On this, you and I agree. I am waiting for China's play. While the world is watching Russia, the Chinese are flexing their muscles towards Taiwan.
I'm not sure they're planning to capitalize on the situation at this very moment, but given the situational parallels, they are absolutely taking notes. Taiwan was never going to be easy to take by force, but the geopolitical calculation just massively shifted as well.
Didn't we go down such roads before in world history? Aren't there similarities to the run up to both world wars?
Yep. große Lüge (the big lie), Lebensraum, everything. The fight against evil will never end, but there are good people in the world willing to fight for what's right, and by and large they step up when it's truly needed.
I don't know what's complicated about looking at a map, looking at hundreds of videos of bombed out cities in Ukraine, looking at hundreds of videos of protesters in Russia getting arrested, or reading Russia's new law making it illegal to call the war a war. But it turns out to be complicated for some. It's very simple for me.
I remember learning about WW2 in school and wondering how the
actual fuck humanity got to a point where millions of Jews were put into ovens and gas chambers. It's still horrifying, but let's just say it's no longer a mystery. Holocaust deniers had one excuse going for them, they weren't drowning in live high definition video. Those people still exist, but in 2022 that excuse is revoked.
Yes, I fear there is more to come besides high prices for fuel.
This is a legitimate fear.
There is no version of this where Putin wins. He could roll up all of Ukraine tomorrow (which won't happen, since it turns out Ukranians are pretty badass) and his reward would be occupation of a hellscape with a rifle behind every blade of grass while enduring redoubled sanctions with no end in sight, with a formerly feared military that got absolutely clowned in front of the entire planet, with a population waiting in breadlines none too happy with him.
I can't even think of a face-saving exit strategy. The closest thing I've heard talked about was maybe recognizing/legitimizing the Crimea part of the invasion in exchange for GTFO and STFU about joining NATO and/or EU. But if I'm Ukraine, I'm not sure if I even take that; time is on their side. Every day that passes, the Western world pours more supplies and materiel and intelligence support into Ukraine, the Russian supply and materiel situation deteriorates further, and the Russian economy tanks further. Every day the line is held is a strategic victory, and damn if they don't seem to be holding the line.
So yeah, we're currently determining the magnitude of Putin's loss, and whether he flips over the table when he walks away. And flipping over the table could be very, very bad.