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Thread: General Corona Virus Discussion

  1. #31
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

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  3. #32
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PetrolDave View Post
    Me too - when you consider that the real mortality rate is probably less than 2% (in the UK the current figures are wrong since testing is only done on those admitted to hospital which means 80% of those suffering are not included) it's really not a lot worse than unusual flu epidemics like H1N1 or SARS.
    Yep, I think the reality is it will be much less than 2%.

    From the giant Petri Dish known as the Diamond Princess, where everyone got tested, and the age distribution of the passengers skewed considerably higher that it does even in Italy, we know that roughly 30% of people who tested positive never had any symptoms at all. So even in places where they test everyone with symptoms, not just hospital admissions, the number of infections are under-reported.

    What we really need right now is an antibody test like this in wide distribution to find out how many people have already had it and thus are likely already immune. This would also tell us where we are along the supposedly exponential growth curve; i.e. how many doublings are left before this thing peters out due to herd immunity. I suspect we're further along than the "authorities" think.

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

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  5. #33
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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    Herd immunity only works when most are immune from being with vaccination or if they no longer have ability to get it and this virus can come back by mutation and different strand's already taking place.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...tions-may-make


    https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutations.html
    Last edited by Jack@European_Parts; 03-23-2020 at 02:52 AM.
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  6. #34
    Verified VCDS User DV52's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    You know, if Wuhanic Plague had a case fatality rate of 50%, a "draconian leadership style" might be warranted. But it clearly doesn't, and I'm starting to wonder if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease.

    -Uwe-
    Uwe: Clearly your question would be answered differently depending on who is asked.

    With the greatest of respect -I suspect the answer would be a resounding "yes" by the families of the 16,000-17,000 who haven't survived the pandemic. But for members of the great unwashed proletariat like me (forgive my use of a Marxist term in a reply about the "free world") - your question does raise a fundamental moral dilemma: the relative importance of the health of a country's economy versus the health of the members in that economy (which are clearly related matters albeit as is evident in the pandemic and unlike "normal" times- these are no longer strictly symbiotic matters)

    My own personal view is that the "Wuhanic Plague" (I haven't heard the term before - it's very "Trump-esk") correctly forces Governments to rethink their country's priorities: stuff has changed in the pandemic and both imperatives above are important of course - but the one thing that hasn't changed is Government's reliance on the individual self interest of voters. I suspect that Governments see the fear and panic in the community (read "voters") and even with the relatively low morbidity rate, they prioritize personal health over the health of the economy - at least in the short term.

    Down here in the not-so-free part of the world, our Government had a myopic focus before the virus on achieving a budget surplus. A month ago that obsession started to falter and Australia started talking about a "budget deficit" - which then quickly changed to a "budget recession" and just a few days ago we started to hear the term "economic depression"! A slippery slope that I suspect is now inevitable with the only question remaining being: how long?

    I spent the last 18 years of my working life trading energy on a very volatile spot market where "risk-management" and "consequential analysis" were the tools of trade. I suspect that the task of government in finding the balance point for survival strategies for individuals in our societies versus the country's economy is very much a compromise using the same tools (but infinitely more complex).

    Personally, I would want my Government to err on the side of personal health, rather than on economic health - but then, I'm not as exposed to the economy as are others!!

    Perhaps in the new world post covid-19, the real winners will be asectics and introverts - I'm already one, but need to work on the other ?

    Don
    Last edited by DV52; 03-23-2020 at 05:32 PM.
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  8. #35
    Verified VCDS User DV52's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    ............ how many doublings are left before this thing peters out due to herd immunity.
    -Uwe-
    Uwe: I hope your hypothesis about "herd immunity" is correct - certainly the first version of SARS (SW version 1) that appeared around 2002 and which had an almost two-fold increase in mortality rate (9.6%) has only reappeared in small numbers since. But, Covid-19 is a next generation virus which is far more virulent and it has a much wider spread now world wide, so I wouldn't be surprised if it will be part of our way-of-life in all communities, forever more.

    It may well be that Covid-19 will become inactive through "herd immunity", as you suggest- but let's not underestimate the cunning tactics of other viral infections to mutate and re-infect. The other salutary aspect of the 2002 version of SARS is that after 18 years, there is no vaccine!! I hope that this is due to a lack of demand (certainly not the same situation as Covid-19)

    And yes - to quote your POTUS, the first SARS was also a "Chinese" infection!

    Don
    Last edited by DV52; 03-23-2020 at 08:12 PM.
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  9. #36
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    "if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease."
    23 Italian doctors have sadly died after catching the virus while helping others.
    With apologies to Rudyard Kipling:
    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,

    Perhaps you have misjudged the situation
    Regards HMC

  10. #37
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    UK on lockdown for 3 weeks:

    Coronavirus: UK brings in strict curbs on life to fight virus

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52014472

  11. #38
    Professional User Jetta ,97's Avatar
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    I am not comment abort this to much ,I want to share experience of my Ex boos ,very nice guy and most honest person that I know,
    I know not every cases are like this ,there is much more worst then this , but we need to also see positive side of story, not just Black side , fear and panic :
    Code:
    My Coronavirus Experience
    
    I finally received my Coronavirus diagnosis this Monday morning. It came back positive. 
    I was hesitant at first about writing this by my intent in publicizing this information is to help people 
    understand what cases like mine are like so I can hopefully reduce the fear that has enveloped 
    the entire globe in a matter of weeks. We all hear so much bad news lately that hopefully 
    cases like mine turn out to be the rule and not the exception.
    
    In no way am I minimizing the potential health threat that this virus poses to society,
     nor am I insinuating that there are not others with a similar health profile 
    that are not far more affected by the virus than I was. I am simply telling my brief journey with the virus and what it was like.
    
    I am about to turn 50 this summer. I take care of myself. I eat well. Easy on the red meat and bread,
     fish/sushi whenever possible and as many home cooked meals as my kick-ass chef (My wife Morgan) will make.
     I exercise often…trainer 3 times a week, HIIT class at Neon Cycle and Strength (plug for my wife’s business) 
    on Saturday mornings and racquetball on Sundays. Anyone that knows me knows that I hate sleep (4-5 hours at most).
     I love to go out with our circle of friends and I love vodka and limes (perhaps a little too much…of both).
    
    I rarely get sick or hungover and when I do, I will hardly admit it and just power through the day. 
    However, I am very much in touch with my body and know when something is a little off. 
    This past Tuesday night was one of those times that I felt a little off,
     maybe the onset of a soar throat or flu. Nothing to worry about, I thought. 
    I just need to get an extra hour of sleep and I’ll be perfect.
     I woke up with a slight body ache and knew something wasn’t right.
     I cancelled my workout and called our family physician. 
    Something new that I was not used to when I called were the screening questions.
    What was the highest fever you had? 99.8
    Any problems breathing? Shortness of breath? Nope
    Dry cough? NADA
    OK come on in.
    
    When I got there, they took my vitals. 
    Temperature was a little high but still under 100. 
    Blood oxygen level…perfect. Swab test for flu and strep…both negative.
     So, what’s the deal Doc? It could be a false negative on the flu test that we perform in the office. 
    30% of cases are, he said. We’ll send it in for a culture test. OK. Now what?
     I’ll prescribe some Tamiflu just in case. Otherwise, get some rest and call me if anything changes with your breathing. OK.
    
    I go home. I do some work in my home office and I tell my wife that 
    I should probably sleep in our game room that has 2 queen wall beds…
    just to be on the safe side in case I have the flu. 
    Around 7 that evening as I am watching the news, 
    I feel like the breaths that I can usually take cause me a little cough at the end of the inhalation.
     Nothing bad. As a matter of fact, I would not have thought twice about it if I had not seen 
    the Dr. who specifically told me to let him know if that exact thing happened. 
    Dry cough after a deep breath. My daughter called the Doctor’s office. Closed. 
    She left a message for someone to call us back.
     The Dr. calls back after 30 minutes and after a brief description,
     he advises me to go to the ER just to be safe. 
    He calls ahead to Presbyterian Plano and lets them know that I am coming. 
    I show up, Morgan is asked to wait outside of the ER since they have a lot of infected people come in.
    
    They take my vitals. Everything looks OK. 
    I ask the nurse if I can have a COVID test as she is pulling 2 large swabs out and smiles. 
    Already ahead of you. 2 swift insertions up my nose and she was done. That wasn’t so bad.
    
    Next test…chest X-ray. Oh oh, I have pneumonia. “Mr. Alfia”, says the Dr. “We want to keep you for observation.” Why I ask? 
    You have all the classic signs for COVID-19. What classic signs? Fever, pneumonia,
     shortness of breath, dry cough. “OK, but I feel fine”, I said. He insisted.
    
    Without sidetracking the story (another post perhaps) about how bad it was in that hospital waiting for them to transfer me to a proper room.
     After laying on a gurney for almost 10 hours, I made my escape from the hospital at 6 am. 
    The final straw was when they gave me sour cream and onion Lays chips as a meal when I told them that I hadn’t eaten anything since 3 pm.
    
    Nonetheless, I went home on Thursday morning and went straight to bed in my new upstairs living quarters. 
    The next 2 days were just relaxing in bed taking the occasional Tylenol to reduce fever that never got passed 101.5
     and being pampered (most of the time) by my wife. I took care to stay in the room the entire time.
     Per the doctor’s instructions, I covered my face with a mask and put gloves in the rare event that I left the room.
    
    By Friday evening (2.5 days later) all my symptoms were gone and I felt fine and almost back to normal. However, 
    I still had not gotten back my COVID test results. Surely I don’t have it, I thought.
    
    Here is the part that I really feel bad about. 
    Since I showed all the signs of COVID and my family physician and 3 of his nurses were exposed to me, 
    he had to shut his practice down. His nurses had to quarantine themselves for 14 days.
     Because he has a wife and kids at home and did not want to expose them,
     HE MOVED INTO HIS OFFICE! WHAT? Obviously, he wanted to know the test results more than I did.
    
    Anyways, the weekend was more of the same. Rest and more TV. 
    I got the call from the hospital’s virus specialist Monday morning who confirmed my infection.
    
    I have been advised to wait at least 7 days from the first symptom 
    and at least 3 days from the last symptom before ending the quarantine. 
    So Wednesday morning should be it. It’s actually quite liberating.
     From what they know now (and it could change) I should have an immunity to COVID for at least the short term (a few months) .
     Will I go out and lick the handles at Post Office? Of course not! 
    But I can now breath easier (no pun intended) knowing that it’s over for me…at least for this season.
    
    To reiterate, the reason for telling you all this information is that hopefully 
    what I went through (or varying degrees) will be the case for a vast majority of people.
     This will be another flu that we will have to deal with every season.
     They will come up with a vaccine (just like we have the flu shot). 
    Some people will still get it, some people won’t. Some people will die.
     Most won’t. They will have treatments that will shorten the time frame but I do not think COVID-19 is going away for a while.
    
    Do you realize how long it’s been since we eradicated a virus in humans? 
    A long, long time. 1977 with smallpox to be exact.
     So far, the first AND ONLY viral disease we have eradicated. 
    Amazing isn’t it? With all of our technology, we have only eradicated one virus! Ever! Look it up on Wikipedia.
    
    So…if you are reasonably healthy then stop freaking out. Of course,
     be cautious and do all that they recommend doing: 
    social distance, wash hands etc. However, I think that in the next X months, 
    70% of us will get it. Some might not even know they got it and beat it. 
    All of this that the government is requiring will just slow the spread. But it will not stop it.
    
    If you are UNHEALTHY then follow the above guidelines more carefully 
    AND when all this BS is finally behind us and we get back to normal,
     stop smoking or vaping and get your lazy ass to the gym. Walking is not a sport.
     If you don’t sweat it doesn’t count. 
    Stop making excuses for why you can’t go and put in the time at the gym or on a treadmill somewhere and get healthy.
     Stop eating junk food. Diet Coke is not a health food.
     I used to be overweight by 30 pounds. I decided about 10 years ago that
     I was not going to continue to wear baggy clothes to hide my body.
     It’s not easy but it’s not hard. It’s a transformation of what you consider important in your life. Once you start, it’s addicting. 
    I promise.
    Last edited by Jetta ,97; 03-24-2020 at 11:48 AM.
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  12. #39
    Professional User Jetta ,97's Avatar
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    And one more interesting video :



    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFN5LUaqxOA
    Master Technician for German cars
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    https://www.advancedcarelectronics.com/
    Mk6 COLOR cluster in Mk5 -CLIK

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  14. #40
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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