General Corona Virus Discussion

   #101  

Uwe

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Due process of law != void.
Where is this "Due process of law" with respect to these lock-downs? Arbitrary "Executive Orders" from a Governor don't qualify as such, and neither do legislative acts that grant governors (or the POTUS) arbitrary emergency powers to violate people's basic, Constitutionally guaranteed rights.

You immediately did the right thing for yourself, your family, and your business. Why shouldn't others?
They should. But I think you know me well enough to understand that will I object to compelling people to do things, even if I personally believe they are the right things. Persuasion is one thing. Compulsion is another.

"are you healthy?"
Given the steps my wife and I have taken since the beginning of March, yeah, I'm pretty confident we are.

-Uwe-
 
   #102  

Jack@European_Parts

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All I know is for a month and a half, family member's or friends have to walk into a hospital without possible needed gear to serve other's or themselves, than get to go home to be self quarantined at home & are isolated by themselves and can't contact anyone other than by telephone or net.

Meanwhile watching fellow workers that are pretty much terminal on a ventilator, because they too were and are still in that battle or already DEAD!

I personally think this is a perfect reason for social medicine and should not be some fucking cash cow for insurance companies, big medical/pharmaceutical.

In the end ailments are the decided factor from panels at hospitals to prioritize who gets care and sent home to die & in end insurance companies will only deny coverage by some baby zebra clause & to complete the unjust enrichment contract.
Hospitals currently asking you to sign forms to circumvent assets being attacked in a bankruptcy, as are financial institutions, did you know that everyone, did you read the Federal Register yet to see what each of your represented official's drew up regardless of political party, well did you?

The thing that blows my mind are health care workers are not being tested, why?
 
   #103  

Jack@European_Parts

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You got the phrase "Wuhanic plague" from somewhere. You didn't make it up yourself. It's a phrase used only in communities who are, shall we say, not engaging in constructive dialogue about this problem. Or any other problem. That's the kindest possible thing I can say about it.


No Jason & yes even the Chinese which immigrated here & now which are US citizens joke about this and even laugh about it, trust me, it's easier to laugh/joke about a tragedy than to deal with it being politically incorrect, than cry about it.

Their biggest fear is just the fact that they are Chinese or Asian & they will be targeted by harassment and it being hidden & indeed they have been harassed.

5 times in 3 weeks I drive by the local Chinese food place I love & thinking well I'll maybe get take out and they are closed, that almost brings tears from anger and worry!

I had a Chinese friend come to me about this stupid shit already, with some idiot asking if they had BAT flavor Ramen noodles and didn't know what to say since it's Japanese, so I said you should of told them too try the snake flavor version & since more delicious and they laughed, sometimes laughter works sometimes it doesn't, nothing is perfect including silence or disingenuous alleged proper words, but I get where you are coming from too its called compassion!

The real tragedy is when you have to go to the local Lowes because the aforementioned people paid for a new roof not 5 months ago & with warranty but were ignored by Lowes agents & until I came down to have a discussion about it, now that is a fucking problem!
Don't worry I gave them a problem with the power of NostraJackASS to compel them!
 
   #104  

Jack@European_Parts

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So the rights guaranteed by the US and various State Constitutions are suddenly void because there's some threat? Sorry, but I don't accept this notion.

-Uwe-

Are not your rights only privileges and the privileges can be revoked when you tread on someone else, if you do that treading without certain level of responsibility to others you lose your privileges/alleged rights?

 
   #107  

Mike R

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0XViNeM.png


This is a... really really odd spike...

Day before (normal) tax day, as well as the day before the stimulus checks went out. ��
 
   #108  

Uwe

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This is a... really really odd spike...

Day before (normal) tax day, as well as the day before the stimulus checks went out. ��
I believe the odd spike was caused by deaths that were reported retroactively, all at once, and many of them aren't even confirmed cases of WuFlu.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nursin...virus-outbreak-appears-to-plateau-11586892250

New York City raised its likely death toll from coronavirus by 3,778 people on Tuesday afternoon, after city officials released new numbers counting people who were presumed to have died of the disease but who hadn’t tested positive for the virus.

-Uwe-
 
   #109  

Jack@European_Parts

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Are they reporting how many tests were administrated in total in each state and so we can see the ratio that was positive cases vs negative?

Seems like a missing important statistic no or is someone hiding it because the problem is much worse than the CDC are reporting to stem back fear?
 
   #110  

Uwe

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Seems like a missing important statistic no or is someone hiding it because the problem is much worse than the CDC are reporting to stem back fear?
Of course it's much worse. Way more people have caught this virus than the number of "positive cases" that have been reported. We're finally starting to see that now via antibody testing and as well as conventional testing of people who show no symptoms.

ETA: Oh, and I almost forgot, some very unconventional testing as well.

But that also means it's nowhere near as bad as we've been led to believe, because the fraction of people who get infected that require medical care, or that end up dead, is much lower than the 1-3% that's been claimed. If you only test people who have symptoms bad enough to be admitted to a hospital (as has been happening in NYC), then you're going to show an artificially high fatality rate.

-Uwe-
 
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   #111  

Mike R

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   #113  

Jack@European_Parts

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But that also means it's nowhere near as bad as we've been led to believe, because the fraction of people who get infected that require medical care, or that end up dead, is much lower than the 1-3% that's been claimed. If you only test people who have symptoms bad enough to be admitted to a hospital (as has been happening in NYC), then you're going to show an artificially high fatality rate.

-Uwe-

I have been advised by very conservative family medical professionals, that were pretty much where you were a month ago, in the direct inverse now!
The descriptions of play by play last night were not easy to listen too.
 
   #114  

DV52

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Interesting document to read over breakfast cornflakes here (I think)- some options more palatable than others in a post pandemic environment (I think)

Don
 
   #116  

Uwe

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https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/7FFA2F7C-831A-11EA-9BE8-4D38FB975E69
Opinion: Stock-market investors should pay attention to baffling coronavirus data from Boston
* The mortality rate may be significantly lower than the prevailing wisdom.
* A large number of people may already be infected compared with the prevailing wisdom.
* Herd immunity to coronavirus may be closer than generally believed.
I suspect all this is indeed the case. There are at least a half a dozen other studies from other places with evidence that point in the same direction.

But I don't see how that's gonna fix the sucking chest wound that the economy currently has, which is by no means priced into the markets (except oil, which seems to be acting as the proverbial canary in the coal mine).

-Uwe-
 
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   #117  

DV52

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^^^ Uwe: I've no doubt that you are correct about the under-reporting of covid contamination in the American community and the resulting over-statement of the mortality rate as a percentage.

Every comparative metric will have its problems and it's easy when dealing with statistics to forget that each death from the covid virus is an absolute tragedy for the family and friends of the deceased (as well as, for the individual) - but if we ignore the complication of the true community infection numbers (confirmed by testing, or otherwise) and instead if we look at covid mortality as a percentage of a country's population: as of 23 April 2020, USA =142.78 deaths/million.

Belgium has the highest number @ 548 deaths/million, but I suspect that it's problematic to compare countries with a small population (Belgium population is 11.4 million) to America's covid response for its massive 327 million citizens. I also expect that size of the land mass of the country is an important confounder in pandemic considerations- perhaps?

If instead we look at covid mortality in large population countries like:
Brazil =14 deaths/million (population 210 million)
Mexico = 7.7 deaths/million (population 126 million)
Russia = 3.6 deaths/million (population 145 million)
Indonesia = 2.37 deaths per million (population 267 million)
Pakistan= 1.06 deaths/million (population 212 million)
India = 0.5 deaths/million (population 1,352 million) - I suspect that comparison with this very high population is also problematic

What does this say about covid performance from America's leaders? I'm not sure - there certainly are vast differences in the other countries compared to America. But, given America's preeminence as the pinnacle of first world countries (with the brightest and the best of the rest of us) - the discrepancy should provide leaders a reason to at least pause and to ask "is our approach to this pandemic, the best for our citizens" - IMHO as a foreigner of course?

After all - efficacy in the management of the pandemic should transcend politics, economic efficiency, and the ego of leaders (regardless of which side of the house they sit)!!!

Don

PS: numbers from here
 
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   #118  

Uwe

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Don,

The US definitely screwed up in one big way: We didn't isolate the nursing home residents and staff. It should have been obvious that this was the right thing to do after the initial outbreak in a nursing home in Kirkland, WA. Roughly half of all deaths here in the US have been among nursing home residents, who are by definition very old, and most have underlying conditions ("comorbidities"), otherwise they wouldn't be in a nursing home to begin with. Of course we're not alone in this; the "roughly half" is also true of a number of other countries.

I'm confident the right approach to managing thing would be to identify the people most at risk, isolate them, and let the virus take its course in the remainder of the population. The fatality rate among younger, healthier people is close to negligible. What we're doing now (a half-hearted attempt to isolate everyone) is obviously ineffective, not to mention very destructive to the economy. And yes, you must take the economy into consideration. If you don't have a working economy, you won't have a functional/stable government, nor will you have resources to provide health care to those who get sick.

-Uwe-
 
   #119  

Jack@European_Parts

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   #120  

DV52

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Uwe: thanks for the explanation of local events -I've been reading a number of press articles about the age (and sex) effect of the virus: it does indeed appear that if you are over 80 and you have a scrotum and you smoke and you are otherwise unhealthy and you live in a polluted area, then getting the infection means that you probably shouldn't make any long term plans!

I'm sure that with time and benefit of experience that much will be learned about covid - but it seems to me that the the single distinguishing characteristic of covid is that it doesn't kill by virtue of it's own classification as a new-virus. Rather, what appears to be the stand-out feature of covid-19 and what appears to be its modus-operandi for death, is it's enhanced ability to exploit any weakness of it's host - much more so (it seems) than other similar viruses like the flue. I'm not sure if it's this aspect of the virus that has resulted in the age profile of survivors: in general, younger folk tend to be healthier and if the virus's true methodology for killing is through a back-door process, the increased survival of the young simply reflects this fact!

In any event, time will tell - but I agree that reduction of the current restrictions (in any country) needs very careful consideration - and of course, the other problem with with single-strand RNA viruses like this one is that they have an exceptional propensity to mutate.

Don

PS: and yes I agree with your point about the importance of the economy - fact is that decision makers must juggle a number of competing principles in the current environment. Ain't no good achieving low mortality if we come out of this pandemic with an unworkable economy!!
 
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