FiveThirtyEight has issued its final presidential forecast. There hasn’t been a lot of change over the past 24 or 48 hours, as most of the late polling either c…
fivethirtyeight.com
A lot of very good points made by Nate Silver here. Biden is being favored by a wider margin than Hillary was last time and Biden doesn't suffer from near as much apathy from his own side as Hillary did. Plus, there are plenty on the left who are pretty much "anyone but Trump" and are likely to show up in bigger numbers, not wanting to make the same mistake that was made in 2016.
The basic idea behind the numbers here are this could be a very close election, or it could be a Biden landslide. It won't be a Trump landslide, however. But it's close enough in some key electoral states that Trump could infact pull it off again, but the odds are against him.
Of course given what happened last time, I wouldn't bet against Trump either, even if Vegas has odds on Biden.
Speaking of, it is very interesting that while oddsmakers favor Biden, there are a lot of bettors putting money on Trump--hoping for a repeat of last time and make some money in the process apparently. Enough so that Draft Kings called the situation an "irrational market":
As Election Day voters are hitting the polls, the betting numbers are staying the same for the 2020 Presidential Election.
dknation.draftkings.com
Fivethirtyeight gave Trump nearly a 30% chance of winning last time. This time they're only giving him 10% chance, and combine that with the fact Biden is emminently more likeable to his own side than Clinton was, I don't think we see near as many apathetic democratic voters this time as we did in 2016, which should work in Biden's favor.
www.politico.com
www.independent.co.uk
www.aol.com
