Ukraine

   #301  

morris39

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The bad guys may be in the catbird seat. So here a 'just so' story, write your version of you don't like this one.
If Russia can a) Militarily capture Ukraine east of the Dnieper in a few weeks and call a halt to the war.
b)Limit territorial claims to the Minsk agenda and maybe also Odessa as a bargaining chip
c) Limit semi-credible allegations of atrocities to the present ones
Lot of ifs but not clearly impossible.

Rationale for EU sanctions will weaken as the energy shortfall and trade begin to bite in addition to the already growing political/economic dissatisfaction. The cost of several million refugees will not help.
Russia's stopping the war may raise questions of the need for NATO. Possible acceptance of Russia's insistence that imperial expansion is not its aim (which is pretty irrational but possible).The (US) red lines in the sand lost credibility.
US influence in Europe is not likely to remain unchanged particularly if Russia resurrects possibility of entry into EU. Keep your friends close but your enemies closer (some Italian guy)
So is this all too much but maybe the best possible outcome?
 
   #302  

DV52

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Rationale for EU sanctions will weaken as the energy shortfall and trade begin to bite in addition to the already growing political/economic dissatisfaction. The cost of several million refugees will not help.
My credo; EVERYONE listens when money speaks - especially the righteous!! :thumbs:

However, those countries in the west that have imposed sanctions have painted themselves into the same corner as Putin.

If indeed Putin has redefined the meaning of success and then claims that it was always axiomatic that the objective of his "special military operation" was Dunbas - then the west has a problem because Eastern Ukraine folk will remain "enslaved under the brutal yoke of Putin's despotic regime " (I love the verse of propaganda!).

So, if this happens, how can sanctions be lifted and the west still retain the moral high ground ? How can the west sustain the obvious consequential claim that citizens in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are of lesser value than their West Ukrainian counterparts?

Now, don't get me wrong - I'm not saying that sanctions will last forever under Russian annexation of Dunbas - but what I'm suggesting is that an appropriate mourning period of sustained sanctions is probably not unexpected under this eventuality!!

Don
 
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   #303  

Uwe

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EVERYONE listens when money speaks
Yes, it's a very curious situation. My understanding is that Russian Natgas is still flowing through Ukrainian pipelines to Europe and Russia is still paying transit fees for it to Ukraine.

And of course western Europe is utterly dependent on Russian Natgas. Without it, life would become somewhere between miserable and impossible next winter. The infrastructure to import sufficient Natgas from alternate sources does not exist at present, nor can it be built in by next winter, and likely not by the winter after that either.

-Uwe-
 
   #304  

DV52

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My understanding is that Russian Natgas is still flowing through Ukrainian pipelines to Europe and Russia is still paying transit fees for it to Ukraine.
Of course you mean the very same Ukrainian transmission system that was originally built as an integrated part of the unified gas supply system of the former Soviets

The irony of the entire gas set-up (both physical and financial) in Ukraine is palpable - particularly in the context of the war!! It's utterly bizarre - but it does speak volumes about priorities!!!

I wonder whether the contract terms for payment of the fees is in US dollars? I would think that they are given the background of the original negotiators. If payment is in Russian Rubles - the Ukraine Government has made a big mistake. If payment is in USD, how is Russia accessing the currency given sanctions?

And these questions also apply to the flow of monies going the other way (i.e. for payment of GJs)- how are the transactions possible ?
And of course western Europe is utterly dependent on Russian Natgas.
hmm...... I repeat "even the ritcheous listen when money speaks"!!
 
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   #305  

morris39

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My credo; EVERYONE listens when money speaks - especially the righteous!! :thumbs:

However, those countries in the west that have imposed sanctions have painted themselves into the same corner as Putin.

If indeed Putin has redefined the meaning of success and then claims that it was always axiomatic that the objective of his "special military operation" was Dunbas - then the west has a problem because Eastern Ukraine folk will remain "enslaved under the brutal yoke of Putin's despotic regime " (I love the verse of propaganda!).

So, if this happens, how can sanctions be lifted and the west still retain the moral high ground ? How can the west sustain the obvious consequential claim that citizens in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are of lesser value than their East Ukrainian counterparts?

Now, don't get me wrong - I'm not saying that sanctions will last forever under Russian annexation of Dunbas - but what I'm suggesting is that an appropriate mourning period of sustained sanctions is probably not unexpected under this eventuality!!

Don
As I said ' just so story' , co-occurrence of improbable events, however they are not equally improbable. As you say money speaks and moral positions yield to (sufficient) self interest. No shortage of examples from history. A detente with Russia I suspect is more of a falling domino, if Russia were to demonstrate unexpected behaviour/capability. The events over the next few weeks/months will point the more likely direction. A protracted war would be the worst possible outcome I'm sure you will agree. A just so story shades a bit to wishful thinking.
In considering possibility of detente I failed to mention the cost effect of having to replace weapons donated to Ukraine.
 
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vreihen

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   #307  

RGH0

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older news says otherwise - what older news ?

don't struggle, let it come at you softly and visualize it - please expand on logic not hippy Karma

well, when there is no other source, you're gonna get it from wherever right? - lots of sources of gas Putin just sold it cheaper

Help me with the Logic of why its the Wests fault. Go back as far as you would like in history if that helps. A good starting point maybe the Wests support for Russia in WW2 after they signed a non aggression pact with a dictator who then turned on them. Appeasing dictators is generally not a good idea and Putin is just the latest dictator of many that people have tried to appease unsuccessfully
 
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PetrolDave

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   #309  

RGH0

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Some would say that the West provoked Russia by not supplying the Ukraine with weapons thus making Putin think it was an easy target and that the West would allow his conquest. But that is stretching the meaning of "provoke"
 
   #310  

DV52

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In considering possibility of detente I failed to mention the cost effect of having to replace weapons donated to Ukraine.
hmm...... in the current climate and IMO, the ONLY chance of detente with Putin and any "western" government (including Ukraine) is if it is personally organized by an omnipotent deity (snowball chance in hell)!!

Not sure what you mean by "replace weapons donated to Ukraine"? Why would Ukraine need to pay for these weapons under detente?

Don
 
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morris39

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hmm...... in the current climate and IMO, the ONLY chance of detente with Putin and any "western" government (including Ukraine) is if it is personally organized by an omnipotent deity (snowball chance in hell)!!

Not sure what you mean by "replace weapons donated to Ukraine"? Why would Ukraine need to pay for these weapons under detente?

Don
That's not what I meant. If EU decides against detente they are then likely in the polar opposite position ie increase military spending/stance per USA and any weapons given away will need to be replaced with costly (American?) ones. So another thing added to the balance scale.
I am unsure if my little story is taken as given. The unlikely ease of Russia's (possible) strategy success is in a different 'probability space' (as a scholar or you might say) from the possible outcomes of negotiations once the 'just so' events are taken as an accepted prior (without that there is no point to the story).
The decision makers would have to act more strategically. Russia and US seem to have definite strategies which may or may not succeed and but is existential for both (for power elites personally) and so not easily changed. For the US the risk is that Russia's success will be a turning point in the rate of decline of it's hegemon status.
EU on the other hand does not have a working strategy where risks balance gains. They are adrift and more likely to have to settle expediently.
 
   #313  

Uwe

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Another one (Russian General) bites the dust.....
Hey, give them some credit for leading from the front rather than hiding in cozy offices far behind the lines. :p

-Uwe-
 
   #314  

DV52

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Hey, give them some credit for leading from the front rather than hiding in cozy offices far behind the lines. :p

-Uwe-
Uwe: A personal recommendation for any military officer that happens to be a forum member - Consider modelling your leadership style based the philosophy of the Duke of Plaza Toro (it has lots of advantages - particularly in a war)!!

600px-Savoyard-Page092.png


Maybe it's time for Putin to consider this:
hmm........ my hope is that some time soon Putin will make the decision to take direct control of Russian forces in Ukraine.

History tells us that this is a not uncommon practice for despots to adopt: Ironically given the theater of war - Hitler did it for Operation Barbarossa when his Generals failed during the Soviet winter. And Stalin did the same but for the exact opposite reason - because his General (Zhukov) was becoming too popular. The decision was disastrous for both Despots

My hope is that Putin's ego is greater than his value of history!!!

Don
 
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   #315  

vreihen

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One of our region's congresscritters is proud of being listed on Putin's list of sanctioned western individuals. There was an article in our local news yesterday saying that Putin has cancer and is about to undergo surgery, and the congresscritter saying that he would not shed a tear if Putin died from cancer.

I haven't done a huge search yet to confirm the accuracy of this story, but did not see the cancer reported in the mainstream news headlines. It sort of makes sense though, based on Putin's behavior.

1) His comically-long meeting tables may be to isolate him from COVID, because they were giving him with immunosuppressant drugs as the initial cancer treatment.

2) He is suddenly concerned about his legacy.

3) He is not acting sanely, and could be described as delusional.

Just throwing it out there.....
 
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DV52

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One of our region's congresscritters is proud of being listed on Putin's list of sanctioned western individuals. There was an article in our local news yesterday saying that Putin has cancer and is about to undergo surgery, and the congresscritter saying that he would not shed a tear if Putin died from cancer.

I haven't done a huge search yet to confirm the accuracy of this story, but did not see the cancer reported in the mainstream news headlines. It sort of makes sense though, based on Putin's behavior.

1) His comically-long meeting tables may be to isolate him from COVID, because they were giving him with immunosuppressant drugs as the initial cancer treatment.

2) He is suddenly concerned about his legacy.

3) He is not acting sanely, and could be described as delusional.

Just throwing it out there.....
hmm.........IMO -it's maybe drawing a very long bow linking your 3 x dot points (above) to a possible Putin cancer scare!

As for the ridiculously long-table, that particular piece of Russian kit has been around since the Kremlin days and I've no doubt that Putin's use of said piece-of-kit is related to his time in said Kremlin

And, I've also no doubt that the table's principal use is more about delivering a STRONG message to the western media (and to the person seated at the other end), rather than being COVID/Cancer related (Again IMO)!!

Now, I'm not particularly interested in paralleling political actions with alleged religious events - but maybe there is a connection between Putin's self belief in deity status and another long-table meeting some 2,000 years ago?

f0566d29-vladimir-putin-emmanuel-macron-1.jpg
 
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   #318  

DV52

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vreihen: it seems that the source of the rumors is the strange telegram channel “General SVR”. And if the western press is to be believed (BIG assumption) - there is no solace in Putin's choice of temporary Dictator - Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Russian federal police’s Security Council.

If Putin dies on the surgery table, or becomes permanently incapacitated (by fair, or foul means) and Patrushev's temporary status looks more permanent - it might be a case of better the devil we know!!

I can't believe that I'm writing this -what an utterly bizarre situation to emerge in Ukraine war!!!

Don

PS: Totally off-topic, but how does a Despotic Dictator arrange medical surgery? Even in Russia, where Putin appears to reign supreme, there must be others wanting his throne - or at the very least, wanting regime change!. The opportunity for a "medical event" to occur in surgery has to be a real possibility (especially in the current circumstances with Russia's Oligarchs being so disadvantaged by western sanctions).

Tricky thing being a sick dictator - I wonder what safeguards Putin has implemented to insure that surgery is uneventful? Maybe the lives of the surgical team and the post-surgery state of Putin's health are linked?
 
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   #319  

vreihen

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The quoted congresscritter is a member of the House Intelligence Committee (an oxymoron), :D but I was thinking that he might have some actual confirmed information about the cancer diagnosis from friendly sources in Moscow.

Regarding his treatment, he certainly burned all bridges to western specialty hospitals with his aggressions.....
 
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DV52

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Regarding his treatment, he certainly burned all bridges to western specialty hospitals with his aggressions.....

Agree - maybe Putin should have remembered his own words!!
Despite_all_the_achievements_of_civilization__the_human_being_is_still_one_of_the_most_vulnerable_creatures_on_earth___1586728036_8368975.jpg
 
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