General Corona Virus Discussion

   #21  

Uwe

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-Uwe-
 
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Jack@European_Parts

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Ain't nobody got time for that useless mask!









Better think this and ear muffs if really serious!


&

AMP up on Vitamin C, Niacin and salt!
 
   #23  

DV52

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Absolutely - for example, in the UK testing of anyone showing symptoms was stopped several days ago and only those seriously ill enough to be taken into hospital are being tested.

So the UK figures for "confirmed infections" will be substantially lower than the "actual infection" numbers - if other countries are following a similar methodology then the morbidity rate will be significantly lower than suggested by using the "confirmed infection" numbers.
Dave: I'm probably overthinking the morbidity ratio thing (I tend to do this when I know little about the subject matter - which is the case for most topics these days) but on the converse side - I'm equally convinced that there has been an over-statement in the reported death count for the virus.

I strongly suspect that the single qualification for identifying a death as being a covid-19 death is that the person has the virus. Whilst this might seem reasonable, the actual cause of death might also be the result of a separate underlying illness (particularly for the elderly).

If I'm correct, the real death count from the virus should fall and with it, the morbidity rate should fall also. So, in the pursuit of accuracy and as a salve to published numbers that can only increase panic in the population - the error direction in both the denominator and the numerator for the calculation tend to reinforce a higher morbidity rate.

Again, I'm not saying that we should ignore the risks from the virus - I'm just seeking the facts (which appear to be different to news-product as reported in the media

Don

PS: ..........and to put the whole virus thingy in perspective - i just couldn't resist this piece of prose (my apology to those from the countries identified, but us Aussies get an equal serve):

UK Virus ALERT

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent virus threat and have therefore raised their threat level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, level may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.”

The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out.

The virus has been re-categorized from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

The Scots have raised their threat level from “Pissed Off” to “Let's Get the Bastard.” They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.

Italy has increased the alert level from “Shout Loudly and Excitedly” to “Elaborate Military Posturing.” Two more levels remain: “Ineffective Combat Operations” and “Change Sides.”

The Germans have increased their alert state from “Disdainful Arrogance” to “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs.” They also have two higher levels: “Invade a Neighbour” and “Lose.”

Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.

The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

Australia, meanwhile, has raised its alert level from “No worries” to “She'll be alright, Mate.” Two more escalation levels remain: “Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!” and “The barbie is cancelled.” So far, no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level.

The Russians have said “Its not us”
 
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   #24  

PetrolDave

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Again, I'm not saying that we should ignore the risks from the virus - I'm just seeking the facts (which appear to be different to news-product as reported in the media.
I couldn't agree with you more Don. We need to take Covid-19 seriously, BUT we also need to keep in perspective how it compares to other viruses such as H1N1 flu, SARS, etc.

The news media seem to be almost enjoying hyping up the effect on societies of Covid-19, all the UK broadcast channels are extending their news bulletins AND replacing other scheduled programmes with "analysis" (i.e we've told you something 3 times during the news so we'll tell you them 3 times again AND add in some unsubstantiated comment to make you REALLY nervous/scared).

I'm firmly of the opinion that much of the panic buying in many countries has as one of it's root causes the sensationalist nature of the reporting by the news media and the lack of control over social media posts.
 
   #25  

DV52

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I'm firmly of the opinion that much of the panic buying in many countries has as one of it's root causes the sensationalist nature of the reporting by the news media and the lack of control over social media posts.
Dave: Exactly my point too!! What each country needs in a pandemic is a draconian leadership style and a compliant populous! Alas, this is completely antithetical to western democracies - if this change in dynamic is at all achievable, then it will take courage (both by Governments and in the community). Given your observations about crowds still congregating in public - I wonder what it will take for democracies to bend-to-Government-rule?

AND there needs to be a fundamental shift in the way that internal politics in Government is conducted. Democracies normally have a 2 x party base which are in constant opposition with each other as they both compete for the coveted trophy of Government. It all works well (I guess) in normal times - except that it doesn't work well in a pandemic. I'm not sure if UK has an enlightened opposition party, but in the form of Government that we inherited from UK - our opposition is still acting as an opposition party. This is not helpful because it has the effect of diminishing the message from Government.

We are on a war footing - we need to change the way that our political system operates!! Again - I repeat my sacrilegious hypothesis (this time with a tautology ;)) - perhaps I've identified the only advantage of having a Despot as ruler (not that I'm suggesting Boris is a despot)?

Don
 
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   #26  

PetrolDave

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I'm not sure if UK has an enlightened opposition party, but in the form of Government that we inherited from UK - our opposition is still acting as an opposition party. This is not helpful because it has the effect of diminishing the message from Government.
Don - the UK official Opposition started out taking the same approach as the Government but once the "going got tough" they have slipped back into the old yah boo sucks style of an opposition party which, as you so rightly say, is not the correct approach in this "war" footing that we all find ourselves in.

IMHO the political class need to adopt a GNU (Government of National Unity) style until we beat (i.e. find a suitable vaccine for) Covid-19.
 
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Uwe

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Dave: Exactly my point too!! What each country needs in a pandemic is a draconian leadership style and a compliant populous! Alas, this is completely antithetical to western democracies - if this change in dynamic is at all achievable, then it will take courage (both by Governments and in the community). Given your observations about crowds still congregating in public - I wonder what it will take for democracies to bend-to-Government-rule?
You know, if Wuhanic Plague had a case fatality rate of 50%, a "draconian leadership style" might be warranted. But it clearly doesn't, and I'm starting to wonder if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease.

-Uwe-
 
   #29  

PetrolDave

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I'm starting to wonder if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease.
Me too - when you consider that the real mortality rate is probably less than 2% (in the UK the current figures are wrong since testing is only done on those admitted to hospital which means 80% of those suffering are not included) it's really not a lot worse than unusual flu epidemics like H1N1 or SARS.

It seems our culture has a desire to attempt self destruction because of over-hyped "problems" such as Covid-19 and "climate change" - but that's not a commonly held view.
 
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Jack@European_Parts

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   #32  

Uwe

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Me too - when you consider that the real mortality rate is probably less than 2% (in the UK the current figures are wrong since testing is only done on those admitted to hospital which means 80% of those suffering are not included) it's really not a lot worse than unusual flu epidemics like H1N1 or SARS.
Yep, I think the reality is it will be much less than 2%.

From the giant Petri Dish known as the Diamond Princess, where everyone got tested, and the age distribution of the passengers skewed considerably higher that it does even in Italy, we know that roughly 30% of people who tested positive never had any symptoms at all. So even in places where they test everyone with symptoms, not just hospital admissions, the number of infections are under-reported.

What we really need right now is an antibody test like this in wide distribution to find out how many people have already had it and thus are likely already immune. This would also tell us where we are along the supposedly exponential growth curve; i.e. how many doublings are left before this thing peters out due to herd immunity. I suspect we're further along than the "authorities" think.

-Uwe-
 
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Jack@European_Parts

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   #34  

DV52

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You know, if Wuhanic Plague had a case fatality rate of 50%, a "draconian leadership style" might be warranted. But it clearly doesn't, and I'm starting to wonder if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease.

-Uwe-
Uwe: Clearly your question would be answered differently depending on who is asked.

With the greatest of respect -I suspect the answer would be a resounding "yes" by the families of the 16,000-17,000 who haven't survived the pandemic. But for members of the great unwashed proletariat like me (forgive my use of a Marxist term in a reply about the "free world") - your question does raise a fundamental moral dilemma: the relative importance of the health of a country's economy versus the health of the members in that economy (which are clearly related matters albeit as is evident in the pandemic and unlike "normal" times- these are no longer strictly symbiotic matters)

My own personal view is that the "Wuhanic Plague" (I haven't heard the term before - it's very "Trump-esk") correctly forces Governments to rethink their country's priorities: stuff has changed in the pandemic and both imperatives above are important of course - but the one thing that hasn't changed is Government's reliance on the individual self interest of voters. I suspect that Governments see the fear and panic in the community (read "voters") and even with the relatively low morbidity rate, they prioritize personal health over the health of the economy - at least in the short term.

Down here in the not-so-free part of the world, our Government had a myopic focus before the virus on achieving a budget surplus. A month ago that obsession started to falter and Australia started talking about a "budget deficit" - which then quickly changed to a "budget recession" and just a few days ago we started to hear the term "economic depression"! A slippery slope that I suspect is now inevitable with the only question remaining being: how long?

I spent the last 18 years of my working life trading energy on a very volatile spot market where "risk-management" and "consequential analysis" were the tools of trade. I suspect that the task of government in finding the balance point for survival strategies for individuals in our societies versus the country's economy is very much a compromise using the same tools (but infinitely more complex).

Personally, I would want my Government to err on the side of personal health, rather than on economic health - but then, I'm not as exposed to the economy as are others!!

Perhaps in the new world post covid-19, the real winners will be asectics and introverts - I'm already one, but need to work on the other ;)?

Don
 
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   #35  

DV52

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............ how many doublings are left before this thing peters out due to herd immunity.
-Uwe-
Uwe: I hope your hypothesis about "herd immunity" is correct - certainly the first version of SARS (SW version 1) that appeared around 2002 and which had an almost two-fold increase in mortality rate (9.6%) has only reappeared in small numbers since. But, Covid-19 is a next generation virus which is far more virulent and it has a much wider spread now world wide, so I wouldn't be surprised if it will be part of our way-of-life in all communities, forever more.

It may well be that Covid-19 will become inactive through "herd immunity", as you suggest- but let's not underestimate the cunning tactics of other viral infections to mutate and re-infect. The other salutary aspect of the 2002 version of SARS is that after 18 years, there is no vaccine!! I hope that this is due to a lack of demand (certainly not the same situation as Covid-19)

And yes - to quote your POTUS, the first SARS was also a "Chinese" infection!

Don
 
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   #36  

HMC

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"if the "cure" (i.e. the forced shut down of the free world's economy, which doesn't really cure anything at all) isn't worse than the disease."
23 Italian doctors have sadly died after catching the virus while helping others.
With apologies to Rudyard Kipling:
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,

Perhaps you have misjudged the situation
Regards HMC
 
   #38  

Jetta 97

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I am not comment abort this to much ,I want to share experience of my Ex boos ,very nice guy and most honest person that I know,
I know not every cases are like this ,there is much more worst then this , but we need to also see positive side of story, not just Black side , fear and panic :
Code:
My Coronavirus Experience

I finally received my Coronavirus diagnosis this Monday morning. It came back positive. 
I was hesitant at first about writing this by my intent in publicizing this information is to help people 
understand what cases like mine are like so I can hopefully reduce the fear that has enveloped 
the entire globe in a matter of weeks. We all hear so much bad news lately that hopefully 
cases like mine turn out to be the rule and not the exception.

In no way am I minimizing the potential health threat that this virus poses to society,
 nor am I insinuating that there are not others with a similar health profile 
that are not far more affected by the virus than I was. I am simply telling my brief journey with the virus and what it was like.

I am about to turn 50 this summer. I take care of myself. I eat well. Easy on the red meat and bread,
 fish/sushi whenever possible and as many home cooked meals as my kick-ass chef (My wife Morgan) will make.
 I exercise often…trainer 3 times a week, HIIT class at Neon Cycle and Strength (plug for my wife’s business) 
on Saturday mornings and racquetball on Sundays. Anyone that knows me knows that I hate sleep (4-5 hours at most).
 I love to go out with our circle of friends and I love vodka and limes (perhaps a little too much…of both).

I rarely get sick or hungover and when I do, I will hardly admit it and just power through the day. 
However, I am very much in touch with my body and know when something is a little off. 
This past Tuesday night was one of those times that I felt a little off,
 maybe the onset of a soar throat or flu. Nothing to worry about, I thought. 
I just need to get an extra hour of sleep and I’ll be perfect.
 I woke up with a slight body ache and knew something wasn’t right.
 I cancelled my workout and called our family physician. 
Something new that I was not used to when I called were the screening questions.
What was the highest fever you had? 99.8
Any problems breathing? Shortness of breath? Nope
Dry cough? NADA
OK come on in.

When I got there, they took my vitals. 
Temperature was a little high but still under 100. 
Blood oxygen level…perfect. Swab test for flu and strep…both negative.
 So, what’s the deal Doc? It could be a false negative on the flu test that we perform in the office. 
30% of cases are, he said. We’ll send it in for a culture test. OK. Now what?
 I’ll prescribe some Tamiflu just in case. Otherwise, get some rest and call me if anything changes with your breathing. OK.

I go home. I do some work in my home office and I tell my wife that 
I should probably sleep in our game room that has 2 queen wall beds…
just to be on the safe side in case I have the flu. 
Around 7 that evening as I am watching the news, 
I feel like the breaths that I can usually take cause me a little cough at the end of the inhalation.
 Nothing bad. As a matter of fact, I would not have thought twice about it if I had not seen 
the Dr. who specifically told me to let him know if that exact thing happened. 
Dry cough after a deep breath. My daughter called the Doctor’s office. Closed. 
She left a message for someone to call us back.
 The Dr. calls back after 30 minutes and after a brief description,
 he advises me to go to the ER just to be safe. 
He calls ahead to Presbyterian Plano and lets them know that I am coming. 
I show up, Morgan is asked to wait outside of the ER since they have a lot of infected people come in.

They take my vitals. Everything looks OK. 
I ask the nurse if I can have a COVID test as she is pulling 2 large swabs out and smiles. 
Already ahead of you. 2 swift insertions up my nose and she was done. That wasn’t so bad.

Next test…chest X-ray. Oh oh, I have pneumonia. “Mr. Alfia”, says the Dr. “We want to keep you for observation.” Why I ask? 
You have all the classic signs for COVID-19. What classic signs? Fever, pneumonia,
 shortness of breath, dry cough. “OK, but I feel fine”, I said. He insisted.

Without sidetracking the story (another post perhaps) about how bad it was in that hospital waiting for them to transfer me to a proper room.
 After laying on a gurney for almost 10 hours, I made my escape from the hospital at 6 am. 
The final straw was when they gave me sour cream and onion Lays chips as a meal when I told them that I hadn’t eaten anything since 3 pm.

Nonetheless, I went home on Thursday morning and went straight to bed in my new upstairs living quarters. 
The next 2 days were just relaxing in bed taking the occasional Tylenol to reduce fever that never got passed 101.5
 and being pampered (most of the time) by my wife. I took care to stay in the room the entire time.
 Per the doctor’s instructions, I covered my face with a mask and put gloves in the rare event that I left the room.

By Friday evening (2.5 days later) all my symptoms were gone and I felt fine and almost back to normal. However, 
I still had not gotten back my COVID test results. Surely I don’t have it, I thought.

Here is the part that I really feel bad about. 
Since I showed all the signs of COVID and my family physician and 3 of his nurses were exposed to me, 
he had to shut his practice down. His nurses had to quarantine themselves for 14 days.
 Because he has a wife and kids at home and did not want to expose them,
 HE MOVED INTO HIS OFFICE! WHAT? Obviously, he wanted to know the test results more than I did.

Anyways, the weekend was more of the same. Rest and more TV. 
I got the call from the hospital’s virus specialist Monday morning who confirmed my infection.

I have been advised to wait at least 7 days from the first symptom 
and at least 3 days from the last symptom before ending the quarantine. 
So Wednesday morning should be it. It’s actually quite liberating.
 From what they know now (and it could change) I should have an immunity to COVID for at least the short term (a few months) .
 Will I go out and lick the handles at Post Office? Of course not! 
But I can now breath easier (no pun intended) knowing that it’s over for me…at least for this season.

To reiterate, the reason for telling you all this information is that hopefully 
what I went through (or varying degrees) will be the case for a vast majority of people.
 This will be another flu that we will have to deal with every season.
 They will come up with a vaccine (just like we have the flu shot). 
Some people will still get it, some people won’t. Some people will die.
 Most won’t. They will have treatments that will shorten the time frame but I do not think COVID-19 is going away for a while.

Do you realize how long it’s been since we eradicated a virus in humans? 
A long, long time. 1977 with smallpox to be exact.
 So far, the first AND ONLY viral disease we have eradicated. 
Amazing isn’t it? With all of our technology, we have only eradicated one virus! Ever! Look it up on Wikipedia.

So…if you are reasonably healthy then stop freaking out. Of course,
 be cautious and do all that they recommend doing: 
social distance, wash hands etc. However, I think that in the next X months, 
70% of us will get it. Some might not even know they got it and beat it. 
All of this that the government is requiring will just slow the spread. But it will not stop it.

If you are UNHEALTHY then follow the above guidelines more carefully 
AND when all this BS is finally behind us and we get back to normal,
 stop smoking or vaping and get your lazy ass to the gym. Walking is not a sport.
 If you don’t sweat it doesn’t count. 
Stop making excuses for why you can’t go and put in the time at the gym or on a treadmill somewhere and get healthy.
 Stop eating junk food. Diet Coke is not a health food.
 I used to be overweight by 30 pounds. I decided about 10 years ago that
 I was not going to continue to wear baggy clothes to hide my body.
 It’s not easy but it’s not hard. It’s a transformation of what you consider important in your life. Once you start, it’s addicting. 
I promise.
 
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