General Corona Virus Discussion

   #121  

Uwe

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it does indeed appear that if you are over 80 and you have a scrotum and you smoke and you are otherwise unhealthy and you live in a polluted area, then getting the infection means that you probably shouldn't make any long term plans!
Actually something that I find quite surprising: There have been a number of studies published lately indicating that smokers are dramatically under-represented among seriously ill WuFlu patients. In fact, there's now a study getting underway in France with nicotine patches to see if nicotine might be protective or useful as a therapeutic.

Now I'm not about to go back to smoking, but I'm not giving up my nicotine vape just yet either. :D

-Uwe-
 
   #123  

DV52

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Jack: With America's vast wealth and it's international excellence in educational facilities - do you think that someone on the Hill can teach Mr Trump how to make public announcements?

I cringe every time that I see him in these sessions: at the very least, he should be more skilled at transferring what's written on his cheat-sheets/auto-prompters into the spoken word. As a country's leader, the style of delivery is as important as the content in the message in public pronouncements (I think)

Don


Don
 
   #125  

DV52

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Jack: I can't open your video (the uploader ain't available here in the very deep south), but I assume that it's a copy of Trump's actual statement about ingesting/injecting disinfectant as possible covid cure.

I'm not sure what part of Trump's behavior is worse: the fact that the leader of the free world doesn't understand why a disinfectant is so effective in killing bacteria/virus (because it is deadly to ALL life-forms) - or his assumption that the rest of us mere mortals (and the American voters in particular) are so naive that we will believe his later explanation that he was being sarcastic. Clearly for non Trump zealots at least -the video shows that Trump was making what he thought at the time was an earnest suggestion to the scientists. I know that Trump was a TV personality, but he ain't that good an actor: he genuinely thought that his suggestion was valid in the media session!

On any reasonable basis, this has to be one of Trump's most bizarre pronouncements yet (and there have been quite a few) in perhaps America's most important crisis for a very long time.

Either way - sadly, another disturbing insight into the true psyche of the man (opinion of a foreigner).

Don
 
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   #127  

Mike R

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*deep sigh*

https://www.governor.pa.gov/process-to-reopen-pennsylvania/

A target goal for reopening has been set at having fewer than 50 new confirmed cases per 100,000 population reported to the department in the previous 14 days. So, for example, an area with a population of 800,000 people would need to have fewer than 400 new confirmed cases reported in the past 14 days to meet the target. An assessment will determine if the target goal has been met. The administration will work closely with county and local governments to enable the communities to reopen and transition back to work.

montco-chart-opening.jpg


montco-map-2.jpg


Yeah, I'm registering to vote against Tom Wolf.
 
   #128  

Mike R

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For reference, not a single day has gone by in the entire month of April that would be putting us at their safe threshold.

0WsfycG.png
 
   #129  

Uwe

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It's becoming obvious that continuing these restrictions are no longer about preventing an overload of the hospitals. This kinda makes me wonder what the motivation is....

-Uwe-
 
   #130  

Mike R

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It's becoming obvious that continuing these restrictions are no longer about preventing an overload of the hospitals. This kinda makes me wonder what the motivation is....

-Uwe-

I feel like it's mostly just to put up the image that he's a well intentioned individual who wants to keep the people safe no matter what. He thinks that when the election comes around he can tout that he made sure that it was absolutely safe for people to resume regular daily activity and that he wasn't "reckless" when allowing things to reopen.
 
   #131  

Uwe

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I feel like it's mostly just to put up the image that he's a well intentioned individual who wants to keep the people safe no matter what. He thinks that when the election comes around he can tout that he made sure that it was absolutely safe for people to resume regular daily activity and that he wasn't "reckless" when allowing things to reopen.
And meanwhile he's destroyed millions of peoples' livelihoods...

... including even people working in hospitals:
https://www.inquirer.com/business/health/tower-health-covid-19-furloughs-1000-20200421.html


-Uwe-
 
   #132  

jyoung8607

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It's becoming obvious that continuing these restrictions are no longer about preventing an overload of the hospitals. This kinda makes me wonder what the motivation is....
Okay, so your primary information source isn't Free Republic, and it's something/someone that uses the old "I'm just asking questions" gimmick.

Alex Jones? Glenn Beck? Where is this coming from? What suggestions did they give about this other mysterious motivation?
 
   #134  

Jack@European_Parts

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I personally think they should show videos of the sick people for public view, before and during on ventilator, plasma infusion + dialysis to see the extent of WTF they really don't know for a true perspective.
 
   #135  

Uwe

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What suggestions did they give about this other mysterious motivation?
How about you tell us what the motivation is for keeping most everything forcibly shut down at this point?

Early on, it seemed valid to try to "flatten the curve" in order to keep the hospitals from becoming overwhelmed with WuFlu patients. We've more than succeeded in that goal. Hospitals everywhere except the NYC area remain nearly empty, and even in NYC, they were never over capacity.

We now have a pretty good handle on who gets sick enough from this virus to require hospital treatment; it's primarily "senior citizens" with various underlying health problems. We should focus on trying to keep them from coming down with this. We've actually done a very poor job of that, as evidenced by the fact that roughly half of all the people who've died of or with this virus were nursing home residents.

But the rest of the population, the younger, healthier people simply aren't at much risk, and trying to keep everyone from catching this "forever" is an impossible task that will accomplish nothing except to leave a smoking crater where our economy used to be.
 
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jyoung8607

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How about you tell us what the motivation is for keeping most everything forcibly shut down at this point?
As much as I come to you and your company as subject matter experts for automotive advice, I will continue to go to the WHO and CDC and other subject matter experts for how to navigate a pandemic and how much reopening we can handle without stacking dead bodies on the sidewalks outside of hospitals. I may not like their solution, but I will follow it until such time as there's a better one, and no such thing is on offer in this thread.

The reopening plan offered by Pennsylvania is at least a start upon which further discussion can be based. You want to propose scaling the numbers up or down, do so. Complaining about "tyranny" isn't a plan, and it isn't even tyranny.

Early on, it seemed valid to try to "flatten the curve" in order to keep the hospitals from becoming overwhelmed with WuFlu patients. We've more than succeeded in that goal. Hospitals everywhere except the NYC area remain nearly empty, and even in NYC, they were never over capacity.
Because and only because the difficult but necessary measures were taken by state and local leadership, over the strident objections of the very same people now prancing around in crowds unmasked in front of capitols and hospitals holding signs with curiously well-coordinated slogans sourced from curiously well-coordinated "local" "grassroots" protest organizations.

Now the difficult but necessary steps are being taken to reopen things in a careful and controlled fashion. All this will be done bearing in mind the well-understood facts about how it spreads, that it can be spread by asymptomatic carriers, the latency period, and that hospital admissions are a dramatically lagging factor in measuring the spread, and by the time hospitals are even half-full, it means you're screwed in another two or three weeks.

We now have a pretty good handle on who gets sick enough from this virus to require hospital treatment; it's primarily "senior citizens" with various underlying health problems. We should focus on trying to keep them from coming down with this. We've actually done a very poor job of that, as evidenced by the fact that roughly half of all the people who've died of or with this virus were nursing home residents.

But the rest of the population, the younger, healthier people simply aren't at much risk, and trying to keep everyone from catching this "forever" is an impossible task that will accomplish nothing except to leave a smoking crater where our economy used to be.
Primarily is a long way from exclusively, as more than a few healthcare workers crushed with guilt after they brought it home to their spouses or children, even infants could tell you, a few of whom have died, but let's accept that for the moment. Naturally there will have to be a risk/reward tradeoff somewhere. You can't close the nation to save one life. But let's make it easier.

Can we agree that the total death toll of 3,000 (rounded up) of the September 11th attacks was a truly grave and serious event worthy of a national response to prevent it from happening again? Because right now, in the USA alone, we're putting up that number every 36 hours. Maybe we should try to develop some sort of strategy to stretch it out to only a September 11th attack once a week or so?
 
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   #137  

Mike R

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What's YOUR plan?

Didn't say I had one, but sooner or later this prevention is going to be worse than just letting things run their course for communities as a whole. You can't shut an entire city down for the whole year which is very possible what would have to happen under his current reopening strategy.
 
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   #138  

Uwe

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As much as I come to you and your company as subject matter experts for automotive advice, I will continue to go to the WHO and CDC and other subject matter experts for how to navigate a pandemic and how much reopening we can handle without stacking dead bodies on the sidewalks outside of hospitals. I may not like their solution, but I will follow it until such time as there's a better one, and no such thing is on offer in this thread.

The reopening plan offered by Pennsylvania is at least a start upon which further discussion can be based. You want to propose scaling the numbers up or down, do so. Complaining about "tyranny" isn't a plan, and it isn't even tyranny.
You have more faith in those agencies than I do. I lost mine over the last 6 years seeing how they (specifically the WHO and the CDC, but also the FDA and various state health agencies) have utterly mis-handled tobacco harm reduction, and I'm being quite reserved in my wording here.

There are a half dozen states and an entire first world country that did not impose draconian lock-downs. Can you show us the dead bodies stacked outside their hospitals? Can you even show us a significantly higher transmission or fatality rate in those places?

The problem with PA's plan is that it sets benchmarks that likely aren't achievable in sort of reasonable time-frame, nor is achieving them necessary in order to prevent overloading the hospitals.

But if you'd like a different plan, here's one.

All this will be done bearing in mind the well-understood facts about how it spreads, that it can be spread by asymptomatic carriers, the latency period, and that hospital admissions are a dramatically lagging factor in measuring the spread, and by the time hospitals are even half-full, it means you're screwed in another two or three weeks.
Except the transmission rate had already rolled over before the lock-downs were imposed. In other words, voluntary measures were sufficient. I understand that this was not yet apparent at the time that the lock-downs were imposed, but it is now. Unfortunately, those who imposed them are now unwilling to admit they were wrong; that this level of restriction on people's lives simply wasn't necessary.

Primarily is a long way from exclusively, as more than a few healthcare workers crushed with guilt after they brought it home to their spouses or children, even infants could tell you, a few of whom have died, but let's accept that for the moment. Naturally there will have to be a risk/reward tradeoff somewhere. You can't close the nation to save one life. But let's make it easier.
Of course it's not exclusively, but the number of deaths under age 45 are for all intents and purposes negligible, and those over the age of 75 out-number all the rest.

Oh and thank you for pointing out one of the main vectors of community transmission: Health care workers. This should have been obvious since the nursing home in Kirkland, but somehow we did nothing about it.

Can we agree that the total death toll of 3,000 (rounded up) of the September 11th attacks was a truly grave and serious event worthy of a national response to prevent it from happening again?
A grave and serious event? Absolutely, as is this pandemic. But we over-reacted to both of them. The reaction to 9/11 gave us a surveillance state, the utterly useless TSA, and endless wars that cost trillions of dollars. The reactions to this pandemic are even more egregious, and just like then, people are willing to accept them, to trade their liberty and privacy for a false sense of security.

-Uwe-
 
   #139  

jyoung8607

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You have more faith in those agencies than I do. I lost mine over the last 6 years seeing how they (specifically the WHO and the CDC, but also the FDA and various state health agencies) have utterly mis-handled tobacco harm reduction, and I'm being quite reserved in my wording here.
Let's say then, that I look to them, before I look to the leadership of our executive branch who seriously proposed injecting people with bleach.

There are a half dozen states and an entire first world country that did not impose draconian lock-downs. Can you show us the dead bodies stacked outside their hospitals? Can you even show us a significantly higher transmission or fatality rate in those places?
You're non-specific as to where, but in places with very low population density, it's obviously slower to spread and easier to control, and less draconian measures are required. A great example can be found in your very own Pennsylvania county map.

The problem with PA's plan is that it sets benchmarks that likely aren't achievable in sort of reasonable time-frame, nor is achieving them necessary in order to prevent overloading the hospitals.
Citation needed for both statements.

But if you'd like a different plan, here's one.
Oh yeah, the plan from the "simple country doctor" with drug cocktail advice which aged very poorly. There's a reason that advice was coming from right-wing "news" instead of the medical community at large, and why those same "news" sources stopped talking about it very suddenly.

Except the transmission rate had already rolled over before the lock-downs were imposed. In other words, voluntary measures were sufficient. I understand that this was not yet apparent at the time that the lock-downs were imposed, but it is now. Unfortunately, those who imposed them are now unwilling to admit they were wrong; that this level of restriction on people's lives simply wasn't necessary.
Citation needed on literally every part of that statement, which I think you'll find difficult to supply.

Oh and thank you for pointing out one of the main vectors of community transmission: Health care workers. This should have been obvious since the nursing home in Kirkland, but somehow we did nothing about it.
I can't even.

A grave and serious event? Absolutely, as is this pandemic. But we over-reacted to both of them.
To laymen, any successful pandemic response looks exactly like an over-reaction.
 
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   #140  

PetrolDave

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If Sweden manages to limit/control the death rate due to Covid-19 without imposing a lockdown then the whole philosophy behind needing a lockdown will be shown to be unnecessarily damaging to economies IMHO.
 
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