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Thread: 2020 US Presidential Election

  1. #131
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bruce View Post
    Mike, I think the government has proved time and again they will borrow the money they cannot get through taxes.. So, just add some figure between $1 and $4 Trillion per year to the deficit.. for that is how to manage things today. Strap future generations with debts that cannot be repaid.

    Maybe Obama's Trillion Dollar coins would suffice?

    Ahh.. just print more money... it will all work out...
    When you push interest rates down to zero (or even negative, like in much of the core of the EU), "borrowing" is really the same as printing, isn't it?

    Somehow, I also don't think this will end well.

    -Uwe-
    The engineering problems are likely insurmountable. It would be like proposing to land a rocket booster section on a barge floating in the middle of the ocean.

  2. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    Somehow, I also don't think this will end well.

    -Uwe-
    Was not suggesting any thing other and was all done tongue in cheek.. but I agree printing money by whatever means they have to will be the solution should something like this be implemented.

    I agree, will not end well.

  3. #133
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    ^^^^^Perhaps not surprisingly (given my leftist-pinko-socialist leanings), I like the idea of UBI, at least the concept appeals from a theoretical perspective - albeit I agree that getting a mind-shift amongst political leaders and the middle class (in any country) will be somewhat problematic and I suspect that the fiscal elite will never support UBI.

    Although I'm not as close to the UBI debate up there in the land-of-the-free (it's a discussion that's not purely American), I had understood that there were some offsets to ameliorate the funding requirement. Isn't UBI intended to replace entirely ALL of the current US programs for lower income folk (like food stamps and housing relief)? If so, doesn't this reduce Mike's $4 trillion number (I think I read somewhere that the estimate was closer to $1.5 Trillion/yr for the US economy - a mere "bag-of-shells" (bagatelle) in the US economy!

    As i said, UBI needs a radical mind-shift away from the way that folk think today, and it's easy (and understandable) to be critical of such paradigm shift proposals. But criticism itself is not sufficient in these debates because criticism alone does not address the problem that constructs like UBI are attempting to solve - in this case, the universal impact (in all modern economies) on societies from automation. Without intending any offense, it should be incumbent on everyone who derides an idea, or a proposal that tries to solve a fundamental looming societal problem to explain the nature of the critique AND to propose an alternative. Again, with respect - simply saying the UBI has these problems doesn't advance a solution. And, since there is (I suspect), no single, or perfect solution to these complex issues - holes in any proposal will (and should) abound. Ultimately, I suspect that it's a question for us all to find the least worse solution - rather than the best!

    I guess with our relatively comfy life styles - it's easy to focus on elements of the UDI proposal that results in the "free-loader" effect. But as our societies start to fracture and as the growing sub-culture of disenfranchised citizens becomes more and more significant - the threat to our comfy life styles becomes real. I have no idea how this threat will pan-out in various societies, but what I'm fairly certain-of is that we had better have planned for this eventually long before it manifests - else a far more profound solution will be imposed on society by the displaced sub culture!

    Perhaps the impact of a fractured society (read - massive unemployment in an environment where a relative few appear to be wealthy) will be different up there ( you guys have a strong gun culture too - which is unique and this may be impactful), but it's difficult to imagine a good scenario if a fair solution is not agreed and implemented long before needed (IMO)- even for America.

    Don
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  4. #134
    Ross-Tech Employee Mike R's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DV52 View Post
    Although I'm not as close to the UBI debate up there in the land-of-the-free (it's a discussion that's not purely American), I had understood that there were some offsets to ameliorate the funding requirement. Isn't UBI intended to replace entirely ALL of the current US programs for lower income folk (like food stamps and housing relief)? If so, doesn't this reduce Mike's $4 trillion number (I think I read somewhere that the estimate was closer to $1.5 Trillion/yr for the US economy - a mere "bag-of-shells" (bagatelle) in the US economy!
    Well the devil is in the details. I expect "all", is... to be frank, a lie.
    Medicare (2018) $582 Billion
    Medicaid (2018) $629 Billion
    Affordable Care Act (2018) ~$700 Billion
    Social Security (2017) $945 Billion (so probably like $970 Billion)
    "Other Misc Welfare programs" (2018) $443 Billion

    I used Google as my source. There may be some key ones I'm missing, so please chime in if I have any glaring omissions. But what I have, all tolled is $3.3 Trillion. I am highly speculative that everything I listed would be included in the "UBI"

  5. #135
    Benevolent Dictator Uwe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike R View Post
    I used Google as my source. There may be some key ones I'm missing, so please chime in if I have any glaring omissions. But what I have, all tolled is $3.3 Trillion. I am highly speculative that everything I listed would be included in the "UBI"
    You mean skeptical? Yes, the value of Social Security and Medicare benefits for most retired senior citizens is far above $1000 / month. They would be totally up in arms if someone tried to replace those programs with a paltry $1000 / month UBI.

    -Uwe-
    The engineering problems are likely insurmountable. It would be like proposing to land a rocket booster section on a barge floating in the middle of the ocean.

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  7. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike R View Post
    Well the devil is in the details. I expect "all", is... to be frank, a lie.
    Medicare (2018) $582 Billion
    Medicaid (2018) $629 Billion
    Affordable Care Act (2018) ~$700 Billion
    Social Security (2017) $945 Billion (so probably like $970 Billion)
    "Other Misc Welfare programs" (2018) $443 Billion

    I used Google as my source. There may be some key ones I'm missing, so please chime in if I have any glaring omissions. But what I have, all tolled is $3.3 Trillion. I am highly speculative that everything I listed would be included in the "UBI"
    Mike: far be it for a semi-literate, sub 100 IQ, foreigner to be too dogmatic when responding to a native American about the UBI debate in his own country, so I need to be careful- but I just found this:

    "The two also disagree about whether it would be possible to fund a universal basic income even if you did make cuts to welfare as we know it. Stern has a plan to offer $1,000 a month to every citizen between the ages of 18 and 64. He estimates it will cost around $1.7 trillion, and believes we could find that by shuffling around our tax code"

    Now - yes, the "Stern" in the extract above is a former National Union Leader (I'm not sure how you feel about folk with this particular work persuasion), but I assume the number has some basis in fact!!

    And I do agree with you about the satanic importance of the detail - but the general rule should be to first garner a common acceptance of the overall principles. Then the details that support the agreed constructs need to be worked-out.

    Apart from the societal issues, the other interesting question in this debate is what happens to the country's economy if the broad population is displaced by widespread industrial automation and they don't have an income (and therefore can't afford) to buy the very goods that are produced by that automation.

    It's an interesting dichotomy -UBI suggests the concept that in the future, manufacturers will need to pay society (in addition to Taxes) for the right to sell goods into a market. In this dystopian world, this means that industrialists won't be able to simply keep all of the savings from automation - some of these profits will need to be plowed-back into the buyer side of the commercial transaction.

    Yes, radical stuff that young folk like you will need to contemplate and to solve !!

    Don
    VW Golf MkVII (MY13) - A3 8V hatch (MY17)

  8. #137
    Ross-Tech Employee Mike R's Avatar
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    One stipulation I would absolutely not budge from if a UBI were to be implemented is that it doesn't apply to those under the Age of 18 for reasons previously stated. It puts the country back in a state in which it's advantageous to have more children. For a myriad of reasons, I can not stand behind that.

    I personally believe there will always be jobs required and to be had, until the days where machines can iterate upon themselves and we proceed to see skynet. They will be more skillful required jobs, but they will be there. That said, I am entirely for "almost free (or at least drastically reduced with incentives) college" in order for students to acquire the skills necessary to perform these jobs under the correct circumstances.

    I'm not in favor of policies which deter human nature of ambition. There will always be some who fall on either side of that spectrum, but lets keep as many people as ambitious as possible. Enabling them to work their way up, but requiring them to put in the necessary effort and dedication to reap the benefits.

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  10. #138
    Ross-Tech Employee Mike R's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uwe View Post
    You mean skeptical? Yes, the value of Social Security and Medicare benefits for most retired senior citizens is far above $1000 / month. They would be totally up in arms if someone tried to replace those programs with a paltry $1000 / month UBI.

    -Uwe-
    Yeahhhh. I'm just going to bite my tongue on this one. Chances are the systems will be defunct by the time they mean anything to me. Yay!

  11. #139
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    hmm....... has Mr Trump made another of his "special deals", or are the two events below just a coincidence (extracts from News sites)?

    "Australia’s military will be entering the Persian Gulf after months of heightened tensions between the US and Iran. Australia looks brave, and even a little lonely, at the moment because, besides us, only the US and Britain are devoting military resources to securing freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."

    AND

    "As the leaders of seven of the most powerful countries prepare to meet in the coastal French city of Biarritz this weekend to discuss global issues, Australia will join them for the first time."

    Don
    VW Golf MkVII (MY13) - A3 8V hatch (MY17)

  12. #140
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