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Thread: General Corona Virus Discussion

  1. #281
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN24837S

    Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage
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  2. #282
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

  3. #283
    Verified VCDS User DV52's Avatar
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    ^^^^^hmm.......... interesting, but the curious dynamic in the graph begs the question - why?

    Has the virus now mutated to make it less deadly ( but more virulent), have medical practices become more informed (and therefore more effective), or are deaths in the US now being allocated differently when there are other underlying issues that coincide with covid, and death occurs? Or a combination of these?

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  4. #284
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DV52 View Post
    ^^^^^hmm.......... interesting, but the curious dynamic in the graph begs the question - why?

    Has the virus now mutated to make it less deadly ( but more virulent), have medical practices become more informed (and therefore more effective), or are deaths in the US now being allocated differently when there are other underlying other issues that coincide with covid, and death occurs? Or a combination of these?
    Probably a combination.

    I wouldn't necessarily say "mutated", The most successful viruses are ones that don't kill their host, and in fact, don't make the hosts so sick that they self-isolate, but that spread with the greatest ease. So some natural selection toward less severe and more virulent is to be expected.

    Medical practices have indeed improved. We no longer blow people's lungs out by putting them on ventilators and cranking up the pressure. We've figured out that for bad cases, certain steroids can be quite helpful (which implies that it's not the virus itself that's killing people, but rather an immune system over-reaction to it).

    We're also discovering (and thus reporting) a lot more cases than we were a couple of months ago. Hospitals are open for non-emergency procedures again, and they're testing everyone who's being admitted. Go to the hospital for surgery of some sort, get tested, have the test come up positive, and bam, you're a reported Covid case, whether you ever have any Covid symptoms or not. Early on, the only way to get tested was if you had severe Covid symptoms to begin with. Now, pretty much anyone who wants a test can get a test. Got a sore throat? A headache? A cough? Get a test. It's positive? You're a reported Covid case, whether the symptoms ever get any worse or not.

    Then there's the demographic aspect. The people who are out and about and catching it are the young ones. In Florida, the peak of the age distribution curve of all these new cases in in the low twenties. These "kids" are highly unlikely to die of this virus.

    I do not think that cause-of-death coding/reporting is a significant factor. If you look at all-cause mortality, it was clearly above seasonal averages for a while this spring, but has now reverted back to normal levels.

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
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  6. #285
    Ross-Tech Employee Mike R's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post


    -Uwe-
    Let's see how the death trendline looks in 2 weeks.

  7. #286
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike R View Post
    Let's see how the death trendline looks in 2 weeks.
    Look at how tightly it tracked the rise in new cases back in March and early April, and how continued tracking the the slow decrease in new cases through the middle of May. Then then note the clear divergence that started in the second half of May. The steady rise in new cases started in early June, a full month ago, while the number of deaths has kept falling. Are you proposing that deaths now lag cases by well over a month?

    -Uwe-
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  8. #287
    Ross-Tech Employee Mike R's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    Look at how tightly it tracked the rise in new cases back in March and early April, and how continued tracking the the slow decrease in new cases through the middle of May. Then then note the clear divergence that started in the second half of May. The steady rise in new cases started in early June, a full month ago, while the number of deaths has kept falling. Are you proposing that deaths now lag cases by well over a month?

    -Uwe-


    Cases started to rise the week of June 19th



    Deaths have started rising this past week with July 8th.

    3 weeks isn't really that unreasonable of a time for a disease like this.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...rage-185-days/

    This is certainly an old article and it was based off of initial chinese numbers, but it claims average time to kill from testing positive was 18.5 days. Given our at least marginally better understanding of this now as well as better medical technology in the US, saying that it's slightly higher here seems entirely reasonable.

  9. #288
    Ross-Tech Employee Mike R's Avatar
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    Proportionally, I still expect to see a lower fatality rate as a whole given that many of the new cases are amongst younger people (but deffffffffffinitely not because of the protests. Nope. Couldn't be. Unless it's a lockdown protest........)

    But lets not misconstrue the ultimate message I'm trying to say here. If you were in a vulnerable demographic before, you're still vulnerable now. If you weren't, then you still aren't now. If you're someone who's more at risk, you should not be throwing caution to the wind, and we all should still be wearing masks when we are near others.

  10. #289
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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    Party time or time to die?

    https://people.com/health/30-year-ol...exas/?amp=true
    Patient, 30, Dies After Attending 'COVID Party' in Texas, Told Nurse 'I Think I Made a Mistake'
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  11. #290
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack@European_Parts View Post
    Party time or time to die?

    https://people.com/health/30-year-ol...exas/?amp=true
    Patient, 30, Dies After Attending 'COVID Party' in Texas, Told Nurse 'I Think I Made a Mistake'
    There's no doubt that there will be an isolated death of a young person here and there, and that the media (People Magazine, really?) will hype them endlessly. Of course there are isolated deaths of young people from influenza, cancer, and even heart attacks, but the statistical risk to them from WuFlu remains negligible.

    Notice also that they didn't mention whether he had any underlying conditions, and the fact that they didn't even try to claim he was a "healthy" 30 year old makes me wonder what information they're omitting.

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

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