General Corona Virus Discussion

DV52

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There [is] a major flaw with your analysis. A substantial portion of the people who died "of" or "with" COVID were in such ill health to begin with that they would have died soon whether they got COVID or not, and thus were not "excess" or "unexpected" deaths.
@Uwe: haha - again, nice try!!!

Of course there is the question of whether reported COVID deaths were really the result of co-mobility factors. Ain't nothing special about this question.

Understand what you are suggesting here; you are asserting that across the huge volume of INDEPENDENT death certificates that were issued in 2021 (in EVERY case in USA written by a qualified medical practitioner -meaning someone skilled in their craft) - the error in diagnosis was systemically one way and the number of errors was so huge (in that "one way") as to make the reported findings meaningless!!

I'm assuming that you are not proposing that there was a concerted conspiracy by doctors for this alleged error- rather, I assume you mean that the errors were unconnected to each other (i.e. the errors were unrelated cases of wrong-diagnosis)

Just to put this astonishing assertion into context - in USA in 2021, there would have been 336,000 death certificates written by 336,000 independent medical practitioners (yes, some doctors would have written more than one certificate).

And your claim as to "a major flaw" in my calculation is that somehow (and for reasons known only to naysayers) 336,000 independently written death certificates had a single and substantial leaning towards incorrectly identifying the cause of death as COVID? Unbelievable!!

And so that I understand your wider position on this matter - not only do you make this astonishing claim about the errors made by medical practitioners in America - I assume that you also believe that EXACTLY the same behavior occurred in every other country of the world (because the reported COVID death numbers in 2021 were also high world-wide)!!

Again for context, these are the numbers for your suggestion - in 2021, a total of 1,884,146 death certificates were INDEPENDENTLY written world-wide by suitably qualified medical folk. So, notwithstanding a massive 560% increase in the size of the statistical cohort (over USA's cohort size) -your position is that EXACTLY the same error-dynamic occurred in the world-wide stats??? Absolutely amazing!!

And to extrapolate your extraordinary hypothesis, I assume that it is asserted that the EXACT same errors that occurred in 2021 have been repeated in the COVID death numbers for each year of the pandemic (because the reported numbers have continued to be high over sequential years). Positively phantasmagorical!!!

I guess in the total possibility of every conceivable option of statistical error, there must be a finite (infinitesimal) chance that your hypothesis is correct - but is this really the bed-rock for your position?

Bottom line = I've no problem with the notion that the COVID stats contain errors - but so does every other professionally collected survey. What gives me confidence about the underlying veracity of the COVID numbers (particularly in 1st world countries like USA) is the qualifications of those who author death certificates. Let's not forget that these are the same people that US citizen rely-on for their medical wellbeing. And to avoid a misunderstanding -no, I'm not saying that EVERY doctor's diagnosis of cause of death will be correct!
Don
 
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NZDubNurd

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The Doctors have to follow the guidelines issued to them.

Death certificates don't have a single "Cause of Death", but factors that contribute. The two are NOT differentiated in the Covid stats.

NZ TV One News Reports 5 "covid" deaths:
Two patients passed away with Covid-19 in Middlemore Hospital, on February 27 and March 1. Both people had unrelated medical conditions and had tested positive for Covid-19.
A patient with Covid-19 passed away at Tauranga Hospital on Thursday. The person was in hospital for an unrelated condition but had tested positive for the virus.
A patient also passed away at Waikato Hospital on Thursday. The person died of an unrelated medical condition and had tested positive for the virus.
> All are "Covid deaths" in the statistics reported offically :facepalm:.

My Wife is a Midwife and was looking after a pregnant woman who was positive on Friday. She is a "Covid case in Hospital" and counts statistically as an "in hospital" case... because she is admitted to hospital. My Wife says the patient is in Hospital ENTIRELY for pregnancy related matters and requires NO CARE for anything covid related. If she was to die of food poisoning though, she would be a statisically "in hospital Covid death".

The Covid has ZERO to do with her being in hospital, but she would be a "Covid death"

Another guy over here with a shotgun wound to the chest died "of Covid"... and he was a "ventilated ICU case" :facepalm: ... Same for the "unexplained deaths" of individuals in forced isolation... Not sure that self induced death should count as "Covid", but it does.

The numbers are misrepresentative. I understand this is how the W.H.O. guidelines say to do it and many countries report the numbers in a similar fashion.
 
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PetrolDave

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Death certificates don't have a single "Cause of Death", but factors that contribute. The two are NOT differentiated in the Covid stats.
And that's why the Covid death rates reported by the media worldwide have been (and historically still are) factually wrong, only a few weeks ago the UK Government finally admitted (and the media reporting has changed) that approximately 45% of the deaths reported as being "due to Covid" were in fact caused by other mostly pre-existing factors but the person just happened to have had a positive Covid test in the previous 28 days.

So if someone had a positive Covid test 29 days before their death they would not have been included in the "official" statistics but 28 days before they woud have - that makes a complete mockery of the data.

With this "mangling" of the data IMHO it's verging on impossible to make any proper analytical decisions, any person decisions just have to be based on personal experience and gut feel - and in a pandemic that is just unacceptable IMHO.
 

RGH0

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There is much over and under reporting of Covid deaths and other related Cpvod data worldwide driven by a wide range of factors.

As others have pointed out the more you test the more cases you have both from false positives but also from the greater discovery of real cases.

Then governments may want to supress deaths from Covid for their own purposes, have a look at the published Russian and Chinese data for example.

Then in freer countries doctors may report more accurately their honest technical decision on the cause of death and assign death due to some other cause but note a Covid infection but the government bureaucrats may categorise this as a Covid death for reporting purposes.

No absolutes can or need to be determined. A lot of people have died from Covid no debate about that, how many more or less from those reported is hard to tell.

My bet is that under reporting due to lack of testing in the third world greatly outweighs over reporting in a few 1st world countries due to the died "from" versus died "with" classification issues
 

DV52

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The numbers are misrepresentative. I understand this is how the W.H.O. guidelines say to do it and many countries report the numbers in a similar fashion.
@NZDubNurd : As I said - "I've no problem with the notion that the COVID stats contain errors". That's not the point at issue here

The hypothesis is that the reported deaths in USA (in particular) are so systemically biased to over represent COVID that the published numbers are grossly incorrect. Other than a fanciful hunch about faceless men in black suits with wicked intent - there's absolutely no evidence for this extraordinary supposition?

Understand that the numbers in my analysis were about actual deaths - so these folk actually died. Putting aside the question of how COVID caused fatalities are determined - the fact is that in 2021, fatalities rose by 15.5 % in USA in 2021 (according to Uwe).

What caused these vastly increased deaths?

It wasn't the normal range of causes because these were already accounted-for in the underlying numbers. Something else caused these deaths and the published numbers maintain that it was largely the result of COVID.

Now, when is a death caused by COVID and when is it caused by a co-morbidity illness which was present with the COVID virus? And frankly, does it matter?

I'm completely comfortable if you want to change the definition of a COVID caused death. Perhaps a better way of looking at these numbers is to consider that these are the cases where the COVID virus was either the identified cause of death, or COVID was a substantial contributor to the fatality.

This change doesn't alter the conclusion in my analysis in any way!!

But what I'm not comfortable-with is the absurd hypothesis that the alleged mis-attribution was really due to huge numbers of fatalities caused by vaccines and the twin hypothesis that vaccines actually promote COVID infections!! And I seem to be the one to call-out this nonsense!!

Don
 
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PetrolDave

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Now, when is a death caused by COVID and when is it caused by a co-morbidity illness which was present with the COVID virus? And frankly, does it matter?
I believe it matters, a lot.

One of the most important things to understand about any virus, infection, WHY is how likely it is to cause death so we know whether to treat it as 'just another cold' or like e.g. Ebola.

When deaths are attributed to Covid that actually were due to a co-morbidity the seriousness of a Covid infection is exaggerated and the measures taken to reduce/avoid infection by both officialdom and individuals are excessive leading to unnecessary mental and economic damage.
 
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Uwe

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Now, when is a death caused by COVID and when is it caused by a co-morbidity illness which was present with the COVID virus? And frankly, does it matter?
It also matters a great deal if one is trying to determine how many of the excess deaths we've had are are actually due to Covid and how many of them are due to some other reason(s).

Of course I'm sure the other reasons are completely inexplicable and can't possibly be related to injecting 2/3 of the population with brand new "vaccine" technology that's never before been approved for use in humans. Nope, couldn't be. Must be due to global warming or something like that.

-Uwe-
 

NZDubNurd

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@NZDubNurd : As I said - "I've no problem with the notion that the COVID stats contain errors". That's not the point at issue here

I just dislike that the numbers are taken at face value, and media/general public run with them.

I'd be fine with "errors", but not with misrepresentation that actually causes people more stress than they should really be feeling.
 

DV52

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I believe it matters, a lot.
It also matters a great deal...................

Oh my goodness........ more examples of obfuscation by complication!!

Of course it's important to understand the exact degree of harm that is being caused by probably the most dangerous pathogen of the 21st Century (counter to those that believe that COVID is no more serious than the common flu). Why wouldn't ANY reasonable person want this- I certainly want this and I agree that this is a worthwhile pursuit!!

That's not at all the issue here - and thinly veiled suggestions that my analysis fails because I don't believe in the importance of this type of research is just plain mischievous
.
Death certificates have a specific purpose and I'm proposing that we think more widely about statistics that attribute deaths to COVID. I am proposing that they are really "cases where the COVID virus was the identified cause of death" PLUS "cases where COVID was a substantial contributor to the fatality".

My statement "frankly, does it matter" refers to the fact that regardless of whether the death was caused by COVID, or if it was substantially caused by COVID in concert with an existing co-morbidity illness - it doesn't matter for the purpose of my analysis!! Again for clarity -it doesn't matter for the purpose of my analysis!!

It's not at all clear to me, but surely both of you would agree that attempting:
"to understand about any virus, infection, WHY is how likely it is to cause death so we know whether to treat it as 'just another cold'"​
through the lens of death certificates, has to be a futile exercise! Death certificates are a very blunt instrument and at best; they will only broadly indicate cause. Death certificates were never designed to provide the fine detail that is necessary for these more in-death studies. What's needed, what's required for these in-death studies is something entirely different (probably tissue samples, detailed case notes and maybe interviews with attending physician).

Of course it would be fantastic to have these in-depth studies completed. But we don't live in that fantasy world. We live in the real world where fatality statistics use death certificates as their database. It's the best that we have at present and the stats point to elevated deaths caused by COVID. Why does anyone find this result surprising given that coincident to the period of analysis a global pandemic raged through the world? It would remarkable if this result didn't happen - given the circumstances!!

Again, lets not lose sight of the underlying hypothesis here; what's being proposed is that elevated fatality numbers that have been attributed to COVID are wrongly reported and they are in fact the result of mandated vaccination!!

Let's not obfuscate this extraordinary hypothesis with the different question of using death certificates to provide detailed analysis of the contribution to the reported fatality from each co-morbidity illness -in cases where these are present

Don
 
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morris39

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The thread is getting somewhat personal so here is my contribution to the flame wars:).
I have got 3 shots but that is it. In the beginning (2020) the flue looked like a 100 year plague but now looks more and more like the annual variants. I have not been taking annual shots and have not had a cold in over a dozen years.
Anybody else have a change of heart?
 

Uwe

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here is my contribution to the flame wars
I won't permit it a "flame war" here. Reasonable people should be able to discuss a topic that they disagree on in a civil manner.

In fact, I have a fire extinguisher for anyone who resorts to personal attacks (aka "flames") -- the thread-specific "Reply Ban" function.

Anybody else have a change of heart?
Certainly not me. :D

-Uwe-
 

Crasher

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Nobody is counting the people who died here (I can’t speak for elsewhere) due to the NHS crawling up it’s own arse and sticking a butt plug in. I have lost two friends who were also customers due to a lack of care by the NHS, yes, one had serious health problems and the other a big strapping fella that surely modern medicine could have helped but they were all whispering huddled in a corner over a sniffle bug and which doctor they had been tupped by last night… yes I heard this in A&E (ER) whilst waiting to be seen with an upper respiratory tract infection for 10 hours only to walk out in disgust as “I have to WORK tomorrow”. To those of you abroad that don’t have a “free at the point of care” (wonderful socialist wording) national health service, if ever anyone suggests you have one… make them need it! $200 billion a year for 68 million people, “do the math” (why do Americans say that?) for your own population per capita and see “gas” (?) prices as well as other taxation make $4 a gallon look good value.
 

PetrolDave

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due to the NHS crawling up it’s own arse and sticking a butt plug in.
Why is it that to those of us who are 'customers' of the NHS the reasons for the problems in hospitals are blindingly obvious, but 'the powers that be' are totally oblivious to the causes and just 'play at the edges'?

- GPs largely refuse to have face-to-face consultations, so major problems and even cancer is undiagnosed.
- GPs no longer operate an out-of-hours service.
- Drop-In centres have largely been closed.
- Hospitals have major layers of non-clinical management who do nothing more than drive a desk.

Add all these together and the only option is to go to a hospital A&E, meaning they are overloaded with patients who in the past would have been seen by a non critical care part of the NHS.
 

morris39

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I won't permit it a "flame war" here. Reasonable people should be able to discuss a topic that they disagree on in a civil manner.

In fact, I have a fire extinguisher for anyone who resorts to personal attacks (aka "flames") -- the thread-specific "Reply Ban" function.


Certainly not me. :D

-Uwe-
Maybe the irony was too subtle, eh? For a usually good mannered thread resorting to dramatic language can seen like mild flaming. No?
 

Crasher

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The NHS needs breaking up and privatising and people who make themselves ill from eating too much, drinking excessively (thats me stuffed), smoking etc penalised for being stupid. Even sports injuries annoy me, why if you pursue a dangerous sport am I picking up the bill when you twat yourself? If I crash my car and I need an ambulance ride, I have to pay through my insurance, if you get drunk and face plant the deck busting your face, you get a free ride!
 

HMC

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The NHS needs breaking up and privatising
That is hardly an option for the millions of people that could not afford the excessive costs that the private system offers!
Regards HMC
 

Crasher

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Everyone should take out their own insurance, the UK has become a health system first and a country second, its inefficiency and corruption is crippling us, mind you the big reset will deal with that.
 

DV52

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Everyone should take out their own insurance, the UK has become a health system first and a country second, its inefficiency and corruption is crippling us, mind you the big reset will deal with that.
@Crasher : hmm........ probably a tad off-topic, but I assume that you are suggesting that UK should adopt a USA style heath care system.

Why would you want this? Do you think that USA's system is better, more efficient, less expensive, more effective, less "corrupt"?

Australia has a dual health care system that does allow for private insurance for those who want it (and for those that can afford it). But we also have a public heath system which is the default arrangement for everyone (even for privately insured patients where private hospitals don't have the facilities).

I believe that every country has an innate responsibility (and accountability) to provide medical care to its citizens - to the degree that taxes and other calls on the public purse allow.

The NHS needs breaking up and privatising and people who make themselves ill from eating too much, drinking excessively (thats me stuffed), smoking etc penalised for being stupid. Even sports injuries annoy me, why if you pursue a dangerous sport am I picking up the bill when you twat yourself? If I crash my car and I need an ambulance ride, I have to pay through my insurance, if you get drunk and face plant the deck busting your face, you get a free ride!

I don't believe that any government can selectively apply their responsibility for care to citizens "who make themselves ill from eating too much, drinking excessively", or "pursue a dangerous sport". The obligation is universal and EVERY citizen is treated exactly the same.

And frankly, despite your strong words - I'm sure that you don't really believe this either.

I can't imagine that you would refuse medical care unless an extra levy is paid by anyone who is dying in front of you - regardless of whether it's someone wearing an expensive business suit, or a poor-soul who has spent a life-time burying his/her troubles in the solace of a bottle!! And if you won't/can't do this - then it's wrong to expect your elected Government to do this!!

No, the Government obligation for care and our humane value-set transcends such a proposal!!

Don

Now - back to the matter of Ukraine
 
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Crasher

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It needs something doing, it is not fit for purpose. I have tried to get through to my GP for 4 days, eventually I got through last night! I also have private health insurance, I am self employed so I can't depend on the NHS to keep me at work.
 

PetrolDave

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It needs something doing, it is not fit for purpose.
Second that.

When living in Hampshire it was virtually impossible to get a GP appointment unless you phoned the surgery a few seconds after their phone lines opened at 8am and not possible at all to get an appointment more than 2 weeks in advance.

In Devon the GP was infinitely better and even during Covid lockdowns you could get face-to-face appointments with only a few days notice.

In Wiltshire I have never seen my GP not even when I registered as a new patient and the annual health checks for over 60s are a dim and distant memory for my relatives who have lived here for many years.

In England the NHS is fundamentally broken, especially the GP services, which is why hospitals are so overloaded and susceptible to even small increases in admissions due to Covid. Governments have tried playing at the dges and throwing more money at the NHS but neither of those approaches have solved the problem. What is needed is a root and branch reform, what form that will take is going to be subject to much debate and I suspect shouting!
 
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