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Thread: General Corona Virus Discussion

  1. #51
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Thanks for clarifying, Dave.

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

  2. #52
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    So this is pretty interesting.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/

    So who is Neil Ferguson?

    He's the British epidemiologist who predicted over 2 million Americans and 500k Brits would die from coronavirus using his previous model, which went viral, and was a major influence on the UK's decision to lock down. But now he's predicting, "UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower."

    What's not clear tome is exactly why he's changed his estimate by a factor of 25.

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

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  4. #53
    FoRT jyoung8607's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    So this is pretty interesting.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/

    So who is Neil Ferguson?

    He's the British epidemiologist who predicted over 2 million Americans and 500k Brits would die from coronavirus using his previous model, which went viral, and was a major influence on the UK's decision to lock down. But now he's predicting, "UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower."

    What's not clear tome is exactly why he's changed his estimate by a factor of 25.

    -Uwe-
    Possibly because the early model shows the catastrophic effect of doing nothing, and following the advice of subject matter experts on how to avoid most of the catastrophe, combined with seeing what happened in China, they are avoiding most of the catastrophe. As the article you linked to outlines.

    If you're looking for mountains of actual data: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=covid-19+d...d&t=hb&ia=news

    Let's make it a little personal: https://covidactnow.org/state/FL

    If you're looking for subtle-as-a-sledgehammer transparent dog-whistling: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=wuhanic+plague&t=hb&ia=web
    (oh look, Free Republic on the frontpage of results, color me shocked)
    Silence gives consent.

  5. #54
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jyoung8607 View Post
    Possibly because the early model shows the catastrophic effect of doing nothing, and following the advice of subject matter experts on how to avoid most of the catastrophe, combined with seeing what happened in China, they are avoiding most of the catastrophe. As the article you linked to outlines.
    In order for this to work, you'd have to lock the entire world down long enough to eliminate every last reservoir of this virus, or lock down a country or region long enough to eliminate every last reservoir within, and seal its borders. If you don't, the moment you remove the restrictions, it comes right back and starts spreading again, and all you've done is to delay it.

    Unless of course there are other factors at play that the western world doesn't understand yet. Why hasn't the spread resumed in China? They're open for business again. It is simply not plausible that they've eliminated all reservoirs there. OK, data out of China must be taken with a lot of salt. How about South Korea? They seem to have gotten things under control with minimal disruption. How is that possible? Ditto for several other countries in Asia that had cases earlier than we did.

    Quote Originally Posted by jyoung8607 View Post
    Let's make it a little personal: https://covidactnow.org/state/FL
    That's a cool, but extremely simplistic model that's based on some very questionable assumptions, many of which are based on the Imperial College paper that I referenced above; the one that previously predicted 500k deaths in the UK.

    This model uses a CFR of 1.1%, which is not unreasonable based on the currently reported/confirmed cases. However we know for a fact that a considerable percentage of cases are completely asymptomatic, or have very mild symptoms, and thus are not included in the denominator of that calculation. But let's ignore that for the moment. The model also assumes an additional 1.0% CFR if hospitals are overloaded. This implies you can cut the total number of deaths by approximately half if you slow things down enough that everyone gets treated. It does not come anywhere close to explaining Dr. Ferguson's factor of 25 reduction in the the total number of deaths.

    Do you know what might explain it? This Oxford paper. Based on its modelling, a whole lot of people have already had the WuFlu, but had such mild (or even totally asymptomatic) cases of it that they were never reported, and they now have some level of immunity. Now I doubt it's really 50%, but even if it's only 5%, that means there simply aren't very many doublings left before herd immunity is reached and this thing peters out. This would also explain what we're seeing in Asia.

    Quote Originally Posted by jyoung8607 View Post
    If you're looking for subtle-as-a-sledgehammer transparent dog-whistling: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=wuhanic+plague&t=hb&ia=web
    Since when have you known me to be subtle?

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

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  7. #55
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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    Since when have you known me to be subtle?

    -Uwe-
    This is reasonable and maybe accurate, however, I have witnessed very tactful behavior!




    It does not come anywhere close to explaining Dr. Ferguson's factor of 25 reduction in the the total number of deaths.

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  8. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack@European_Parts View Post
    This is reasonable and maybe accurate, however, I have witnessed very tactful behavior!
    Tactful and subtle are not synonymous.

    Watch this, and listen carefully:
    https://www.c-span.org/video/?c48640...-birx-modeling

    Birx was a doomer until today.

    Selected quotes:

    "In the models, either you have to have a large group of people who are asymptomatic, who've never presented for any test, in order to have the kind of numbers that were predicted..."

    "So either, we're only measuring the tip of the iceberg of the symptomatic cases, and underneath it are a large group of people [...] or we have the transmission completely wrong, because..."

    "The predictions of the models don't match the realities on the ground in either China, South Korea, or Italy."

    Alternate, somewhat more complete video link:
    https://youtu.be/q4o7nryuJao?t=6166

    -Uwe-
    Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
    Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

  9. #57
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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    Tactful and subtle are not synonymous
    I thought it was huh but I'm no literary genius either?

    subtle


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    tactful×
    tact·ful
    /ˈtak(t)fəl/
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    adjective
    adjective: tactful
    having or showing tact.
    "they need a tactful word of advice"
    Similar:
    considerate
    sensitive
    understanding
    thoughtful
    delicate
    diplomatic
    discreet
    discerning
    judicious
    politic
    perceptive
    subtle
    careful
    courteous
    cordial
    polite
    decorous
    seemly
    respectful
    savvy
    mannerly
    Opposite:
    tactless
    indiscreet
    gauche
    Translate tactful to
    Use over time for: tactful

    From Oxford


    When was the last time a government official didn't equivocate or speak in disingenuous words?
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  10. #58
    Verified VCDS User DV52's Avatar
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    As of 24 March 2020, world wide: Confirmed cases=528,025, Deaths= 23,672 -> Ratio~4.5% -which is about the same as it has been throughout the course of the pandemic since it was an isolated "Wuhanic Plague"

    However, in among the statistics - there is Germany! Confirmed cases=50,852, Deaths=342 -> Ratio~0.7%!!! Absolutely remarkable!!

    We all joke about the discipline and eye-for-detail of German culture - but the Germans appear to be doing something right. If only other countries (Australia included) could do the same!

    Don
    VW Golf MkVII (MY13) - A3 8V hatch (MY17)

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  12. #59
    NostraJackAss Jack@European_Parts's Avatar
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    High test rates and control based on data.

    Is it because the resolve and patients of Germany understand ORDERS and SACRIFICE to gain a proper extermination of a problem?

    Germany understands the Threat is REAL!




    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...uzzles-experts


    Germany will be doing the Bail outs too!
    Last edited by Jack@European_Parts; 03-27-2020 at 07:15 PM.
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    https://www.drugs.com/news/vitamin-c...nts-89241.html

    Vitamin C May Reduce Ventilation Time in Critically Ill Patients
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