Sell me on EVs.... VAG or otherwise...

[SaVAGeSoot]

I know there's a bunch of you around doing the EV thing.... I can't make my math work in my area... I must be overlooking something.
Someone better versed than me in EVs, help me see the light.

What info do you need from my end to make this a realistic discussion?

 

[Uwe]

I've said this for many, many years: Whether an EV makes sense depends primarily on your use case.

Commuting (say less than 100 miles a day), getting groceries, hauling the kids around? Sure. Charging overnight at home is almost certainly cheaper than buying fuel. Maintenance will be less too. Battery life seems to be a non-issue with modern EVs, provided you don't plan to keep the thing for decades, when calendar aging comes into play.

Long distance driving? Forget it. DC fast charging won't be less expensive than buying fuel, and besides, who wants to plan their route around charger locations and then hang out twiddling thumbs while the vehicle charges? No thanks!

I've finally found an EV I'm excited about:

Will buy for local use if it makes it to production. But for long distance, I'll stick with ICE for the foreseeable future.

-Uwe-

 

[SaVAGeSoot]

Well, that's just it.
If I give up on things like towing, range, etc... I can get by with an EV for DD duties.
But the buyin doesn't make financial sense. So if I look at unloading my existing '14 oil burner egg, then I could potentially get into a similar vintage EV for a little extra money on to of what I get for the egg.... but then I'm looking at an already degraded battery, lost range, lost capacity, and possible battery replacement needed in the near future.
Thus, I can't really come up with any feasible calculation to make it work as far as "savings" vs existing ICE.

It's just that there's so many people and calculators out there that simply claim you'll get $5k\year in savings....
I must be overlooking something no?

 

[SaVAGeSoot]

My daily commute is ~50mi round trip.
My annual mileage is ~15k mi on the egg.
Cheapest current electricity rate at night is $0.076/kWh

Math says, if I buy anything new, it will take forever to recoup the cost..... if I buy something similar in value, it's near EOL and has extremely reduced range, especially in winter... plus a battery failure makes it worth scrap weight at that point.

The only math I can make work is a scenario where I don't already have an ICE, and I need to buy a vehicle anyway.... in that case, buying something with OEM warranty for 10 years could yield savings over a similar ICE.

 

[Uwe]

Right, math for that would work if you need a new car anyway. It does not work to replace an existing, functional car.

But this is generally true even if we remove EVs from consideration. It's always been my contention that it's cheaper in the long run to keep fixing an older car than it is to make payments on a new one. OK, sure, sooner or later you get to the point where it's rusting out and literally falling apart, but before then, nope.

Of course rational economic decisions are not why most people buy new cars.

BTW, $0.076/kWh is very cheap. Assuming you could charge exclusively at that rate, and bought an efficient EV that gets ~4 miles / kWh, you'd be looking at less than 2 cents / mile in "fuel" costs. My truck, which gets mileage comparable to a TDI T'reg has a lifetime average fuel cost of 13.6 cents / mile. So at 15,000 miles / year, that works out to about $1740 / year in "fuel" savings, which is nowhere near enough to cover the payment on a new EV.

-Uwe-

 

[SaVAGeSoot]

Well, according to my limited research, I could potentially get into even cheaper charging rates.... I'd have to look at my current utility usage to see if it would make sense to switch to a different cost scheme from my utility provider. (currently on TOU but option to go ULO is there)



But even then, I still need to consider the cost of a home charger and installation, which around here would probably run me ~$2k in upfront cost.

 

[Uwe]

I could potentially get into even cheaper charging rates....

FWIW, I'm paying flat rate, about 18.5 cents / kWh in PA, and about 13 cents in FL. Thing is, I don't pay for much electricity at all because I have solar in both with full 1:1 net metering. Of course, just like buying a new car, it was not necessarily a rational economic decision.

But even then, I still need to consider the cost of a home charger and installation, which around here would probably run me ~$2k in upfront cost.

And there goes a year's worth of fuel savings!

-Uwe-

 

[Santos]

I traded my wife's 2021 Kia seltos on a used model 3 a few months ago.

The savings i expected went out the door the first month i owned it.

Week 1 - tire blew out
Week 2 - cracked the windshield
Week 3 - trunk filled with water and had to replace the trunk seal
Week 4 - ordered L2 charger and materials needed for the install.

Insurance is double the price for the same coverage i was paying on the Kia. Yearly registration is much higher in PA due to new EV road tax.

Will i save money overall... Maybe in a few years?

I was filling the Atlas once a week. Now i fill it once a month. This past month the tesla used 342kWhs of electricity , cost was around $64 to charge at home.

 

[Uwe]

Week 1 - tire blew out
Week 2 - cracked the windshield
Week 3 - trunk filled with water and had to replace the trunk seal
Week 4 - ordered L2 charger and materials needed for the install.

None of that can be blamed on it being an EV except item 4.

Insurance is double the price for the same coverage i was paying on the Kia.

Ouch.

-Uwe-

 

[Sebastian]

I've replaced my T6 California Beach with an ID. Buzz Pro in 05/2023. From 05/2023 through 09/2024 I had no AC charging at home and my AC charging in general (public chargers mostly) made less than 10 % oif my overall charging. The absolute majority was public DC charging, with reasonable rates (Germany, Austria, Italy) my overall cost were <0.05 €/km. My T6 had me at 0.08-0.09 €/km for comparison. This didn't factor in emissions rebates, taxes (which the ID. Buzz was exempt from) or maintenance costs - all for themselves are in big favor of the EV. My insurance on the EV is about half of what I paid for the T6. I do save around 5-6 k€/year over all compared to the T6.

Mind you, I drive ~30,000-40,000 km/year and most of it is long distance with the ID. Buzz not being a range monster at all. While I hear many non-ev drivers blaming long distance as a factor for not switching, those times are long gone. Your limiting factor is your bladder, a partner or kids anyways on how long an individual stretch can be and let's face it, in Europe charging costs aren't too bad. See Ionity's pricing all over the continent for example.

I've taken the ID. Buzz to the North Cape late year, the cost was the half than what my identical previous tours there with the California were for me. So cost wise, there is a clear answer for me. Comfort wise, the trade wasn't exactly on par in terms of size, since the Buzz is a slight down grade but I would not trade back at any given time.

FWIW, my home charging rates (charger installed in 09/2024) are dynamic, which means my low spots have been as low as -5 ct/kWh with an average of 17-20 ct/kWh over all incl. rather high winter pricing.

 

[Uwe]

Your limiting factor is your bladder,

My bladder takes me about one minute to empty. Count the time to park, walk into the WC and out, and call that stop 5 minutes. How much range can you add to your EV in 5 minutes?

I consistently do 450 mile trips in under 7 hours door-to-door, including one combined fuel/potty break and one additional potty break. I do 600 mile trips in under 9 hours, including one combined fuel/potty break and two additional potty breaks. It would not be possible to match those times in an EV.

Moreover, I'd have to plan stops around charging locations, whereas fuel and washrooms are available everywhere. Disclaimer: I do plan the fuel stops for certain locations that tend to have the best price, but that's easy when you have a 33 gallon (125 liter) tank and 850 miles (~1370 km) of range when it's full.

-Uwe-

 

[Crasher]

It isn’t just about charging costs, the depreciation horrific. Then there is battery life, my car is 22 years old with 201k miles on it, I can’t see any battery doing that. But what EV’s lack for me is the engagement and aural pleasure of an engine. Then with an EV you have end of life with the battery disposal, potentially a nightmare. If you do try and run one very long term or buy an old one then I can’t see battery replacement ever happening. Take the ID BUZ, it’s battery has a warranty of 8 years and 100k miles and even the VW literature states “Electric vehicle batteries generally have a lifespan upwards of 10 years (or 100,000 miles)”, I have seen 5 year old T5’s with 200k miles on the; so take a 5 year old 101k mile ID Buzz with a battery below the 70% range when the warranty kicks in. How much is a new battery without labour? £24002.08, that’s getting on for half the price of a new one. How much is a seemingly heathy ID Buzz going to be worth with over 100k miles on it?

 

[The WolfMan]

I traded my wife's 2021 Kia seltos on a used model 3 a few months ago.

The savings i expected went out the door the first month i owned it.

Week 1 - tire blew out
Week 2 - cracked the windshield
Week 3 - trunk filled with water and had to replace the trunk seal
Week 4 - ordered L2 charger and materials needed for the install.

Insurance is double the price for the same coverage i was paying on the Kia. Yearly registration is much higher in PA due to new EV road tax.

Will i save money overall... Maybe in a few years?

I was filling the Atlas once a week. Now i fill it once a month. This past month the tesla used 342kWhs of electricity , cost was around $64 to charge at home.

Insurance companies in the US don't pay broken windows? In Portugal is very common to have an insurance with an "Isolated glass breakage" (direct translation from Portuguese to English). You have an anual budget and if the replacement (parts + labour) is within the budget the insurance company pays.

I've replaced my T6 California Beach with an ID. Buzz Pro in 05/2023. From 05/2023 through 09/2024 I had no AC charging at home and my AC charging in general (public chargers mostly) made less than 10 % oif my overall charging. The absolute majority was public DC charging, with reasonable rates (Germany, Austria, Italy) my overall cost were <0.05 €/km. My T6 had me at 0.08-0.09 €/km for comparison. This didn't factor in emissions rebates, taxes (which the ID. Buzz was exempt from) or maintenance costs - all for themselves are in big favor of the EV. My insurance on the EV is about half of what I paid for the T6. I do save around 5-6 k€/year over all compared to the T6.

Mind you, I drive ~30,000-40,000 km/year and most of it is long distance with the ID. Buzz not being a range monster at all. While I hear many non-ev drivers blaming long distance as a factor for not switching, those times are long gone. Your limiting factor is your bladder, a partner or kids anyways on how long an individual stretch can be and let's face it, in Europe charging costs aren't too bad. See Ionity's pricing all over the continent for example.

I've taken the ID. Buzz to the North Cape late year, the cost was the half than what my identical previous tours there with the California were for me. So cost wise, there is a clear answer for me. Comfort wise, the trade wasn't exactly on par in terms of size, since the Buzz is a slight down grade but I would not trade back at any given time.

FWIW, my home charging rates (charger installed in 09/2024) are dynamic, which means my low spots have been as low as -5 ct/kWh with an average of 17-20 ct/kWh over all incl. rather high winter pricing.

Don't come to Portugal with an EV. At the moment public charging is "complicated".

Regarding your ID.Buzz, does the AC use R744 (CO2)? Unlike other refrigerants, you need to change the gas every few years. For Germany, I think 4. Portugal is a warmer country it needs to me changed every two. The last time I look into it, this service was only done at the portuguese importer workshop. I heard values around 600€.

For MY2025 changes were done to the time period.

It isn’t just about charging costs, the depreciation horrific. Then there is battery life, my car is 22 years old with 201k miles on it, I can’t see any battery doing that. But what EV’s lack for me is the engagement and aural pleasure of an engine. Then with an EV you have end of life with the battery disposal, potentially a nightmare. If you do try and run one very long term or buy an old one then I can’t see battery replacement ever happening. Take the ID BUZ, it’s battery has a warranty of 8 years and 100k miles and even the VW literature states “Electric vehicle batteries generally have a lifespan upwards of 10 years (or 100,000 miles)”, I have seen 5 year old T5’s with 200k miles on the; so take a 5 year old 101k mile ID Buzz with a battery below the 70% range when the warranty kicks in. How much is a new battery without labour? £24002.08, that’s getting on for half the price of a new one. How much is a seemingly heathy ID Buzz going to be worth with over 100k miles on it?

You find many examples on the internet of electric vehicles with big numbers on the odometer!

Depreciation in the UK is much worse because the government mandates that a certain amount of new vehicles must be electric, so importers/dealers dump electric vehicles in the market that no one wants to buy.

An EV is much better than an ICE. The bottleneck is in the "tank", ie the battery but there have been improvements in this area. I hope to see solid state batteries very soon.

But I am on your side. With all its faults, I still enjoy more the "soul" of an ICE.

 

[Uwe]

my car is 22 years old with 201k miles on it,

And I bet its range is identical to when it was new.

How much is a new battery without labour? £24002.08,

The nice thing about the way VW has done their MEB batteries is that they are modular and serviceable -- unlike certain other EV manufacturers. But yes, battery life should be a concern. Charging cycles (miles) will take their toll, but there's also calendar aging even if the car is driven very little. Right now, we plain don't know how they will hold up by the time they get to be 10+ years old, regardless of mileage.

-Uwe-

 

[Uwe]

Regarding your ID.Buzz, does the AC use R744 (CO2)? Unlike other refrigerants, you need to change the gas every few years.

What? Why?

-Uwe-

 

[Uwe]

Insurance companies in the US don't pay broken windows?

It depends on what type of insurance you buy, how much the deductible is, and what individual state insurance regulations are.

-Uwe-

 

[The WolfMan]

And I bet its range is identical to when it was new.

That is right. A well maintained ICE will see little to none changes in its range through its service life.

The nice thing about the way VW has done their MEB batteries is that they are modular and serviceable -- unlike certain other EV manufacturers. But yes, battery life should be a concern. Charging cycles (miles) will take their toll, but there's also calendar aging even if the car is driven very little. Right now, we plain don't know how they will hold up by the time they get to be 10+ years old, regardless of mileage.

Assuming that the wear on the modules is even, after 200-300k km/mi, if the battery needs to be replaced, I assume that the complete battery pack should be changed.

What? Why?

I don't know. Pressures in these systems are higher. I just check it on the PDF that I have about the ID.Buzz Maintenance. For Germany, until MY2024, refrigerant should be renewed every 4 years and from MY2025 every 8 years.

Note: For vehicles with heat pump.

 

[Uwe]

Pressures in these systems are higher.

Yes, much higher, which makes all of the hardware more expensive. I believe that's the primary reason there's resistance in the industry to adopt C02 as the standard refrigerant. Instead we mostly get R-1234yf now, which is pretty close to a drop-in replacement for R134a.

But that doesn't explain why it should be replaced on a regular schedule. It's not like C02 wears out in a closed system. The only thing I can think of is that the oil used in these R-744 systems wears out and they want to change it?

-Uwe-

 

[Crasher]

Too many answers. Miles is one thing, age is another. Yes the batteries are serviceable but (on the Buz) each module is £2800 and extremely time and care demanding to replace, plus bloody lethal! Do you really want some spotty oik replacing a cell on your next door neighbours car which then decides to spit its dummy out sideways at your cars fuel tank… no thanks. My real gripe, the one that makes me seethe is the subsides, why should I, a tax payer, give someone thousands of pounds to go and buy/lease and run a new electric car, just immoral.

 

[Crasher]

And I bet its range is identical to when it was new.


The nice thing about the way VW has done their MEB batteries is that they are modular and serviceable -- unlike certain other EV manufacturers. But yes, battery life should be a concern. Charging cycles (miles) will take their toll, but there's also calendar aging even if the car is driven very little. Right now, we plain don't know how they will hold up by the time they get to be 10+ years old, regardless of mileage.

-Uwe-

Actually it is better due to remapping, a 6 speed conversion, lower rolling resistance tyres and fancy “Merican” spark plugs. I can fill it up in five minutes and cruise at 70 mph for 550 miles 4 up with luggage before I need to do it again; their ain’t an EV out there that can do that or even dream of it at 23 years old.