Ukraine

[Uwe]

Remember that, "All war is based on deception".

Prigo has been moved to Belarus, which is only 150-200 km from Kiev by road. How many of his Wagner forces will quietly be joining him there rather that "returning to their bases" or signing up with the regular Russian army? Note that Wagner units made considerably more than 200 km progress toward Moscow very quickly before a "settlement was negotiated".

Now is it really Moscow's plan to take another stab south out of Belarus toward Kiev? I don't know, but if I were Zelensky, I'd have to consider the possibility and perhaps pull some troops from eastern Ukraine to defend the areas north of Kiev. If Zelensky does that, then the counter-offensive in the east is basically done, and if he doesn't, he puts Kiev at risk.

-Uwe-

 

[Crasher]

And now Putin is fighting a war on two fronts, always a recipe for failure.

 

[JMR]

Rest assured that Prigojin will not be forgotten just because he was forgiven . Sooner or later they will find him flying from a high rise unit or he ll be having a bad fishing/hunting accident. I do think that Putin truly absolved him of any charges but there are certain people with which the brief situation did not sit well. Putin will not have a hand in this just to be able to say ' i didn t know / do it " or he ll play the plausible denial card perhaps. Such backstabbing is hardly swallowed in Russia . So...give it a bit of time. We ll soon hear more.
Sadly , as far as the counter offensive goes .the west and even Zelensky are disappointed. They made no progress so far ...

 

[Uwe]

Rest assured that Prigojin will not be forgotten just because he was forgiven .

Indeed, if this whole thing wasn't a psyop, in other words if Prigo really did go rogue, he's a dead man walking. Making an enemy of Putin is a sure way to reduce one's remaining life expectancy.

Sadly , as far as the counter offensive goes .the west and even Zelensky are disappointed. They made no progress so far ...

Weren't they supposed to have driven Russia all the way back to the old borders and out of Crimea by now?

-Uwe-

 

[Sebastian]

No progress? Have you looked at the OSINT numbers of confirmed UA and RU losses and the above mentioned ISW analysis? For an attacking force, the UA has a very little losses in comparison to what RU looses in men and material. Several analysts claim that UA still has 3/4 of it's primary attacking forces in reserve and what we see is still not a full force attack.

The consensus on what has happened with Wagner's/Prigozhin's mutiny seems to be...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672991911538196482

 

[Crasher]

If I was Prigojin, I would live in a bungalow and when elsewhere, stay on the ground floor.

 

[JMR]

Oorghh...this is just shitty news...so much for green energy

OPEC says oil demand will hit 110 million barrels per day in 2045

Global oil demand will rise to 110 million barrels a day in two decades, bringing the world's energy demand up 23%, said OPEC.

www.google.com

 

[Crasher]

Yes but then Europe will be "net Zero" and so the planet will be saved no matter what the rest of the world does... we will be broke but smug in our wokenes.

 

[dieseldub]

Indeed, if this whole thing wasn't a psyop, in other words if Prigo really did go rogue, he's a dead man walking. Making an enemy of Putin is a sure way to reduce one's remaining life expectancy.


Weren't they supposed to have driven Russia all the way back to the old borders and out of Crimea by now?

-Uwe-

Yeah, later on Saturday, that was pretty much my thought.

Either Prigo is going to suspiciously fall out of a window, or the leniency he's being shown is because his actions have helped Putin identify officers that aren't truly loyal, and they will be dealt with harshly while Prigo gets a pass.

Other sources have mentioned that Putin did have advanced knowledge of the march towards Moscow.

Bizarre either way you slice it, but Putin is indeed now 'handling' officers/generals who were a little too eager to march towards Moscow to take out Putin. So, schemed or not by the Kremlin, it did provide them useful intel about the loyalty of those within their own ranks...

 

[Uwe]

Either Prigo is going to suspiciously fall out of a window,

What, Polonium tea is no longer a thing?

-Uwe-

 

[JMR]

What, Polonium tea is no longer a thing?

-Uwe-

Still is along with an assortment of flying pants trend I hear on the news that couple generals cannot be found lately
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ours-swirl-after-mercenary-mutiny-2023-06-28/

and another had a bout of broken neck while playing with his atv at 3 in the morning in his backyard ( or it was one of the two missing , i wasn t paying attention but i caught the news ticker )
Let me edit that..he didn t break his neck but aome other serious injuries

In Russia, the general of the Ministry of Internal Affairs crashed on an ATV

Photo: University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation Alexander Travnikov unsuccessfully rode an ATV Alexander Travnikov was taken by helicopter to one of the hospitals in St. Petersburg. Lieutenant General of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia Alexander...

www.perild.com

 

[Crasher]

He may have been riding his ATV in the backyard at 3am, Vodka does strange things to your head in the wee small hours...

https://flic.kr/p/2n8QMgW

 

[Uwe]

When Ukraine launched its big counteroffensive this spring, Western military officials knew Kyiv didn’t have all the training or weapons—from shells to warplanes—that it needed to dislodge Russian forces. But they hoped Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness would carry the day.

They haven’t. [...]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrain...-risks-stalemate-in-fight-with-russia-f51ecf9
or if that link runs you run into a paywall, use this one:
https://archive.is/glcRN

So let me get this straight: We (the collective "west") knew Ukraine's much vaunted spring offensive wouldn't work?

But we hoped it would anyway?

Since when is hope a plan?

-Uwe-

 

[RGH0]

I think the answer is that it was not "Hope" but an assessment of a grey area as to how much Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness combined with Russian incompetence could compensate for the slow delivery of the needed western aid and weapons to tackle the Russian defensive lines. There is no certainty in War and always some degree of of concerns that preparations may not be adequate but at some point you have to take the risk and hope it pays off at least in part.

The outcome of the fighting this summer is far from clear at this point in time but Ukraines steady progress continues and looks like its risk is at least paying off in part. Russian desperation as shown by its civilian target attacks and sacking and arrest of generals and other critics is increasing which shows it is getting more and more worried.

The Murdoch press and media ( e.g. Fox news) is generally anti-Ukraine and often parrots Kremlin talking points. The Wall Street Journal bias is generally not as overt and its analysis often more factual compared to Fox News but the bias is still present.

 

[Zenerdiode]

Since when is hope a plan?

Hope for the best, but plan for the worst…

 

[Crasher]

Expect the worst of everything and everybody and you are never disappointed at the outcome if you are wrong.

 

[jyoung8607]

So let me get this straight: We (the collective "west") knew Ukraine's much vaunted spring offensive wouldn't work?

But we hoped it would anyway?

Since when is hope a plan?

Right or wrong, someone can claim to feel upset about "the West" creating and controlling this war.

Right or wrong, someone can claim to feel upset about "the West" NOT creating and controlling this war.

Trying to claim both is self-refuting.

 

[JMR]

Rest assured that Prigojin will not be forgotten just because he was forgiven . Sooner or later they will find him flying from a high rise unit or he ll be having a bad fishing/hunting accident. I

Well....it didn t take too long did it ?

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash

The Russian private military company boss was on the passenger list of the jet which came down near Moscow.

www.google.com

 

[Uwe]

Well....it didn t take too long did it ?

No, and shooting down his plane certainly wasn't very subtle.

-Uwe-

 

[davisev5225]

Putin rarely pretends to be subtle.