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Thread: General Corona Virus Discussion

  1. #291
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Not all elderly people die when they catch WuFlu

    https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/new...-woman-4155687

  2. #292
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PetrolDave View Post
    Not all elderly people die when they catch WuFlu
    https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/new...-woman-4155687
    Absolutely true! We've seen some stories of centenarians pulling through on this side of the pond as well.

    However, there's no doubt that risk of death increases exponentially with age. This chart is a couple of months old, but I don't think the stats have changed much:



    And here's the US CDC's data through July 8th:
    https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...nd-S/9bhg-hcku
    The bottom of that page has a table with age-group break-downs.

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
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  3. #293
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    Absolutely true! We've seen some stories of centenarians pulling through on this side of the pond as well.

    However, there's no doubt that risk of death increases exponentially with age. This chart is a couple of months old, but I don't think the stats have changed much:



    And here's the US CDC's data through July 8th:
    https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...nd-S/9bhg-hcku
    The bottom of that page has a table with age-group break-downs.

    -Uwe-
    For me the most interesting thing about that graph (I too saw it several months ago) is that the "normal" death rate increases with age at the same rate as the Covid-19 death rate.

    Interesting fact - in most regions of the UK the death rate (due to all causes) is now LOWER than the 5 year average. Does that suggest that Covid-19 has brought forward the death of some who would have died anyway, resulting in a higher death rate in the April/May timeframe and a subsequently lower death rate?

    Given the research made public last week that Covid-19 spreads best when the temperature is around 4 Celsius (40 Fahrenheit) it would be no surprise to see an increase in Covid-19 cases in late Fall and Winter.

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  5. #294
    Verified VCDS User DV52's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PetrolDave View Post
    For me the most interesting thing about that graph (I too saw it several months ago) is that the "normal" death rate increases with age at the same rate as the Covid-19 death rate.
    Dave: do you have a theory for your observation?

    Don
    PS: the other "interesting" observation in the graph is the decreasing benefit with age of the XX chromosome in combating COVID. Probably to be expected, but nevertheless it supports the contention by some that the Y chromosome is nothing more than a mutation of the natural state of the species!

    Don
    VW Golf MkVII (MY13) - A3 8V hatch (MY17)

  6. #295
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PetrolDave View Post
    Given the research made public last week that Covid-19 spreads best when the temperature is around 4 Celsius (40 Fahrenheit) [...]
    Based on the outbreaks in meat processing plants, where the entire building is basically a giant walk-in refrigerator, this makes a lot of sense, but I didn't see the research you're referring to. Got a link?

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
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  8. #296
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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    COVID-DOWNS-20?
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  9. #297
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DV52 View Post
    Dave: do you have a theory for your observation?
    In the UK we get daily updates on several different death figures - the deaths mentioning Covid-19 is just over 44,000 but the excess deaths (i.e. over the 5 year average) is around 65,000.

    Is that difference solely down to untested Covid-19 deaths or are there also some "early" deaths in there? That's my theory.

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  11. #298
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    Based on the outbreaks in meat processing plants, where the entire building is basically a giant walk-in refrigerator, this makes a lot of sense, but I didn't see the research you're referring to. Got a link?
    See https://www.novinite.com/articles/20...round+4%C2%B0C

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  13. #299
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/202...-herd-immunity

    My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes.
    Emerging cases of Covid-19 reinfection suggest herd immunity is wishful thinking.
    European Parts Emporium/Performance / Immobilizer Solutions EPE
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  15. #300
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack@European_Parts View Post
    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/202...-herd-immunity

    My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes.
    Emerging cases of Covid-19 reinfection suggest herd immunity is wishful thinking.
    Immunity to Covid-19 could disappear in months

    https://www.technologyreview.com/202...tudy-suggests/

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