General Corona Virus Discussion

   #182  

Jack@European_Parts

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Sounds like a little equivocation?
A Tesla is not an essential product or stuff needed to warrant the loss of anyone's life, is it?

I'd say without proper PROPER protection WEAPONS, medical care, food/water and shelter, you are fucked!

Corporations and the US Government is indeed a corporation, can't protect you!
 
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   #183  

DV52

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Pretend the EU is a single country. Then you'll have a comparable land area and population compared to the US. Do the results still look dramatically different?

-Uwe-

Uwe: good suggestion and bingo - remarkably similar infection rates when Europe viewed as one country - HERE

But the death statistics are a tad different - see HERE. Not sure why-perhaps population age profile, healthcare standards, general population health?

Don
 
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   #184  

Uwe

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But the death statistics are a tad different - see HERE. Not sure why-perhaps population age profile, healthcare standards, general population health?
Yep, the slope of the curve in the US is lower. For the first 25-30 days, they were almost the same, but then it diverged. I am not sure why.

I'm going to screen-shot this just for posterity:

vpgv4cg.png


-Uwe-
 
   #185  

Mike R

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Yep, the slope of the curve in the US is lower. For the first 25-30 days, they were almost the same, but then it diverged. I am not sure why.

I'm going to screen-shot this just for posterity:

-Uwe-

The population of Europe is substantially higher at 741M opposed to the US' 330M
 
   #186  

Uwe

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The population of Europe is substantially higher at 741M opposed to the US' 330M
OK, I guess we're conflating "Europe" (50 countries, 740-some million people) and the European Union (27 countries, 440-some million people).

-Uwe-
 
   #188  

DV52

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Uwe: hmm......... I'm still interested in exploring my hypothesis that "confederation density" is as important as population density in determining COVID death performance.

But on further reflection, I suspect that the calculation basis for the graph is too complex as a comparison metric. However, I like your suggestion to consider the Continent of Europe as a surrogate.

If I avoid what I suspect are confounders in the "cumulative days" graph and if I look instead on the simpler metric of total deaths - I get the following (all numbers taken from www.worldmeters webpage):

Europe= 44 x "countries". Total deaths (as of today) = 155,762. Infections = 1,675,742. Population = 747,575,057.
USA = 50 x States, Total deaths (as of today) = 83,377, Infections = 1,408,155. Population = 331,002,651

So,
Europe = 0.021% deaths/person
USA =0.025% deaths/person

Europe= 0.224% infections/person
USA = 0.425% infections/person

So - based on these more simple numbers, it seems that despite having twice the infection rate, USA appears to have about the same death rate.

Don
 
   #189  

Jack@European_Parts

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I can tell you where no COVID is, Neu Swabia!:rolleyes:

Let's see is it hollow Earth rabbit hole today or flat Earth SciFi?
 
   #190  

Gerzok

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Uwe: hmm......... I'm still interested in exploring my hypothesis that "confederation density" is as important as population density in determining COVID death performance.

But on further reflection, I suspect that the calculation basis for the graph is too complex as a comparison metric. However, I like your suggestion to consider the Continent of Europe as a surrogate.

If I avoid what I suspect are confounders in the "cumulative days" graph and if I look instead on the simpler metric of total deaths - I get the following (all numbers taken from www.worldmeters webpage):

Europe= 44 x "countries". Total deaths (as of today) = 155,762. Infections = 1,675,742. Population = 747,575,057.
USA = 50 x States, Total deaths (as of today) = 83,377, Infections = 1,408,155. Population = 331,002,651

So,
Europe = 0.021% deaths/person
USA =0.025% deaths/person

Europe= 0.224% infections/person
USA = 0.425% infections/person

So - based on these more simple numbers, it seems that despite having twice the infection rate, USA appears to have about the same death rate.

Don

You are right, thank you for the figures. I don't know anybody in person who had this virus to be honest. I have a friend who lives in this property in Italy and he wrote me that his country is starting to open up slowly, at least they can do sport in parks and on the beaches now.
 
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   #191  

Jack@European_Parts

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You are right, thank you for the figures. I don't know anybody in person who had this virus to be honest. I have a friend who lives in his property in Italy and he wrote me that his country is starting to open up slowly, at least they can do sport in parks and on the beaches now.


Clearly many don't know what they are missing yet huh? :rolleyes:

In my area you would have a different perspective real fast......
 
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Jef

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DubSteve68

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Uwe,

I've absolute respect for the work you've done but I've just noticed your current signature...

Lock-down of sick people: Quarantine
Lock-down of healthy people: Tyranny

My problem with this is some will see a statement like yours as the be-all and end-all argument against lockdown, while ignoring possibly the most dangerous aspect of novel coronavirus 2019 - some sick people think they're healthy and some "healthy" people don't realise they're sick.

Unfortunately a lack of thorough testing means asymptomatic carriers can believe they're absolutely fine and in peak health, and want to go about their "normal" lives, oblivious to the fact they could be transmitting covid-19 to some who may be very susceptible but have no obvious underlying health issues.

I would normally ignore a thread like this and let people get on with their differences of opinion, but this is very close to home for me as three weeks ago, to the day, my father died of pneumonia caused by Covid-19. He'd not been in contact with anyone showing symptoms but he contracted it from somewhere. He could have contracted it from me for all I know, making me responsible for his death if I happened to be an asymptomatic carrier. As for potentially being an asymptomatic carrier, I'll never know until the powers that be stop talking their usual PR bullshit of "what a great job we're doing" and actually deliver on testing for all. That'll be the day people can rightfully start calling out the "tyranny of lockdown", but until everyone actually knows whether or not they're a risk to others or not the use of such language isn't helpful when so much is potentially at stake.
 
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Jack@European_Parts

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   #199  

Uwe

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Steve,

First, condolences for the passing of your father.

May I ask how old he was, and what (if any) underlying conditions he had?

Let's be realistic about this virus: Healthy younger people are at a negligible risk of dying from it. If we wish to save as many lives as possible, we need to figure out how to keep that portion of the population that's vulnerable from being exposed to it, but it's quite obvious that locking down the all of society has not accomplished that.

You state we need more testing. I'm not sure what the situation in the UK looks like at the moment, but in much of the US, testing capacity now exceeds demand by a substantial margin. So what exactly do you propose? Mandatory testing? If so, who do you wish to test and how often? A person can have a negative result today, but that doesn't mean that they won't be an infectious carrier a few days in the future.

I agree that frequent testing would be very useful for anyone who works in elder care, and/or anyone who shares living quarters with with vulnerable people, but I think it is actually counter-productive in the general population. I do no see this virus going away completely until we reach herd immunity one way or another (more on that in a subsequent post). Sure, we can suppress its spread with draconian lock-downs, but unless those lock-downs succeed in eliminating every last reservoir of the virus in the entire world (which I do not think is possible), they only delay the its inevitable resurgence once they are lifted. Moreover, those lock-downs come at a huge cost to society; the damage we've done to the economy with them already will be with us for many years, and will primarily be a burden to the younger generations who are not being helped by them at all.

-Uwe-
 
   #200  

Uwe

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55 to 82% huh?
Maybe not. Here's some light reading for you, Jack:
https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/...ovid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/
https://jsmp.dk/posts/2020-05-07-herdimmunity/
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v2.full.pdf

So far, there is no proven vaccine
Nor can we count on one in the foreseeable future. There has never been a vaccine for corona viruses in humans. There have been some for pets and livestock, but they do not confer permanent immunity, and some of the earliest ones for cats actually ended up making matters worse.

Now I realize that dozens of research teams around the world are working on vaccines for this virus, and a couple of them have actually started small stage one (safety) trials, but I do not see them making it through stage two (effectiveness) trials, and then being mass-produced (we'd need something like 100 million doses on the USA alone) before well into next year.

Do you think the current lock-downs can be sustained until then? I don't. I think we'll reach natural herd immunity well before a vaccine is available. Heck, NYC well on the way there already. Note that this was three weeks ago, and which makes it a pretty safe bet that the number is higher than 21.2% now.

-Uwe-
 
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