General Corona Virus Discussion

[DV52]

Personally, my sense is that we'd accomplish more with good hand hygiene than masks, but of course it's far more difficult tell when or how thoroughly a person last washed their hands than it is to see if they're wearing a mask, which makes hand hygiene rather difficult to enforce.

-Uwe-

Uwe, et al:

Victoria (which is a State of Australia) has had mandatory face-mask regulations (anytime outside the home) since the commencement of our 2nd wave and there are heavy financial/legal penalties for infringements. I now see lots of variations in face mask types in the community; surgical, non-surgical, home made, face visors, bandanas, industrial/medical respirators - and many more!

I'm not sure how effective face-masks are at actually stopping the virus but the regulations were introduced together with a raft of more draconian restrictions to combat rising infection numbers in our Melbourne community (which in the Capital city of Victoria). Our 2nd wave started because of bungled quarantine practices by private security staff working at our COVID isolation hotels.

The points made above about the medical disadvantages and the constant face-mask fiddling are quite valid, as is the issue of bacteria build-up inside the mask. I personally wear N95 masks and I religiously bathe my mask after each use with UV light from a small portable battery-operated UV sanitizer (charged via the USB port in my car). Seems to work OK - we most definitely can't get "30-cent "surgical" style" masks" down here. The other issue regarding the medical effectiveness of masks is the integrity of the seal against the face - I've seen some shocking examples (particularly with the growing practice to cross the ear chords on the mask) and for bearded men (like me), getting a good seal is a real problem

Anyhow - I'm not sure if I'm reading too much into the community effect of mandatory face mask wearing down here - but for me, the bigger impact seems to be the very strong and clear subliminal message that the regulation sends in a State/country that doesn't generally wear these coverings; the constant sight of every-one with a mask seem to unite the community and their wearing appears to reinforce the message that we are all in this battle together.

Yes, we still get the occasional protesters on the evening news - but generally, the common compliance seems to shout loudly that folk are OK to subdue their personal freedoms for the good of the community (freedoms are ultimately a net-sum-game, in reality). And, by "freedoms", I'm not just referring to those related specifically to face masks!

So - I agree that medical considerations are entirely appropriate when looking at face masks for their intended application - remembering that PPE protection gear, which includes face masks is designed for a specific purpose in hospitals and medical places. However, perhaps it's prudent to look at the advantages/disadvantages of face masks in a far wider context when considering their use for infection control in a community.

Fact is that in a community context, mandatory face-mask wearing does serve many more purposes - IMHO, of course!!

Don

 

[Uwe]

Our 2nd wave started because of bungled quarantine practices by private security staff working at our COVID isolation hotels.

Given what I've read about the circumstances, "Bungled" is an interesting way of putting that.

Your country is a very large island/continent with no land borders. This allows you very tight control over anyone coming in. Most of the other countries in the world do not have that luxury; the US certainly doesn't. But be that as it may, how long do you think you can isolate yourselves from the rest of the world? Nobody is going to visit Australia, either for business or pleasure, if they have to spend weeks in quarantine upon arrival. Moreover with viruses, even complete isolation doesn't guarantee you won't have outbreaks. A while back, I came across this paper from the early 1970s documenting an outbreak of the common cold at a base Antarctica that occurred after 17 weeks of complete isolation. Viruses are tricky things!

The other issue regarding the medical effectiveness of masks is the integrity of the seal against the face - I've seen some shocking examples (particularly with the growing practice to cross the ear chords on the mask) and for bearded men (like me), getting a good seal is a real problem

Yes, that is very much an issue with facial hair in the area where the mask should seal, and not having a good seal makes using an N95 mask no more effective than the lesser alternatives. How would you feel of a clean-shaven face was made mandatory in order to leave your home?

Anyhow - I'm not sure if I'm reading too much into the community effect of mandatory face mask wearing down here - but for me, the bigger impact seems to be the very strong and clear subliminal message that the regulation sends in a State/country that doesn't generally wear these coverings; the constant sight of every-one with a mask seem to unite the community and their wearing appears to reinforce the message that we are all in this battle together.

Sounds like you're willing to consider the possibility that mask mandates are implemented at least in part for the purpose of psychological manipulation?

I don't know about you, but I don't appreciate attempts at manipulation.

-Uwe-

 

[DV52]

Given what I've read about the circumstances, "Bungled" is an interesting way of putting that.

yes, a gross understatement perhaps and certainly not a good example of how to conduct infection control. Our Premier (same as your Governor) has instigated a judicial inquiry into Victoria’s hotel quarantine program - probably will recommend smacks for someone (likely to the those with the least political connections)

Your country is a very large island/continent with no land borders. This allows you very tight control over anyone coming in. Most of the other countries in the world do not have that luxury; the US certainly doesn't.

yes, again - we are an island and lots of other countries are landlocked, albeit US has elements of both. Our seas can be seen as an advantage in infection control, but Australia is the planet's sixth largest country with a disproportionately small population. Keeping watch over our shores is not possible in any meaningful way in infection control - ultimately it's swings and roundabouts IMO.

But be that as it may, how long do you think you can isolate yourselves from the rest of the world? Nobody is going to visit Australia, either for business or pleasure, if they have to spend weeks in quarantine upon arrival. Moreover with viruses, even complete isolation doesn't guarantee you won't have outbreaks......... Viruses are tricky things!

Very tricky question but no one down here believes that isolation is a good solution. Certainly, no one down here wants to remain isolated for a minute longer than necessary, The decision to impose mandatory face mask wearing was taken in an environment of growing infection numbers. The recent decision to lock-down the State was taken after still stubbornly high numbers and with the emergence of high death counts among the elderly in our nursing homes (infection via healthcare workers)
Australians are just the same as citizens up there; we social, sociable creatures - isolation causes economic hardship, emotional problems, and other mental illnesses.
So isolation is not good - except for the specific advantage of infection control. It's an interesting question as to how much is an acceptable price to pay to have a country's economy flourish. I guess it's a different answer depending on whose grandfather is at risk and whose business is about to fail!!

Yes, that is very much an issue with facial hair in the area where the mask should seal, and not having a good seal makes using an N95 mask no more effective than the lesser alternatives. How would you feel of a clean-shaven face was made mandatory in order to leave your home?

hmm......... the last time that I had a clean shaven face you were probably in nappies!! But if such a proposal was made, I would defend my facial hair with the legionary zeal of a Republican voter!!!

Sounds like you're willing to consider the possibility that mask mandates are implemented at least in part for the purpose of psychological manipulation?
I don't know about you, but I don't appreciate attempts at manipulation.

You have misunderstood my point - I start from the position the face masks probably has a single design purpose as a medical device in a hospital, or a medical institution. However, it's folly to believe that this application remains unchanged when transferred to a community environment for infection control. There must be other impacts because the environment is far more complex and yes some of the extra effects are indeed physiological (they must be so because we are dealing with many people).

Now, are the physiological impacts a form of manipulation? Definitely not. I'm not saying that the decision for mandatory mask wearing was a manipulation engendered by Government to psychologically control citizens. Such thoughts are downright dystopian!! Of course the primary purpose was infection control (with all of the problems identified in this thread) - but this doesn't mean that we should believe that these masks have an impact that is the same as if worn in an operating room by a bunch of medicos!!

Don

 

[jyoung8607]

This is a good website:

https://c19study.com/

From all the signs shown, HCQ appears to be effective if used when symptoms first appear, but it is not useful to those who are already in high water with the disease.

Well, I like that you're at least looking at data. Let's start with the headliner they take from https://hcqtrial.com/. Pardon the stream-of-thought here, I'm correcting/adding to it as I read.

* Interesting choice of countries on the left and right sides of the list there, substantially different infrastructure, citizen travel/mobility habits, and major outbreak timelines.
* Where's Italy on this list, who was in especially deep shit early on?
** Checked later on the page, they just decide to handwave away the countries that stopped using it due to the side effects and questionable efficacy
* Why is deaths-per-million of the general population (an indirect measure of pandemic spread) being used as a measure for the curative power of a medication for an individually diagnosable disease? We're just not looking at cases-to-deaths ratio at all? Why the hell?
* Cuba's numbers are impressive...
** ... probably helps they have totally shut down all international travel for several months, which hasn't a fucking thing to do with HCQ
** ... and then, according to the numbers, have kept the outbreak extremely small and driven new deaths to substantially zero, good on them if true
* And they took Cuba's miniscule deaths-per-million rate, **averaged the rate** with the other HCQ-using countries they picked, and used that for their headline result

They indirectly measured the per-capita size of outbreaks in a given country and tried to associate it with HCQ efficacy. But the averaging method, and Cuba in particular, is where it stopped being weird and started being malice. That shit wasn't an accident. And it's not necessarily all that's wrong, it's just where I stopped looking.

I don't know all the answers to everything. That's what I found in 30 minutes, knowing very little about statistics. They thing is, it's okay for me to not know the answers, provided that I don't go around telling people I know better than those egghead nerd epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists who dedicated their lives to the study of such things.

 

[Uwe]

They thing is, it's okay for me to not know the answers, provided that I don't go around telling people I know better than those egghead nerd epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists who dedicated their lives to the study of such things.

The problem with paying too much attention to those guys is two-fold:

1) They consistently over-estimate the effects (and especially deaths) of whatever epidemic is going around.

2) They make recommendations on how to control the epidemic without any regard to societal and economic consequences of their proposals.

-Uwe-

 

[jyoung8607]

1) They consistently over-estimate the effects (and especially deaths) of whatever epidemic is going around.

Subject matter expert: Do [this] or [bad things will happen]!

People in charge: Oh shit we'll do [this] right away! (does this)

[time passes, things are done, bad things are clearly reduced or eliminated]

Fox News: So-called "expert" from the Obama administration said [bad things were going to happen], but did they really? Fair and balanced facts say no. Many people are asking, why did we spend all that time and money doing [this]? Some say they hate America and our freedoms. Here's an apple pie with an American flag in the background, for the troops. We report, you decide!

Fox News viewers: Idiot libtards at it again! Good thing we are too smart for them and the country belongs exclusively to us.

2) They make recommendations on how to control the epidemic without any regard to societal and economic consequences of their proposals.

"Without any regard" is patently and obviously false; they're human beings and want their country and their world to come out intact on the other side of this. That said, certainly their medical advice is one of many inputs for elected officials and other leaders who have to balance a series of difficult, thankless, and heart-wrenching decisions.

It's important for that medical advice to adjust and adapt as more facts are gathered and models are updated. It's important that it be as free from bullshit as possible. It's important to listen to that advice and incorporate it into the overall strategy.

It's very possible for an infectious disease subject matter expert to have a poor grasp of macroeconomics or sociology. I'm not coming to them for macroeconomics or sociology advice, and it doesn't invalidate their medical advice. In much the same way, I'll take your advice without question on automotive diagnostics and many other topics, even though I spar with you quite frequently on politics.

 

[Jack@European_Parts]

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...sts-could-be-the-answer-to-reopening-the-u-s/


Instant Coffee’ COVID-19 Tests Could Be the Answer to Reopening the U.S.

 

[Uwe]

Instant Coffee’ COVID-19 Tests Could Be the Answer to Reopening the U.S.

I'm not much of a fan of instant coffee, but yeah:

BTW, that's a really good YT channel that at least to me, appears to to be free of any political bias.

-Uwe-

 

[BB tt]

Maybe im just to slow to understand... last week the Gov of Texas announced the surge in cases that caused the second round of shutdowns in Texas and then prevented schools from opening was due to a data processing error. But then said we have to wait for the numbers to come down to reopen. so 2 points i'm sure it was just and innocent and coincidental accident that there was a "data processing error" the resulted in closing down everything right as the state republican convention was about to happen and the president was considering moving the national convention to Dallas. Second point if you know the surge was based on falsified data, oops i mean an innocent data processing error, why do we have to wait for numbers that according to you are false to come down to reopen?

funny thing they allowed cars and coffee to happen saturday because it was a charitable event. Thousands of people there i saw maybe a dozen people with masks on and 3 of those were cops on duty.

my favorite car at the event

 

[Jack@European_Parts]

[h=1]The COVID police are coming to shoot you in the back?



University of Alabama reports more than 500 new coronavirus cases since opening[/h]
https://www.aol.com/article/news/20...new-coronavirus-cases-since-opening/24599358/

 

[Jack@European_Parts]

Are the words "overstated" fraud or negligence to be relied on by someone in an official capacity?

FDA chief apologizes for overstating plasma effect on virus


https://www.aol.com/article/news/20...-overstating-plasma-effect-on-virus/24599537/

 

[Jack@European_Parts]

[h=1]

Revved by Sturgis Rally, COVID-19 infections move fast, far[/h]https://www.aol.com/article/news/20...y-covid-19-infections-move-fast-far/24599597/

 

[Uwe]

University of Alabama reports more than 500 new coronavirus cases since opening
https://www.aol.com/article/news/20...new-coronavirus-cases-since-opening/24599358/

OK -- the University of Alabama has a student body of over 30,000. So 1 in 60 have tested positive. This is a meaningless number, unless you like fear porn.

More useful info would be: How many of them have any symptoms at all? How many are sick enough to require treatment? But they won't tell us that, will they?

-Uwe-

 

[Uwe]

Revved by Sturgis Rally, COVID-19 infections move fast, farhttps://www.aol.com/article/news/20...y-covid-19-infections-move-fast-far/24599597/

Really? How many cases have been traced to a rally attended by "hundreds of thousands"?

-Uwe-

 

[Jack@European_Parts]

I'm sure we will be told what someone's speculation will be eventually, no?

What are the right answers, what are the right questions?

Deep State is coming to get everyone like the Boogyman?

 

[Mike R]

Texas has not had a spike. They peaked at 10255 cases (on a 7 day running average) On July 15th. They are just under half that now.

 

[Jack@European_Parts]

Texas has not had a spike. They peaked at 10255 cases (on a 7 day running average) On July 15th. They are just under half that now

I wonder why......?


https://www.aol.com/article/lifestyle/2020/08/26/cdc-quietly-changes-testing-guidelines-to-exclude-people-with-no-symptoms/24600565/


[h=1]CDC quietly changes testing guidelines to exclude people with no symptoms[/h]

 

[Uwe]

CDC quietly changes testing guidelines to exclude people with no symptoms

Good. It's absurd to count "cases" of a "disease" if among those who aren't actually sick.

-Uwe-

 

[Mike R]

Good. It's absurd to count "cases" of a "disease" if among those who aren't actually sick.

-Uwe-

I don't see what's so hard about having an open and honest carrier/asymptomatic category. Listing them as their own case.

 

[Uwe]

I don't see what's so hard about having an open and honest carrier/asymptomatic category. Listing them as their own case.

Here's the catch: The PCR tests that are used to count cases only look for RNA fragments, not live viruses that can infect someone. You can be totally immune (e.g. due to having had the thing several months ago, or due to T-Cell cross-immunity from some other corona virus), be exposed do this virus, have some of it end up in your nose, and test positive, despite the fact that you're not infectious. Or you can test positive many, many weeks after you've had it because your body is still shedding (non-infectious) RNA fragments out of dead cells.

-Uwe-