY13) - A3 8V hatch (MY17)

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  4. #13
    Verified VCDS User iichel's Avatar
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    Happy 20k guys. See you in 9 months lol

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  6. #14
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iichel View Post
    Happy 20k guys. See you in 9 months lol
    My money is on more like 10 months. I think first half of April of 2020.

    -Uwe-
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  7. #15
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    My money is on more like 10 months. I think first half of April of 2020.
    And here we are, on April 9...





    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
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  8. #16
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    FWIW, the largest user categories are:
    13,340
    Verified Users
    9,822
    New Users
    1,038
    Unverified Users
    537
    Pirates
    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

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  10. #17
    Verified VCDS User DV52's Avatar
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    ^Uwe: congratulations: impressive guesstimate - but I'm not surprised at the accuracy of your prophasey given the commercial importance of the metric for the shareholder and the quality of the product (read-the value proposition for prospective purchasers) !!

    Looking forward another 10 months, what is RT's view about the impact of these interesting times on the membership curve (i.e. will world economic effects and more local fiscal measures "flatten the curve" - to use a covid term)?

    Don
    VW Golf MkVII (MY13) - A3 8V hatch (MY17)

  11. #18
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DV52 View Post
    what is RT's view about the impact of these interesting times on the membership curve (i.e. will world economic effects and more local fiscal measures "flatten the curve" - to use a covid term)?
    During the second half of last month, there were days when it seemed like the number of people registering was low, but lately the numbers seem quite normal.

    As for the economic effects, I am not sure yet. It may induce people to play with or work on their own cars more that they otherwise would. Ask me again in another 9-10 months.

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

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  13. #19
    Verified VCDS User DV52's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    Ask me again in another 9-10 months.

    -Uwe-
    Uwe: hmm......yes without an in-depth knowledge of business demands of your industry, there seems to be 2 countervailing tensions: at one end of the balance- more time in isolation certainly does mean a greater need to fill-the-void with interesting activities like VCDS. But on the other side of the balance, the general down-turn in both world and US economies tends to focus the fiscal decisions of prospective purchasers because of cash scarcity. I hope restarting economies (regardless of country) is efficient and timely!

    Don

    PS: OK I will ask again in "9-10 months", but with the greatest respect - repeating the accuracy of your impressive prophesy with the benefit of retrospective data won't be quite so impressive (no offense) !!!
    VW Golf MkVII (MY13) - A3 8V hatch (MY17)

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