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Thread: EV Thread

  1. #31
    Verified VCDS User vreihen's Avatar
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    A coincidentally fitting article about the past 100+ years.....

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/114-o...133000800.html


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  3. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by PetrolDave View Post
    Yes they have their place, but they are NOT a replacement for what we currently have - and should not be oversold pretending that they are.
    Well, they will eventually.

    Look at the various manufacturer's 10 year plan and most if not all are switching to either hybrid and/or electric only.

    You are correct, they are not currently a full replacement, most entirely due to infrastructure.

    Until the gas companies get on board and start putting fast charging stations in the same lot as gas stations, it will be more limited.

    It also depends entirely on the situation, anyone who lives within 30-50 round trip commute could completely stop paying for gas.

    Of course gas right now is still relative cheap (in america anyway), but it has and will probably continue creeping up with the combination of storms recently and currently. And the vehicle prices need to drop lower still.

    Already there are governments stating intentions and plans to ban fossil fuel cars. I know, its unlikely a full ban will happen in the foreseeable future, but the manufactures already see the writing on the wall.

    My guess for the future of EV will be at least one of two things;

    - using capacitors for super fast charging. Either completely in place of standard batteries, or a combination. I don't think the technology is quite there yet of course, but I believe it will get here sooner or later.

    or

    - using a standardized removable battery, where you can pull up to a car wash looking building, pull in, have your empty battery dropped out the bottom of your car, and a freshly charged battery rotated in. in this scenario, it would be like propane canisters for your gas grill. Drop your empty can off at 7-11 and pick up a full one. No doubt this would require some kind of recurring service fee or leasing deal, or it could be included in the first few years of a new vehicle. And like above, the standardized battery could be used in conjunction with fixed batteries that you charge normally.

    Anyway, if we are not already past the tipping point, we are within a couple model years, then the car(t) will be before the horse, and the horse (gas/energy companies) will have to play catch up on the infrastructure.

    BTW, with my volt, so far 99% of my charging is at home via 220 dryer hook up. A couple times I have plugged into a free public charger (like at a restaurant/hotel), and I've plugged into a couple 110v outlets in a parking garage.

    But, due to the nature of the Volt, most of the time I just drive normally and plugin when I get home.

    I can go 600+ miles on 9 gallons of gas (charging at home every night). And if I lived/worked closer, could go even further without filling up. That's only ~66mpg. Some volt owners go a year or more without filling up.
    Last edited by D-Dub; 09-10-2017 at 12:18 AM.

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  5. #33
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by D-Dub View Post
    Well, they will eventually.

    Until the gas companies get on board and start putting fast charging stations in the same lot as gas stations, it will be more limited.
    I agree they will eventually but the timescales currently being mentioned are not achievable without changes in technology and infrastructure. In the interim hybrids and range extenders (like your Volt) are more likely to meet the need rather then pure EVs.

    So ignoring hybrids and range extenders (which will, we are told, only be an interim solution), let's think about making EVs meet the transport needs...

    First. it depends on development of batteries with higher Wh/kg values to reduce the weight penalty of greater range, and also with higher charging efficiency as currently most battery types need 1.4 times their capacity to recharge them - that's a huge waste of energy.

    Secondly, the gas companies are the smallest part of the infrastructure problem - where are the kW/MW/GW needed for the charging going to come from? There just isn't enough generating capacity in ANY First World country to sustain a large enough network of rapid charging stations, even sustaining low charge rate home charging stations requires them to be IoT devices which can be shut off to manage generating demand - which will lead to EV's that have been plugged in overnight not be charged as expected by the owner.

    For example, even a small EV like a Renault Zoe has battery sizes up to 44kWh. So to charge that to 80% in 30 minutes (the charging target widely quoted in the EU by car makers) requires 90kW for that 30 minutes. Multiply that by a large number of charging stations nationwide in simultaneous use, and you've got a requirement for several LARGE generating sites. Even batteries won't solve that situation on high demand days such as Memorial Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving, summer road trip season, etc.

    Are Governments planning ahead to provide that extra generating capacity? - Nope, they have their heads firmly buried in the sand.
    Last edited by PetrolDave; 09-10-2017 at 05:14 AM.

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  7. #34
    Verified VCDS User vreihen's Avatar
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    Do you think that continuous wireless charging from coils in the road would also melt the snow?????

  8. #35
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vreihen View Post
    Do you think that continuous wireless charging from coils in the road would also melt the snow?????
    Don't believe so.

    The magnetic field won't have much effect on the snow as its frequency is nowhere near the resonant frequency of water, and since the radiated heat from catalytic converters on IC vehicles doesn't melt the snow I don't see there being even that much radiated heat from passing EVs.

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  10. #36
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    Dave, excellent point regarding power generation.

    I think increasing battery sizes is as detrimental to the grid and would create huge strain on our power infrastructure as you state, I think the solution will be much more efficient use of smaller batteries (and/or capacitors), the increasing use of solar/wind/thermal energy sources *and* local storage of excess power during low usage periods.

    Like 'power stations' putting up solar cell covered roofing, having 1 or more battery storage systems (like what tesla is developing) or perhaps depending on environment a geothermal power storage system.

    I foresee smaller batteries, more efficient usage of power, and quick charging on every corner, to help distribute the load and timing of charging necessary for people to get around.

    I could also see, if the conditions were right, a future that moves to a more hydrogen powered-electric motive hybrid design. Similar to the volt and such systems, but driven by hydrogen (or other alternative fuels).

    Because as you say, even the current electrical grids are woefully inadequate for a 100% EV future.

    edit: also, regarding hybrids & REX, I disagree, I think they will becomes the primary EV driving force before we ever reach a 100% EV scenario.

    I also believe that once people experience a Plug-in-HEV, like the volt/bmw/leaf/prius, they will be quickly hooked on simply plugging in at home and avoiding as much fuel use as their situation allows for them.
    Last edited by D-Dub; 09-10-2017 at 11:12 AM.

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  12. #37
    Verified VCDS User vreihen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by D-Dub View Post
    I could also see, if the conditions were right, a future that moves to a more hydrogen powered-electric motive hybrid design. Similar to the volt and such systems, but driven by hydrogen (or other alternative fuels)..
    Yup, the hydrogen economy solves the problem of petrol-convenient fillup speeds. Of course, I have no idea how dirty the process is to make hydrogen. For all I know, they may be grinding up spotted owls and redwood trees to make that clean hydrogen that has only unicorns and rainbows as its only exhaust when used.

    Before I lose the opportunity to make the FUD point that gasoline engine opponents made back in the early 20th century about carrying a flammable liquid fuel source:


  13. #38
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vreihen View Post
    Yup, the hydrogen economy solves the problem of petrol-convenient fillup speeds. Of course, I have no idea how dirty the process is to make hydrogen.
    Electrolysis of water is currently the proposed method of generating hydrogen and oxygen - so that needs large generating capacity too.

    A large increase in generating capacity is the common thread to all alternative transportation power requirements, which proves again how good the power density is for both gasoline and diesel.

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  15. #39
    Verified VCDS User PetrolDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by D-Dub View Post
    edit: also, regarding hybrids & REX, I disagree, I think they will becomes the primary EV driving force before we ever reach a 100% EV scenario.
    We don't disagree that hybrids or REXs will become the primary replacement for IC vehicles, where we differ is that I refuse to call them an EV since both still require a gasoline/diesel distribution infrastructure.

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  17. #40
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    I am in Shanghai at the moment. Last night at a dinner with Automotive professionals working as Tier 1 suppliers - direct to OE - one of them told us that the Government announced last week that by 2022, they insist that 8% of all cars be full EV. There are 200 or more companies here developing EV and EV infrastructure for charging. The Chinese telling us this said it is a joke only because the power infrastructure could not handle the needs of that many EVs on the road.

    All the scooters and little bikes here have already gone all EV. Most of the busses and some trucks are all EV.. The Chinese are very serious about EV.

    So I asked what about the fact that batteries can't be recycled.. and what of all the carbon based power generation for this. Are we not just changing the type of environmental problem? And the Chinese answered:Yes it is all stupid! But, with government pressure it is good business.

    Expect the Chinese to be the leaders in EV technology because they have been working it hard for 10 or more years with real vehicles on the road.

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