Ukraine

[Uwe]

In simple terms Putin got pissed off when Nordstream 2 was abandoned by the Germans.

If you had spent billions building a pipeline and then your customer refused to "certify" it after it was complete and full of pressurized gas, I imagine you'd be a bit upset too.

Then he finally shut off the supply and blew up the pipeline in the final stage of his blackmail campaign

You have evidence that Russia blew up their own pipelines? They strike me as one of the least likely suspects, with the least to gain and the most to lose from this.

-Uwe-

 

[Uwe]

Germany has not started a buyer's strike.

What do you call the refusal to "certify" NS2?

nuclear power question has nothing to do with heat.

Of course, because totally impractical to turn electricity into heat, right?

The German NPP shutdown, already results in heavy decentralized installation of renewables, which makes us independent from other sources of energy, including LNG from the US/CAN.

I sure hope so, because we liked the low NatGas prices we had here before you guys started bidding them up by buying LNG from us.

-Uwe-

 

[Sebastian]

What do you call the refusal to "certify" NS2?

NS2 was never about capacity, NS1 had plenty of capacity even before it was recently damaged. NS2 was built in order to make Союз/Sojus & Дружба/Druzhba obsolete and exclude Ukraine as a strategic partner. There is more than enough capacity between the existing pipelines (which also includes the Yamal–Europe pipeline). We did not certify NS2, because it would have made us even more reliant on Russia (something you have condoned). There is zero strategic advantage for Europe/Germany, from both a supply as well as political point of view, to certify NS2.

Ref: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste...tei:Major_russian_gas_pipelines_to_europe.png

If this was an issue with capacity, all of the existing piplines (Sojus, Druzhba & Yamal–Europe) should be working very much near their capacity limits. Fact is, they are not! Yamal–Europe is actual in reverse operating mode, meaning Germany routes Gas to Poland.

Factbox-Europe's alternatives if Russia shuts off gas supply

Long story short, I am missing factual arguments in your train of thought.

Of course, because totally impractical to turn electricity into heat, right?

Literally nobody in Germany uses electric heating. Natural gas, oil, long-distance/district heating and then down in the lower single digits, you have electric heat. Even those numbers need further context. The regions where electric heat is mostly used are down in the south-west (where you spent a few years of your youth), which also means those are regions generally with higher temperatures during the winter time. Those low single digits refer to installations, not actual hours of use. Why is that important? Because such systems are often installed in summer homes, which aren't even operated for the entire year - let alone during winter times. So as usual, context is important.

Source: https://www.statistikportal.de/de/heizen

I sure hope so, because we liked the low NatGas prices we had here before you guys started bidding them up by buying LNG from us.

I believe some employee of yours has had great success with (ground based) heat pumps. Considering that you want to be self-sufficient in general, that may be a solution for you to look into.

 

[morris39]

If you had spent billions building a pipeline and then your customer refused to "certify" it after it was complete and full of pressurized gas, I imagine you'd be a bit upset too.


You have evidence that Russia blew up their own pipelines? They strike me as one of the least likely suspects, with the least to gain and the most to lose from this.

-Uwe-

Of course we have bullet proof evidence. This is just standard MO for the Russians. They bombed their own nuclear power station, bridge and POW camp.

 

[Uwe]

Literally nobody in Germany uses electric heating.

So nobody uses heat pumps? Because those most certainly are a form of electric heating.

The regions where electric heat is mostly used are down in the south-west

It's neat how you contradict yourself within a single paragraph. First it's, "Literally nobody in Germany" and then a couple of sentences later, you tell me where in Germany it's used the most.

I believe some employee of yours has had great success with (ground based) heat pumps. Considering that you want to be self-sufficient in general, that may be a solution for you to look into.

Eh? Being dependent on the electric grid is no more "self sufficient" than being dependent piped NatGas. In fact, the electric grid is far more fragile and subject to interruptions than piped NatGas is.

-Uwe-

 

[Sebastian]

Uwe, again - context. Nobody here considers electric heating to be reasonable in terms of efficiency. As I referenced before, the number of installations doesn't tell you about the amount of actual usage. Yes, heat pumps run on electricity, though as an electrical engineer I would have expected you to understand the difference in power consumption between generating heat from electricity vs. running a pump.

Being self-sufficient with natural gas is almost impossible, being self-sufficient on electricity is certainly possible. While the US power grid is indeed fragile by design, Europe's power grid is not as bad as you make it appear. That said, the more decentralized generation (and storage) you have, the less risk of an outage you have. But then you know all that and everything I read from you is "can't do" or "won't do" etc. - what I am missing (along all those cherry picked arguments) is actual solutions. Subsidizing a terrorist states income by certifying a pipeline, which will not help getting rid of natural gas in the first place, certainly can't be a reasonable or logic choice - even in your eyes.

I hate comparisons, but you'rs almost literally would imply not helping Europe fight Nazi Germany back in WW2. Because we have just that situation, except this time it's Russia with a holocaust-like agenda.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582926857749467137

 

[JMR]

i ve seen politicians advocate all kinds of idiotic ideas..so that's of no substance there..just politicians trying to appease someone.
like politicians did few days ago here voting to impose price cap on wood at 85-90 euros per tonne. Now, no one wants to sell a shred of wood...so there is no more solid wood on the market, no more wood pellets, nothing. So ..we're waiting to run out of gas and electricity too. Ain;t that idea idiotic??

 

[Sebastian]

And there I believe you are wrong, it is not just people talking on TV. Consider who these people are specifically. What their job is in the administration and what is actually happening on the ground. There is enough credible evidence (confirmed via multiple sources, via multiple nationalities and agencies from several countries/continents), of Russia deporting Ukrainians, illegally selling Ukrainian orphans to Russian families and literally mass murder of the civilian population (among a shit load of other war crimes, like fighting around and hiding in the vicinity of NPPs). You can choose to ignore that evidence, but is is not going away.

 

[RGH0]

Russia has had the shit kicked out of its special military operation twice to date, first around Kyiv and then around Kharkiv and its about to happen a third time in the South around Kherson. At least Russian appears to have learned to try to not donate some much weaponry to Ukraine as in the first 2 gift giving exercises

Not a good look for the mighty Russian army that started all this stupidity and wasted so many lives for the ego of a dictator with imperial dreams

Once is bad luck, twice is starting to put the pressure on the ruling Russian elites, three times and who knows what will happen.

At the beginning as some of you may remember when Putin was going to change the government in Ukraine in order to de-nazify the country, Zelensky observed who may or may not be in power by Christmas and he favoured his chances more than Putins. It will be interesting to see who celebrates Christmas

 

[JMR]

Yeah..at least Macron is starting to see the " benefits " of the conflict in Ukraine. . 1094% price increase for american suppplied LNG. Like i said , i hope that price comes with a barrel of vaseline

Macron Lashes Out At United States Over Double Standard Energy Policies | OilPrice.com

U.S. trade and energy policies have created a “double standard”, with Europe left paying higher prices for its natural gas, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday

oilprice.com

 

[RGH0]

A poorly written article and it needs to be read carefully. 421% increase in volume and 1094% increase in total cost so around 150% increase in cost per unit.

A lot of factors will have driven that increase such as cost of LNG freight with a current shortage of ships due to the increased demand and increases in gas costs to LNG plants, plus of course price gouging by everyone in the supply chain when they can get away with it.

Lack of diversification of supply sources you eventually pay for. Russian gas looked cheap until it became a political football


Never let a good crisis go to waste.

 

[Uwe]

From the article linked in Post #830:
“The North American economy is making choices for the sake of attractiveness, which I respect, but they create a double standard,” Macron explained at a Brussels news conference on Friday, with the United States enjoying low energy prices at home, while exporting at record prices.

Uhm, our own NatGas prices for most of this year have been somewhere between double and triple what they were for the last decade or so. Now I'm sure that's less than France is paying for American LNG, but converting piped gas to LNG and shipping it is not free. In fact, it's rather inefficient and expensive. So, Mr. Macron, if you don't like the price you're paying for American LNG, please feel free to find a less expensive supplier. Oh, and here's another idea, Mr. Macron: Ditch your 2011 ban on fracking (fracking is the reason we have cheap Natgas here) and ditch your 2017 ban on all new fossil fuel exploitation.

-Uwe-

 

[RGH0]

In Australia the LNG export companies are currently making very nice profits as they have gas supplies contracted at relatively low prices or actually produce the natural gas going into their LNG plants and they are selling LNG cargoes on the spot market, where they have the capacity beyond their long term supply contracts, at very high prices.

A lot of their long term contracts are also benchmarked off crude oil prices so with the crude price increases they are doing nicely on these contracts also

Australia is the worlds second largest exporter of LNG but has a domestic shortage of natural gas as the gas producers can get more total revenue by exporting as much as they can and keeping the domestic market short and domestic prices high.

 

[JMR]

From the article linked in Post #830:
“The North American economy is making choices for the sake of attractiveness, which I respect, but they create a double standard,” Macron explained at a Brussels news conference on Friday, with the United States enjoying low energy prices at home, while exporting at record prices.

Uhm, our own NatGas prices for most of this year have been somewhere between double and triple what they were for the last decade or so. Now I'm sure that's less than France is paying for American LNG, but converting piped gas to LNG and shipping it is not free. In fact, it's rather inefficient and expensive. So, Mr. Macron, if you don't like the price you're paying for American LNG, please feel free to find a less expensive supplier. Oh, and here's another idea, Mr. Macron: Ditch your 2011 ban on fracking (fracking is the reason we have cheap Natgas here) and ditch your 2017 ban on all new fossil fuel exploitation.

-Uwe-

But Macron is mad ...he wants cheap " enerjie ". Macron borther of president " Bidan" . Give Macron free gas USA

 

[Uwe]

But Macron is mad

Mad / angry? Mad / crazy? Both?

-Uwe-

 

[JMR]

Both !

 

[NZDubNurd]

Mad / angry? Mad / crazy? Both?

-Uwe-

A little from column A, a little from column B...

 

[oscar262]

So back in the 90s Ukraine ended up with the #2 quantity of nukes in the world, this made Russia and US very nervous, so BOTH signed the Minsk Agreement which said BOTH would protect the Territorial Integrity of Ukraine against "all comers" and they gave up the arsenal for verified de-commissioning.
(they dint have the actual sw launch codes, obviously a trivial exercise with 60/70s equipment for most on this forum)
They obviously didn t read history as pretty much everybody in history from Ethiopia(1930s) to Poland(WW2) got left in the cold once shooting starts...until the half-sleep get half-ready.
Lesson re-learned by Iran, North Korea, India, Pakistan, China and others, major Nuke armament development coming.....China is increasing their arsenal by 10x "officially".
Now Russia invades another country in the Year 2022, and threatens all with annihilation if "you help the victim" WOW
Unfortunately for the Russians, the victim in this case is well versed in the end-result of living under a Russian Overlord and will mostly fight to the death instead.
They already saw what happened in Crimea in 2014 when the Russian Army, stripped of all markings (the Little Green Men they were called) brazenly took over the whole place and cleaned house of all potential non-supporters in a classic Commie Purge.
Also, a bunch of other neighbors Having listened to Putin's Multiple speeches on the subject of Re-Building the Soviet Empire/by force if necessary (of course necessary as NO country has ever volunteered to join the Russian Federation) have gone "all in" with the chips to stop the Russians in Ukraine instead of their own country, as Putin has made no secret of his list.
And Bully for the Ukrainians! I thought the whole place would fall in 3-4 days too, and instead the mighty Russian Army has utterly failed with huge losses and proved they are a hollow force with crap equipment and low morale(look up videos of 1960's T-62 tanks now being brought to front from reserves as they seem to be almost out of T-80/72s, also some nice vids of WW2 era rustbucket trucks in use now on front, wow), of course they are not defending their homes and family which is what people fight for...not some BS about empire building, or changing a country from X to Y.
(even the US could not do that in Iraq or Afghanistan-even wasting an incredible 300M$ a day for 20 yrs there/plus 2500 dead and uncounted Afganis)
Cheers

 

[JMR]

Hmm..the Czechs won t have it anymore ...

Thousands rally in Prague against pro-Western government – DW – 10/29/2022

Protesters have called for the Czech government to resign amid rising prices. Many side with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and antagonism towards NATO.

www.dw.com

 

[RGH0]

The Czechs have short memories it appears.

The war would stop tomorrow if Russia stopped invading another country and withdrew its army. But Vlad has no intention of doing that as he knows it would be his head to go first