Ukraine

[Jetta 97]

I've lived in Ukraine, my wife is Ukrainian. We live the UK now and are doing everything we can to help Ukraine. How many here were woken up Thursday morning by family crying down the telephone to alert us of what happening? We're in contact constantly and we're even feeling Putn's invasion with worry, lack of sleep... which is nothing what the people of Ukraine are feeling right now.

War crimes are happening in Ukraine, indiscriminate bombing, killing of innocent people, Putin's troops looting shops for food, wearing the Ukr colours, ambulances being hit... I can go on... I haven't been brainwashed or a f##king sheep just following he herd. First hand accounts are available for the world to see.

An innocent lady looses part of a leg due to the air attacks in Kharkiv... it's gruesome so I caution you not to watch...

https://t.me/uniannet/33365

This is the reality of Putin's false "liberation", 'Our army attacks only military facilities, civilians will not be harmed....' Such lies. Such a waste of life...

What about past 8 years that those 2 province were under attack of Ukraine , Dictating and Etc , Why the Ukraine did not let them be separated when 80% of them voted for separation.
Every story has 2 sides , I am not saying War is the options , it is NOT , and always innocent people will pay price believing in them Idiot politicians.
Do you really think this just happened all of the sudden , Like I said before , to look things real way ,we need to look back , very far back.
At the end they are one nation , they all came from same roots , the Politicians are who make them to be enemy and separated .

 

[JMR]

@mattylondon i am sorry for what s happening there but i d say that you re biased given the fact that your better half is Ukrainian. The casualties of war are chilling , be it 1 person or 1000 persons. Political party in Ukraine should ve played the cards better and not get involved into false promisses by EU. Think of it...someone is selling arms right now at fabulous prices , someone is making money. When was ever war about the rights of people ? Wars are happening for a reason and that is money making. They will come to collect later. Financial aid ? Bullshit. I got financial aid to go to college and had to repay every penny of it. No aid is ever free brother. I see that Ukraine claims that 100 k civilian enrolled to fight the Russian. Good for them..what about the rest of able bodied men ? Part of them i saw them driving through Romania towards Poland , Germany , Italy. There must be few millions of men in Ukraine..why just 100 k accepted to get fighting ? Something is amiss there let me tell you.

 

[Adam]

@JMR: this sounds almost like some kind of alternative version of Ukraine's history. Can you put "your version" together please, so I could have a better understanding of it?

On 11 May pro-Russian separatists organised a ‘referendum’ on the sovereignty of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the results of which (89.07% and 96.2% respectively ‘in favour’) were falsified, and whose voting processes did not meet democratic standards...

The separatists reported that turnout at the ‘referenda’ was 75% in the Donetsk region and 81% in the Lugansk region. Both the turnout and the results should be regarded as preposterous, and the plebiscite itself as incompatible with Ukrainian law, which does not provide for local referendums. The separatists possessed only rudimentary lists of voters (the central authorities denied them access to the register of voters); there were widespread instances of casting votes for other persons, and there were no observers. There was no security for the ballots; they had already been handed out on the streets several days earlier. The separatists failed to create a sufficient number of voting points, and in many places in both districts the 'referendum' did not take place at all.

The separatists reported that 1540 polling stations were opened in the Donetsk region (during the parliamentary elections in 2012, 2444 polling stations operated), but this number seems to have been strongly and repeatedly overstated. They did not provide any numbers for people participating in the vote, but merely gave a significant overestimate of the turnout. Given that 3.35 million people are entitled to vote in the Donetsk region, and 1.8 million in the Lugansk region (based on the Central Electoral Commission of Ukraine’s figures), with such a small number of polling stations it would have been physically impossible for 75% and 81% of those eligible to vote. The polling stations were mainly set up in the cities, but even there their numbers was insufficient. In extreme cases, such as in Mariupol, only four polling stations were opened (there were 218 in the elections in 2012), with 345,000 people eligible to vote. The authorities in Kyiv called the referendum “an illegal act of effrontery”, organised and funded by the Kremlin...

You are welcome: https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2014-05-14/farce-referendum-donbas

Am I also biased?

 

[Mike R]

Switzerland breaks neutral status to sanction Russia over Ukraine invasion

In a statement on Monday, Switzerland's Federal Council said it would adopt sanctions against Russia effective immediately. The measures, it said, would match those of the European Union, of which Switzerland is not a member.

 

[vreihen]

I was just watching Al Jazeera's coverage of the war. They showed a clip from the UN General Assembly today, where the Ukrainian ambassador said something along the lines of:

...if he (Putin) wants to kill himself...he should not use his nuclear arsenal...but rather do what happened in Berlin...in a bunker...in May, 1945.....

 

[JMR]

@JMR: this sounds almost like some kind of alternative version of Ukraine's history. Can you put "your version" together please, so I could have a better understanding of it?

you are refering to what exactly ?

 

[Adam]

Ha, sorry. I just realized it wasn't you :-)

Why the Ukraine did not let them be separated when 80% of them voted for separation.

 

[gabrjel]

I see that actually internet made some bad things to us.
As before we were provided with information from newspapers, books and trusted people.

Now any troll can write something on social platform and depends on unknown algorithms will be pushed to multiple clients.

Thus in result we have people which don't deny genocide happening in Ukraine.
(yes I know that Ukraine is "winning" in social media)

But whatever arguments will be given (like: they still have water and power) anyone can't dicusss with:
- independent country Ukraine was invaded by Russia
- war/fight is not happening on russian territory but in Ukraine

If anyone is trying to explain motivation of russian president should take one step back, it's to late to try to excuse him.
He got to far with his sick ambitions.

Václav Havel: commented in 2007 direct into the point "Russia does not know where it begins and ends. Aware of its historical borders, be it from the tsarist or Soviet period, it still considers them their own."

 

[DV52]

The first wave of soldiers were just there to parade around ...however everybody knows or just realized that the "real" thing is still in Belarus waiting. Everybody is waiting...and there are few key players that wanted this war. Someone is making money. Do you really think that the help in the form of military aid comes free to Ukraine ? Nearly 1 billion of euros ? I don t think so..at the end of it all somenoe will present a bill of charge. The news are all skewered . The same images playing over and over. Do you think Zelensky makes his moves by his judgement ? He s just a puppet . Every country has it s own president puppet. The thing is that the puppet is controlled by a side or the other. It just so happens now that he is controlled by EU..when it was controlled by Russia they threw him out in the so caled EuroMaidan. How about Crimeea ? Internationally it is not recognized as being part of Russia now. However DW ( Deutsche Welle news outlet ) went there to see if the Crimeeans have been coerced . What did they find ? Crimeeans dancing on the street and people waving flags of Russia thanking God for reunification. It s free to watch on the web. Really eye opener right ? To me , the playbooks are already made at the highest levels which sometimes bypasses presidents ot the will of the people of a respective country. Yes , there are protests in Russia..maybe 1 million people ? However , out of 140 millions ( 100 millions maybe not considering the children )what 1 million when the rest are not saying shit ? So that tells me that they do support Putin. Anyway , as i ve said before , Russians are waiting , the world is waiting but i think that outcome of it has been planned and known of for a long time.

JMR: Again without intending any offense - I believe that you are mistaken and I think that it is dangerous to confuse the money aspect of war with the reason for war; they are two entirely different things.

Said bluntly and regardless of the the words of the war mongers (or anyone else) - there is ONLY one reason for war; POWER.

In game theory, war can be viewed as a "net sum game" - meaning that the total POWER between the warring nations is a fixed quantity (it doesn't change). The sole reason for war is to determine how to redistribute that fixed quantity. Or said in terms of an analogy - the size of the pie (i.e. total power) doesn't change. The purpose of war is to determine how to slice-up the pieces!! Continuing this analogy, currently the power pie in Eastern Europe is sliced into 2 x pieces (Russia & Ukraine) - Putin want's Ukraine's piece!!

Yes, mine is a brutally dispassionate view of war - but war is brutal and one of the myths about modern warfare is that someone can impose rules on the exercise (such as, civilians are not involved) -which is of course, impossible nonsense! Ukrainian civilians are providing support to their soldiers, which is entirely reasonable - they are "involved" in the war.

So, I suspect that you are confusing cause-and-effect! Pursuit of POWER is the "cause" for war and the consequential changed flow of moneys to different entities is the "effect". It's important not to confuse the two because it distracts from identifying accountability!!

The other odd concept that I find difficult to understand is the argument that the Russian people also want Ukraine to return under Putin's rule. Why would the Russian proletarian (to borrow a Soviet term) want this? Is life under Putin so fantastic for ordinary Russians that they want to force-ably impose this on more folk? Very strange!!

Don

tick-tock
Russia's invasion of Ukraine started early morning, 24 February 2022 (EET) - at time of writing it's almost 1 March 2022. So 5 days (approx) and still not one city captured!! Me thinks escalation is near!

 

[gabrjel]

tick-tock
Russia's invasion of Ukraine started early morning, 24 February 2022 (EET) - at time of writing it's almost 1 March 2022. So 5 days (approx) and still not one city captured!! Me thinks escalation is near!

escalation has 30km and it's now 17km out of Kiev

 

[JMR]

@DV52 , no offense taken :
I think that it will come to a conclusion in few days maximum. We ll see if Putin was out for a full occupation or just to flex his muscles and get his way. Now, he says he wants three things : Crimeea should be recognized as Russian teritory , Ukraine not join Nato and 'denazification of Ukraine" . I personally think he will settle for Crimeea being recognized and Ukraine not joining NATO. The other is just a thinkg that he can let go of. Yes i agree to disagree with you about what a war means . Power comes with money and money comes with power. There are not two simplist viewes, you either have money or either power. Money as allways will corrupt. Power will corrupt. They are intertwined as one.As for why people would want to return ( Crimeea speaking ) under some russian form of govt? I don't know , maybe it's just nostalgia or roots, old ancient roots. Russia needs Crimeea to ensure access to Black Sea and access to Tartus , strategically speaking.. I am not sure if the same urge applies to Ukraineans , surely not . But the goal of Russia is to keep Ukraine under a sphere of influence and a buffer even though they might not want to fully occupy it. There are still power plays going on as we speak . Sure, Putin wants one thing , Zelensky other thing, but in the end it will work out, some might let a bit slide , some might gain a bit but as of right now Ukraine does stand alone in the target sights of the " guns of Russian despot" . For how long ? EU still not willing to go to war, still not willing to cut Russia from SWIFT fully. They perhaps starting to realize that tit--for-tat affects everyone. Yes , politics are dirty and sometimes politics are done screaming and sometimes under strictest secrecy. In the end , economics will speak. No country wants to go bankrupt over the "principals " of saving other country , never more true than in EU.

 

[DV52]

escalation has 30km and it's now 17km out of Kiev

@gabrjel : Hi. With the greatest respect for someone who is much closer to the action than this Antipodean - no, yours is a statement about the progress of the war. "Escalation" is about the changed way that Putin conducts the war.

Again, I'm clearly not close to the psyche of the Russian war machine - but I suspect that advancing 13 kms in 5 days is NOT a definition of victory in Putin's world. Maybe Putin expected a repeat of Crimea - but he is quickly being painted into a corner by the Ukraine response.

As I have said - the prospect of Putin as a cornered man is not good for Ukraine, it's not good for Europe and it's not good for Australia - IMO!!

Don

 

[Sebastian]

I'm always amused about the hubris of mankind to be an expert in everything. Over the last 2 years it was a pandemic, now we're at geo politics and war analytics. But let's face it, there are people who have the experience and skill to actually do analysis far beyond what anybody in this forum will likely ever do. One of those persons is Kamil Galeev, he has IMO written an extensive piece (actually a Twitter thread) on the subject which sheds light on plenty of subjects nobody here is taking into account.

Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…

threadreaderapp.com

(Via Thread Reader App for better readability.)

 

[JMR]

"Escalation" is about the changed way that Putin conducts the war.

Again, I'm clearly not close to the psyche of the Russian war machine - but I suspect that advancing 13 kms in 5 days is NOT a definition of victory in Putin's world. Maybe Putin expected a repeat of Crimea - but he is quickly being painted into a corner by the Ukraine response.

As I have said - the prospect of Putin as a cornered man is not good for Ukraine, it's not good for Europe and it's not good for Australia - IMO!!

Shit will not escalate more other than Putin starting to put "real" pressure on Zelensky. I think for now he just "scratched" a bit, Ukraineas seen a bit of blood , not really 'bleeding" so to speak . He is not painted in a corner, let's be realistic. It's just a strategy, he creeps closer with more arms...he 's just bidding his time. I think his army has the capacity to wipe Ukraine ( Kiev and bigger cities ) in 24 hours if not less. But then that would be hard for him to backtrack. It's one thing to wage a somewhat "war" where few hundred civilians are killed as " collateral' and another to fully blast cities and have tens and hundreds thousands of deaths , agree with me ? EU and US will not corner this man with no possibility of offering him an exit . The man might go fully crazy. In such situations, you just need to know when to apply pressure and when to stop.

 

[DV52]

I think that it will come to a conclusion in few days maximum.

I agree - my worry is how will Putin achieve the victory?

Now, he says he wants three things :

1. Crimeea should be recognized as Russian teritory ,
2. Ukraine not join Nato and
3. 'denazification of Ukraine"

I personally think he will settle for Crimeea being recognized and Ukraine not joining NATO. The other is just a thinkg that he can let go of.

I don't understand (1) - it's not something that Ukraine can give to Putin.
And (2) is a very big ask because the concession means that Putin can try the same tactics again at any time in the future without fear of the NATO allies involvement
And I don't understand (3) at all!!

Yes i agree to disagree with you about what a war means . Power comes with money and money comes with power. There are not two simplist viewes, you either have money or either power. Money as allways will corrupt. Power will corrupt. They are intertwined as one.

Again - I think there is an important distinction to be made between power and money - and the difference is particularly poignant in war; money is the means - power is the end.

 

[JMR]

I'm always amused about the hubris of mankind to be an expert in everything. Over the last 2 years it was a pandemic, now we're at geo politics and war analytics. But let's face it, there are people who have the experience and skill to actually do analysis far beyond what anybody in this forum will likely ever do. One of those persons is Kamil Galeev, he has IMO written an extensive piece (actually a Twitter thread) on the subject which sheds light on plenty of subjects nobody here is taking into account.

Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…

threadreaderapp.com

(Via Thread Reader App for better readability.)

I like that article but ..we'll see. Either this move will finish Putin , or Putin will gain whatever is to gain from it.

 

[JMR]

I agree - my worry is how will Putin achieve the victory?

I don't understand (1) - it's not something that Ukraine can give to Putin.
And (2) is a very big ask because the concession means that Putin can try the same tactics again at any time in the future without fear of the NATO allies involvement
And I don't understand (3) at all!!



Again - I think there is an important distinction to be made between power and money - and the difference is particularly poignant in war; money is the means - power is the end.

1 Crimeea A history of I think it was up for grabs by who's got the strongest balls. Ukraine does not have a strong claim to it either.
2 That it's his most ardent desire at the moment , will see how that plays out
3 Like i said , that was thrown in there so it can be perhaps "dropped" in the event of " talks"?

 

[JMR]

I'm always amused about the hubris of mankind to be an expert in everything.

not an expert here , just nearly shy of 50 years of seeing different politics plays and just exercising my brain ..really can't predict this one out though. Just having an opinion you know, everybody has one just like everybody has an asshole .Thing is , it just makes me read more and more about things on the subject , stirs the thirst for knowledge.

 

[vreihen]

According to Al Jazeera, the Ukraine Foreign Legion is recruiting volunteer soldiers in Georgia. Being a dumb American, my first thought was that an army of rednecks would repel the invading forces by Friday. Then, I realized that they were talking about the REPUBLIC of Georgia.

Anyway, if you want to do more than donate baby diapers and canned food while getting to use the west's finest handheld weapon systems, you now know where to sign up.....

 

[DV52]

Anyway, if you want to do more than donate baby diapers and canned food while getting to use the west's finest handheld weapon systems, you now know where to sign up.....

@vreihen: Australia (like your place) is a diaspora- and we have a reasonable representation of citizens from Ukraine (and most surrounding East European countries).

Anyhow, some of my fellow Aussies wanted to accept President Zelensky's request - however, apparently it's illegal down under (go figure)!!

"Foreign Minister Marise Payne said Australians who fought with non-government armed groups on either side of the conflict could be "committing a criminal offense". From HERE

Don