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Thread: General Corona Virus Discussion

  1. #21
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

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  3. #22
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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    Ain't nobody got time for that useless mask!










    Better think this and ear muffs if really serious!


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  4. #23
    Verified VCDS User DV52's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PetrolDave View Post
    Absolutely - for example, in the UK testing of anyone showing symptoms was stopped several days ago and only those seriously ill enough to be taken into hospital are being tested.

    So the UK figures for "confirmed infections" will be substantially lower than the "actual infection" numbers - if other countries are following a similar methodology then the morbidity rate will be significantly lower than suggested by using the "confirmed infection" numbers.
    Dave: I'm probably overthinking the morbidity ratio thing (I tend to do this when I know little about the subject matter - which is the case for most topics these days) but on the converse side - I'm equally convinced that there has been an over-statement in the reported death count for the virus.

    I strongly suspect that the single qualification for identifying a death as being a covid-19 death is that the person has the virus. Whilst this might seem reasonable, the actual cause of death might also be the result of a separate underlying illness (particularly for the elderly).

    If I'm correct, the real death count from the virus should fall and with it, the morbidity rate should fall also. So, in the pursuit of accuracy and as a salve to published numbers that can only increase panic in the population - the error direction in both the denominator and the numerator for the calculation tend to reinforce a higher morbidity rate.

    Again, I'm not saying that we should ignore the risks from the virus - I'm just seeking the facts (which appear to be different to news-product as reported in the media

    Don

    PS: ..........and to put the whole virus thingy in perspective - i just couldn't resist this piece of prose (my apology to those from the countries identified, but us Aussies get an equal serve):

    UK Virus ALERT

    The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent virus threat and have therefore raised their threat level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, level may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.”

    The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out.

    The virus has been re-categorized from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

    The Scots have raised their threat level from “Pissed Off” to “Let's Get the Bastard.” They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

    The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.

    Italy has increased the alert level from “Shout Loudly and Excitedly” to “Elaborate Military Posturing.” Two more levels remain: “Ineffective Combat Operations” and “Change Sides.”

    The Germans have increased their alert state from “Disdainful Arrogance” to “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs.” They also have two higher levels: “Invade a Neighbour” and “Lose.”

    Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.

    The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

    Australia, meanwhile, has raised its alert level from “No worries” to “She'll be alright, Mate.” Two more escalation levels remain: “Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!” and “The barbie is cancelled.” So far, no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level.

    The Russians have said “Its not us”
    Last edited by DV52; 03-20-2020 at 07:35 PM.
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  6. #24
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DV52 View Post
    Again, I'm not saying that we should ignore the risks from the virus - I'm just seeking the facts (which appear to be different to news-product as reported in the media.
    I couldn't agree with you more Don. We need to take Covid-19 seriously, BUT we also need to keep in perspective how it compares to other viruses such as H1N1 flu, SARS, etc.

    The news media seem to be almost enjoying hyping up the effect on societies of Covid-19, all the UK broadcast channels are extending their news bulletins AND replacing other scheduled programmes with "analysis" (i.e we've told you something 3 times during the news so we'll tell you them 3 times again AND add in some unsubstantiated comment to make you REALLY nervous/scared).

    I'm firmly of the opinion that much of the panic buying in many countries has as one of it's root causes the sensationalist nature of the reporting by the news media and the lack of control over social media posts.

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  8. #25
    Verified VCDS User DV52's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PetrolDave View Post
    I'm firmly of the opinion that much of the panic buying in many countries has as one of it's root causes the sensationalist nature of the reporting by the news media and the lack of control over social media posts.
    Dave: Exactly my point too!! What each country needs in a pandemic is a draconian leadership style and a compliant populous! Alas, this is completely antithetical to western democracies - if this change in dynamic is at all achievable, then it will take courage (both by Governments and in the community). Given your observations about crowds still congregating in public - I wonder what it will take for democracies to bend-to-Government-rule?

    AND there needs to be a fundamental shift in the way that internal politics in Government is conducted. Democracies normally have a 2 x party base which are in constant opposition with each other as they both compete for the coveted trophy of Government. It all works well (I guess) in normal times - except that it doesn't work well in a pandemic. I'm not sure if UK has an enlightened opposition party, but in the form of Government that we inherited from UK - our opposition is still acting as an opposition party. This is not helpful because it has the effect of diminishing the message from Government.

    We are on a war footing - we need to change the way that our political system operates!! Again - I repeat my sacrilegious hypothesis (this time with a tautology ) - perhaps I've identified the only advantage of having a Despot as ruler (not that I'm suggesting Boris is a despot)?

    Don
    Last edited by DV52; 03-21-2020 at 07:19 PM.
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  10. #26
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DV52 View Post
    I'm not sure if UK has an enlightened opposition party, but in the form of Government that we inherited from UK - our opposition is still acting as an opposition party. This is not helpful because it has the effect of diminishing the message from Government.
    Don - the UK official Opposition started out taking the same approach as the Government but once the "going got tough" they have slipped back into the old yah boo sucks style of an opposition party which, as you so rightly say, is not the correct approach in this "war" footing that we all find ourselves in.

    IMHO the political class need to adopt a GNU (Government of National Unity) style until we beat (i.e. find a suitable vaccine for) Covid-19.

  11. #27
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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    The mass arrests of Cabal?


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  12. #28
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DV52 View Post
    Dave: Exactly my point too!! What each country needs in a pandemic is a draconian leadership style and a compliant populous! Alas, this is completely antithetical to western democracies - if this change in dynamic is at all achievable, then it will take courage (both by Governments and in the community). Given your observations about crowds still congregating in public - I wonder what it will take for democracies to bend-to-Government-rule?
    You know, if Wuhanic Plague had a case fatality rate of 50%, a "draconian leadership style" might be warranted. But it clearly doesn't, and I'm starting to wonder if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease.

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

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  14. #29
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    I'm starting to wonder if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease.
    Me too - when you consider that the real mortality rate is probably less than 2% (in the UK the current figures are wrong since testing is only done on those admitted to hospital which means 80% of those suffering are not included) it's really not a lot worse than unusual flu epidemics like H1N1 or SARS.

    It seems our culture has a desire to attempt self destruction because of over-hyped "problems" such as Covid-19 and "climate change" - but that's not a commonly held view.

  15. #30
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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    You know, if Wuhanic Plague had a case fatality rate of 50%, a "draconian leadership style" might be warranted. But it clearly doesn't, and I'm starting to wonder if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease.

    -Uwe-
    Yeah because it also breeds this?


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