Dave: I'm probably overthinking the morbidity ratio thing (I tend to do this when I know little about the subject matter - which is the case for most topics these days) but on the converse side - I'm equally convinced that there has been an over-statement in the reported death count for the virus.Absolutely - for example, in the UK testing of anyone showing symptoms was stopped several days ago and only those seriously ill enough to be taken into hospital are being tested.
So the UK figures for "confirmed infections" will be substantially lower than the "actual infection" numbers - if other countries are following a similar methodology then the morbidity rate will be significantly lower than suggested by using the "confirmed infection" numbers.
I couldn't agree with you more Don. We need to take Covid-19 seriously, BUT we also need to keep in perspective how it compares to other viruses such as H1N1 flu, SARS, etc.Again, I'm not saying that we should ignore the risks from the virus - I'm just seeking the facts (which appear to be different to news-product as reported in the media.
Dave: Exactly my point too!! What each country needs in a pandemic is a draconian leadership style and a compliant populous! Alas, this is completely antithetical to western democracies - if this change in dynamic is at all achievable, then it will take courage (both by Governments and in the community). Given your observations about crowds still congregating in public - I wonder what it will take for democracies to bend-to-Government-rule?I'm firmly of the opinion that much of the panic buying in many countries has as one of it's root causes the sensationalist nature of the reporting by the news media and the lack of control over social media posts.
Don - the UK official Opposition started out taking the same approach as the Government but once the "going got tough" they have slipped back into the old yah boo sucks style of an opposition party which, as you so rightly say, is not the correct approach in this "war" footing that we all find ourselves in.I'm not sure if UK has an enlightened opposition party, but in the form of Government that we inherited from UK - our opposition is still acting as an opposition party. This is not helpful because it has the effect of diminishing the message from Government.
You know, if Wuhanic Plague had a case fatality rate of 50%, a "draconian leadership style" might be warranted. But it clearly doesn't, and I'm starting to wonder if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease.Dave: Exactly my point too!! What each country needs in a pandemic is a draconian leadership style and a compliant populous! Alas, this is completely antithetical to western democracies - if this change in dynamic is at all achievable, then it will take courage (both by Governments and in the community). Given your observations about crowds still congregating in public - I wonder what it will take for democracies to bend-to-Government-rule?
Me too - when you consider that the real mortality rate is probably less than 2% (in the UK the current figures are wrong since testing is only done on those admitted to hospital which means 80% of those suffering are not included) it's really not a lot worse than unusual flu epidemics like H1N1 or SARS.I'm starting to wonder if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease.
Yeah because it also breeds this?You know, if Wuhanic Plague had a case fatality rate of 50%, a "draconian leadership style" might be warranted. But it clearly doesn't, and I'm starting to wonder if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease.
Yep, I think the reality is it will be much less than 2%.Me too - when you consider that the real mortality rate is probably less than 2% (in the UK the current figures are wrong since testing is only done on those admitted to hospital which means 80% of those suffering are not included) it's really not a lot worse than unusual flu epidemics like H1N1 or SARS.
Uwe: Clearly your question would be answered differently depending on who is asked.You know, if Wuhanic Plague had a case fatality rate of 50%, a "draconian leadership style" might be warranted. But it clearly doesn't, and I'm starting to wonder if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease.
Uwe: I hope your hypothesis about "herd immunity" is correct - certainly the first version of SARS (SW version 1) that appeared around 2002 and which had an almost two-fold increase in mortality rate (9.6%) has only reappeared in small numbers since. But, Covid-19 is a next generation virus which is far more virulent and it has a much wider spread now world wide, so I wouldn't be surprised if it will be part of our way-of-life in all communities, forever more............. how many doublings are left before this thing peters out due to herd immunity.
My Coronavirus Experience I finally received my Coronavirus diagnosis this Monday morning. It came back positive. I was hesitant at first about writing this by my intent in publicizing this information is to help people understand what cases like mine are like so I can hopefully reduce the fear that has enveloped the entire globe in a matter of weeks. We all hear so much bad news lately that hopefully cases like mine turn out to be the rule and not the exception. In no way am I minimizing the potential health threat that this virus poses to society, nor am I insinuating that there are not others with a similar health profile that are not far more affected by the virus than I was. I am simply telling my brief journey with the virus and what it was like. I am about to turn 50 this summer. I take care of myself. I eat well. Easy on the red meat and bread, fish/sushi whenever possible and as many home cooked meals as my kick-ass chef (My wife Morgan) will make. I exercise often…trainer 3 times a week, HIIT class at Neon Cycle and Strength (plug for my wife’s business) on Saturday mornings and racquetball on Sundays. Anyone that knows me knows that I hate sleep (4-5 hours at most). I love to go out with our circle of friends and I love vodka and limes (perhaps a little too much…of both). I rarely get sick or hungover and when I do, I will hardly admit it and just power through the day. However, I am very much in touch with my body and know when something is a little off. This past Tuesday night was one of those times that I felt a little off, maybe the onset of a soar throat or flu. Nothing to worry about, I thought. I just need to get an extra hour of sleep and I’ll be perfect. I woke up with a slight body ache and knew something wasn’t right. I cancelled my workout and called our family physician. Something new that I was not used to when I called were the screening questions. What was the highest fever you had? 99.8 Any problems breathing? Shortness of breath? Nope Dry cough? NADA OK come on in. When I got there, they took my vitals. Temperature was a little high but still under 100. Blood oxygen level…perfect. Swab test for flu and strep…both negative. So, what’s the deal Doc? It could be a false negative on the flu test that we perform in the office. 30% of cases are, he said. We’ll send it in for a culture test. OK. Now what? I’ll prescribe some Tamiflu just in case. Otherwise, get some rest and call me if anything changes with your breathing. OK. I go home. I do some work in my home office and I tell my wife that I should probably sleep in our game room that has 2 queen wall beds… just to be on the safe side in case I have the flu. Around 7 that evening as I am watching the news, I feel like the breaths that I can usually take cause me a little cough at the end of the inhalation. Nothing bad. As a matter of fact, I would not have thought twice about it if I had not seen the Dr. who specifically told me to let him know if that exact thing happened. Dry cough after a deep breath. My daughter called the Doctor’s office. Closed. She left a message for someone to call us back. The Dr. calls back after 30 minutes and after a brief description, he advises me to go to the ER just to be safe. He calls ahead to Presbyterian Plano and lets them know that I am coming. I show up, Morgan is asked to wait outside of the ER since they have a lot of infected people come in. They take my vitals. Everything looks OK. I ask the nurse if I can have a COVID test as she is pulling 2 large swabs out and smiles. Already ahead of you. 2 swift insertions up my nose and she was done. That wasn’t so bad. Next test…chest X-ray. Oh oh, I have pneumonia. “Mr. Alfia”, says the Dr. “We want to keep you for observation.” Why I ask? You have all the classic signs for COVID-19. What classic signs? Fever, pneumonia, shortness of breath, dry cough. “OK, but I feel fine”, I said. He insisted. Without sidetracking the story (another post perhaps) about how bad it was in that hospital waiting for them to transfer me to a proper room. After laying on a gurney for almost 10 hours, I made my escape from the hospital at 6 am. The final straw was when they gave me sour cream and onion Lays chips as a meal when I told them that I hadn’t eaten anything since 3 pm. Nonetheless, I went home on Thursday morning and went straight to bed in my new upstairs living quarters. The next 2 days were just relaxing in bed taking the occasional Tylenol to reduce fever that never got passed 101.5 and being pampered (most of the time) by my wife. I took care to stay in the room the entire time. Per the doctor’s instructions, I covered my face with a mask and put gloves in the rare event that I left the room. By Friday evening (2.5 days later) all my symptoms were gone and I felt fine and almost back to normal. However, I still had not gotten back my COVID test results. Surely I don’t have it, I thought. Here is the part that I really feel bad about. Since I showed all the signs of COVID and my family physician and 3 of his nurses were exposed to me, he had to shut his practice down. His nurses had to quarantine themselves for 14 days. Because he has a wife and kids at home and did not want to expose them, HE MOVED INTO HIS OFFICE! WHAT? Obviously, he wanted to know the test results more than I did. Anyways, the weekend was more of the same. Rest and more TV. I got the call from the hospital’s virus specialist Monday morning who confirmed my infection. I have been advised to wait at least 7 days from the first symptom and at least 3 days from the last symptom before ending the quarantine. So Wednesday morning should be it. It’s actually quite liberating. From what they know now (and it could change) I should have an immunity to COVID for at least the short term (a few months) . Will I go out and lick the handles at Post Office? Of course not! But I can now breath easier (no pun intended) knowing that it’s over for me…at least for this season. To reiterate, the reason for telling you all this information is that hopefully what I went through (or varying degrees) will be the case for a vast majority of people. This will be another flu that we will have to deal with every season. They will come up with a vaccine (just like we have the flu shot). Some people will still get it, some people won’t. Some people will die. Most won’t. They will have treatments that will shorten the time frame but I do not think COVID-19 is going away for a while. Do you realize how long it’s been since we eradicated a virus in humans? A long, long time. 1977 with smallpox to be exact. So far, the first AND ONLY viral disease we have eradicated. Amazing isn’t it? With all of our technology, we have only eradicated one virus! Ever! Look it up on Wikipedia. So…if you are reasonably healthy then stop freaking out. Of course, be cautious and do all that they recommend doing: social distance, wash hands etc. However, I think that in the next X months, 70% of us will get it. Some might not even know they got it and beat it. All of this that the government is requiring will just slow the spread. But it will not stop it. If you are UNHEALTHY then follow the above guidelines more carefully AND when all this BS is finally behind us and we get back to normal, stop smoking or vaping and get your lazy ass to the gym. Walking is not a sport. If you don’t sweat it doesn’t count. Stop making excuses for why you can’t go and put in the time at the gym or on a treadmill somewhere and get healthy. Stop eating junk food. Diet Coke is not a health food. I used to be overweight by 30 pounds. I decided about 10 years ago that I was not going to continue to wear baggy clothes to hide my body. It’s not easy but it’s not hard. It’s a transformation of what you consider important in your life. Once you start, it’s addicting. I promise.