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Thread: General Corona Virus Discussion

  1. #11
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    ^^^ Please don't get get me started on the so-called "Journalism" of 60 Minutes.

    They go "undercover" in Bangkok to prove that China hasn't shut down its wet markets?

    Just how ignorant do they think their audience is?

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

  2. #12
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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    You mean you don't believe 60 minutes?
    What about the unintended acceleration video in 1986?


    I remember that lawsuit and damage it did plus the Teletype OTIS transmitted after Audi won their court case.

    Do you believe or disbelieve the power of above Majestic or the mere existence of Solar Warden launched out of Neu Swabia?

    Last edited by Jack@European_Parts; 03-19-2020 at 01:11 AM.
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  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by PetrolDave View Post
    I totally agree.

    An example from the BBC lunchtime news today - they ran aerial footage of one of the bridges in London over the River Thames which showed one taxi, one bicycle and some pedestrians. This was supposed to show how little traffic there was in central London, BUT other reports say that while the London Underground trains were almost deserted traffic on the roads was normal.

    So what's the story behind the almost traffic free bridge? ..... it is closed to traffic (except taxis, bicycles and pedestrians) for several months for major repairs!!!!

    So the BBC were deliberately broadcasting misinformation calculated to scare viewers This is another example of why the BBC cannot be trusted to be impartial or accurate.
    Hi PetrolDave,
    I don't know what it is like in South Molton but if you don't believe that London is like a ghost town during the rush hour you are sadly deluded. My son sent a video of Westminster Station in the rush hour there was 4 people on the platform!
    Fox News, Sky News, BBC News, I know who I trust and it begins with a B!
    Regards HMC

  4. #14
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HMC View Post
    Fox News, Sky News, BBC News, I know who I trust and it begins with a B!
    Funny, my stepson lives and works in London and on the day I posted my message (Tuesday) he confirmed that traffic in the streets was "normal" but the Underground was almost deserted.

    But by Wednesday (the day AFTER I posted) he confirmed that even the streets were deserted - this is a rapidly changing situation so the state 2 days ago is very diffrent from the state yesterday, and probably even different today.

    BTW the one news broadcaster I have learned over the last decade to NEVER trust is the BBC - they seem to have forgotten the difference between news and comment so their "news" broadcasts have for several years been 80% comment making it a struggle to separate out the actual "news".

  5. #15
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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  6. #16
    Verified VCDS User DV52's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack@European_Parts View Post
    Jack: Lying- a tad harsh,perhaps? The seminal numbers in the link are
    "The worldwide death toll crept toward 10,000 as the total number of infections topped 220,000................".
    IMO, this should have read "confirmed infections" - I'm sure that the "actual infection" numbers are much higher than reported making the morbidity rate lower.

    Using the quoted numbers, that's a morbidity rate of about 4.5% - compared with the previously calculated rate of 3.7%. Yes it's a 22% increase but perhaps not surprising given Italy's ageing population (and yes, on a personal level because I come from Italian peasant stock-still an absolute tragedy for each death).

    I don't want to demean the potential impact of the virus - but if the gaze is changed and the pandemic is viewed from an epidemiological perspective (and admittedly it's still early days in the progress of the worldwide infection) - with a world population in 2020 of about 7,800 million - the infection rate for mankind (is this a PC term that I can use in Uwe's bar -or, should I use "personkind"?) is 0.0028%.

    The other interesting take-out from the link is this:
    Italy, with a population of 60 million, recorded at least 3,405 deaths, or roughly 150 more than in China — a country with a population over 20 times larger.

    If I use these numbers and if I assume that the Communist Government isn't fudging the figures - it means that strict population control results in a reduced death rate of about 2,000%. I know that it's heresy to suggest this - but I hope democracy can achieve the same type of population control that is evident in the Communist system . Perhaps even Americans (Mike Ross?) will agree that in a pandemic, this may be the singular advantage of Chinese style government? Of course, I'm only teasing and it's a rhetorical question - but a valid point IMO, nevertheless !

    Code:
    	Population 	Deaths 	Morbidity rate
    Italy	 60,000,000 	 3,405 	0.00568%
    Wuhan	 1,200,000,000 	 3,255 	0.00027%
    			
    	Change		2,092%
    Don
    Last edited by DV52; 03-19-2020 at 06:37 PM.
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  7. #17
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DV52 View Post
    If I use these numbers and if I assume that the Communist Government isn't fudging the figures - it means that strict population control results in a reduced death rate of about 2,000%.
    Yes, it seems that those behavioral controls can depress the R0 to something less than 1.0. But how long can you maintain such controls before you don't have an economy left? And what happens when you lift those controls? I would suggest we're about to find out the latter, because China is starting to lift them to some extent, except they've been furiously expelling foreign journalists.

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

  8. #18
    Verified VCDS User DV52's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    Yes, it seems that those behavioral controls can depress the R0 to something less than 1.0.
    thank you - I hadn't heard the term "R0", but I now know what "basic reproductive ratio" means - it's a good metric to understand in the current environment!

    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    But how long can you maintain such controls before you don't have an economy left?
    I don't believe that it's an over-statement to say that regardless of what happens and irrespective of the imposition and/or lifting of controls - the economies of every country will be different for quite a long time!! As in all crises- there will be winners and losers (catastrophes always have been an environment for canny entrepreneurs to flourish - and a global pandemic will be no exception - I suspect!)


    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    And what happens when you lift those controls? I would suggest we're about to find out the latter, because China is starting to lift them to some extent, except they've been furiously expelling foreign journalists.
    I heard a local news service this morning reporting that after zero new cases in Wuhan, the numbers have started to rise again and that the Government suspects the cause to be foreigners (perhaps even foreign journalists)!! If true, the irony is palpable!!!
    VW Golf MkVII (MY13) - A3 8V hatch (MY17)

  9. #19
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DV52 View Post
    I'm sure that the "actual infection" numbers are much higher than reported making the morbidity rate lower.
    Absolutely - for example, in the UK testing of anyone showing symptoms was stopped several days ago and only those seriously ill enough to be taken into hospital are being tested.

    So the UK figures for "confirmed infections" will be substantially lower than the "actual infection" numbers - if other countries are following a similar methodology then the morbidity rate will be significantly lower than suggested by using the "confirmed infection" numbers.

  10. #20
    Ross-Tech Employee
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    Quote Originally Posted by PetrolDave View Post
    Absolutely - for example, in the UK testing of anyone showing symptoms was stopped several days ago and only those seriously ill enough to be taken into hospital are being tested.

    So the UK figures for "confirmed infections" will be substantially lower than the "actual infection" numbers - if other countries are following a similar methodology then the morbidity rate will be significantly lower than suggested by using the "confirmed infection" numbers.
    Same applies to the US. They simply do not have enough facilities to test all.. only those showing symptoms and with a doctors directive, are tested.

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