General Corona Virus Discussion

   #241  

PetrolDave

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   #242  

Uwe

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There's also a strong regional difference, with increases only a couple of regions - cynics might suggest a correlation with the recent BLM protests where social distancing has been noticeable by it's absence.
The regions in which there's currently an increase are regions which previously did not have very many cases. This makes sense, since they still have a high proportion of people who've never been exposed. In places like NYC where the virus was endemic a couple of months ago, most people who are going to come down with it already have, so cases there are declining.

Thus far, there's been little correlation with the BLM protests, but it might be too early to know this for sure, and of course, most of the protesters were relatively young and thus aren't very likely to come down with symptoms that are severe enough to attract much notice. And then there's also the fact that contact tracers in NYC were explicitly told not not ask whether a person had been to such a protest.

-Uwe-
 
   #243  

DneprDave

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Why are people protesting the Bureau of Land Management?:confused:


I know it means Black Lives Matter, but that isn't the first thing that comes to my mind when I see BLM.
 
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   #245  

Andy

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pudBwdm.jpg


Montgomery County PA (where RT is located and where I live) has now been moved from the "Red Phase" to the "Yellow Phase":

https://www.governor.pa.gov/process-to-reopen-pennsylvania/

I have a reservation for dining tonight with the family, at an actual restaurant! Outdoor, with social distancing yadda yadda but still. A faint glimmer of normalcy has returned.

Updated info from my county:

NcJcZP3.jpg


The trend of cases going down continues and the county is supposed to move from the yellow to the green phase this Friday June 26th.

This should mean pretty much all businesses can be open but with a bunch of capacity limitations and other rules. From my limited interactions with humans outside of my family, it appears that most people either keep a distance from one another when talking and/or use a face covering.
 
   #247  

jyoung8607

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Note how he puts that sentence together to to make it sound like most people are still at risk of dying from this thing. I can't view this as anything but deliberately misleading.
Can you give some plausible motive for such a thing? Like, do you think the WHO and CDC are staffed by people who get off on watching the world burn while keeping the "Vitamin D and bootstraps" cure under lock-and-key because... why? All the money and power they don't have and won't get either way?

What's it going to take for the world to take a realistic view of this
Adult leadership coupled with Rupert Murdoch getting a visit from the Ghosts of Christmas Past, Present, and Future.

In other words, we're in deep trouble.

and if we really want to minimize deaths, what we need to do is get seriously OCD about protecting the people who are actually at risk if they catch it?
Pray tell, how exactly does one go about that?

(hint)
 
   #248  

Jack@European_Parts

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Is the right answer Science and Mathematics = SHIT-STORM! or when you ignore the actual statistics?
Too the tenth power possibly?:rolleyes:
Hey the map is mostly RED now huh, is that fake news too?

No one to social distance from?
First steak night in 4 months and went to a very creepy Outback Steak House last night.

Figured might as well enjoy dinner & practically alone, it was like only me and the Matco tool man!

As soon as it gets busy, I'm staying home!

Schools I think will be closed come second wave and heat is not stopping this thing.

Look at South America it is getting hammered!
 
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   #249  

Uwe

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Can you give some plausible motive for such a thing?
I am not a psychiatrist or psychologist, so I try to avoid speculating about the motives people have for their actions. ;)

The reality is that most people's risk of dying from this virus if they become infected is minuscule; on par with the risk of dying by taking a road trip in a car. Of course, this is not true of everyone, but now have the data to know who is at substantially greater risk; in fact, we've had that data for quite some time.

So I'll stick with what I've been saying for quite some time: We need to focus on protecting those who are actually vulnerable and let the rest of the country get on with living their lives.

-Uwe-
 
   #251  

Uwe

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Here's a highly respected hospital group in western Pennsylvania; there are people who are actually "in the trenches", treating patients, rather than epidemiologists running models with incorrect premises, or bureaucrats who haven't treated patients in decades (if ever):

UPMC Urges ‘Changing Mindset’ to Focus on Severity of Illness, not Frequency of COVID-19 Infections
“We need to change our mindset and focus on severity of illness, rather than just counting the number of new infections. For the vast majority of the people testing positive, their illness is mild or they don’t even have symptoms,” said Dr. Donald Yealy, UPMC’s senior medical director and chair of emergency medicine. “This is why we watch the hospitalization rate and the need for intensive care, and those numbers are down. This indicates that the people in our communities who are most vulnerable to the disease aren’t getting it – and those who are tend to be the least affected.”

Oh, and the increased case counts? Could they have anything to do with the fact that hospitals in much of the country are accepting patients for non-emergency procedures again, and they're testing every single person admitted, thereby catching a whole lot of folks who are "infected" but asymptomatic, who would never have gone and gotten a test otherwise?

I completely understand why hospitals would test everyone admitted for any reason, but just because a person tests positive does not make that person a clinical "case".

-Uwe-
 
   #252  

Jack@European_Parts

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Did you know Glenlivet 18 year kills Corn Bread virus or AKA COVID-19 on most surfaces?



the-glenlivet-xxv-single-malt-scotch-whisky-1.jpg


Does the 25 year cure it? :p

The bars are closed is why I ask!
 
   #253  

PetrolDave

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I am not a psychiatrist or psychologist, so I try to avoid speculating about the motives people have for their actions. ;)

The reality is that most people's risk of dying from this virus if they become infected is minuscule; on par with the risk of dying by taking a road trip in a car. Of course, this is not true of everyone, but now have the data to know who is at substantially greater risk; in fact, we've had that data for quite some time.

So I'll stick with what I've been saying for quite some time: We need to focus on protecting those who are actually vulnerable and let the rest of the country get on with living their lives.
I agree, in the UK the death rate in hospital of people testing positive was around 6% in April but is now down to 1.5% due to better treatment regimes. So the risk of dying due to a Covid-19 infection is now 1/4 of what it was only 3 months ago.
 
   #254  

Jack@European_Parts

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Yeah getting COVID........ you may indeed survive, however, with what ailments, it seems the cost of care afterward is not so pretty in the USA either?

More reasons for healthcare like you have Dave.......

I still think Universal health for USA would be the right thing to do and than have a secondary special industry to compete, I see no reason to enrich the insurance industry.
 
   #256  

jyoung8607

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I am not a psychiatrist or psychologist, so I try to avoid speculating about the motives people have for their actions. ;)
Why not? You're not an epidemiologist, but you feel free to play one on the Internet. You can say the WHO is misleading but you draw the line at why?

The reality is that most people's risk of dying from this virus if they become infected is minuscule; on par with the risk of dying by taking a road trip in a car. Of course, this is not true of everyone, but now have the data to know who is at substantially greater risk; in fact, we've had that data for quite some time.
First, absolutely not, and not even close for total annual driving much less a single road trip.

Second, think of your risk of being hospitalized or dying from exposure to COVID-19 more like me standing two houses down from your residence and mag-dumping a decent sized handgun randomly distributed across the visible surface area of your house. Technically the risk of intersecting your body with a projectile isn't that high, and lower still of killing you, but incredibly avoidable on my part with the most basic of self control and awareness, and something for which you'd rightly have some extremely strong and direct feelings (and actions) in response. Do you feel like I should be accountable for risks I knowingly expose you to?

So I'll stick with what I've been saying for quite some time: We need to focus on protecting those who are actually vulnerable and let the rest of the country get on with living their lives.
And I'll stick with the same reply: pray tell, how exactly does one go about that?

Tell me how my grandparents should protect themselves. They don't leave the house, they really can't alone anymore. They have a person who comes by a couple times a week to help them with cooking and cleaning and otherwise keeps them out of a nursing home. Hardworking upstanding person of good character who does her best to be careful, but who does she interact with? Maybe only her family. Her Mom watches her kid and their cousin's kid so she can work and provide for her family, because the daycare is closed. Maybe the cousin's kid had a little case of the sniffles, no big deal, all little kids have snotty noses, but it was a couple weeks after Uncle Bob came by to visit because he'd been missing everyone terribly. And Uncle Bob loooves his MAGA hat and COVID-19 is a liberal conspiracy about dragging down Trump. It's harmless to him and everyone he cares about, everyone at the packed mask-less rally agreed. Anyway, she's feeling a little flushed today, but she's sure it's nothing. And diapers don't buy themselves, it's Tuesday and the elder Youngs are out of groceries. Now what?
 
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   #257  

Uwe

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You're not an epidemiologist, but you feel free to play one on the Internet.
No I don't. I just observe what's going on in the real world and adjust my thinking accordingly, which is something that epidemiologists seem to be too stubborn to do.

First, absolutely not, and not even close for total annual driving much less a single road trip.
How does the total number of cases (or deaths) speak to my statement that "most people's risk of dying from this virus if they become infected is minuscule"?

Without demographic data regarding those who've actually died, it does not. If you look at the demographic data, you'll find that almost everyone whose death has been attributed to this virus was A) quite old and B) had at least one, and usually more than one underlying condition ("comorbidity"). Deaths among younger healthy people are indeed exceedingly rare.

And I'll stick with the same reply: pray tell, how exactly does one go about that?

Tell me how my grandparents should protect themselves. They don't leave the house, they really can't alone anymore. They have a person who comes by a couple times a week to help them with cooking and cleaning and otherwise keeps them out of a nursing home. Hardworking upstanding person of good character who does her best to be careful, but who does she interact with? [...]
So you want to prevent everyone in the entire land from living a normal life in attempt to protect your (presumably rather elderly) grandparents?

Going about one's life in a normal way is not the same as doing a mag-dump into the side of someones house!

My wife has elderly parents too. Her father is 86 or 87, and her mother is about five years younger. Her father has had (and has beaten) two different kinds of cancer. Her mother is mildly diabetic and has blood pressure issues. If either of them come down with a symptomatic case of this thing, their prognosis probably won't be good. Yet they don't think everyone and everything else should come to a halt to protect them. They understand it's on them to protect themselves.

We've always had people who are at high risk of dying from catching just about any bug that's going around. The very old and infirm for one (just look at the normal seasonal changes in death rate), and the immune-compromised, whether it's from a disease such as HIV or from something like chemotherapy. But we don't shut down the country in order keep bugs that are of negligible risk to healthy people from getting to them. We've always had the understanding that it's up to those who are at risk (and/or their care-givers, if they have them) to keep them from catching things.

Given the data on who is actually at risk of dying from this virus, it should be treated no differently. It isn't Ebola or Marburg; it isn't even the Spanish Flu of 100 years ago.

-Uwe-
 
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