2020 US Presidential Election

   #682  

Andy

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The RCP no Toss-Ups Map shows:

319 Biden/Harris -vs- Trump/Pence 219

My guess for outcome is the opposite of that: 319 Trump/Pence -vs- 219 Biden/Harris

I think Trump wins AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, TX, WI. Somehow I think Biden wins NV. FWIW, I voted in person this morning in PA and the line was bigger than I have ever seen it. I got in line at 7:11am and the voting machine acknowledged my sharpie-marked paper ballot vote at 8:31am .
 
   #683  

dieseldub

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A lot of very good points made by Nate Silver here. Biden is being favored by a wider margin than Hillary was last time and Biden doesn't suffer from near as much apathy from his own side as Hillary did. Plus, there are plenty on the left who are pretty much "anyone but Trump" and are likely to show up in bigger numbers, not wanting to make the same mistake that was made in 2016.

The basic idea behind the numbers here are this could be a very close election, or it could be a Biden landslide. It won't be a Trump landslide, however. But it's close enough in some key electoral states that Trump could infact pull it off again, but the odds are against him.

Of course given what happened last time, I wouldn't bet against Trump either, even if Vegas has odds on Biden.

Speaking of, it is very interesting that while oddsmakers favor Biden, there are a lot of bettors putting money on Trump--hoping for a repeat of last time and make some money in the process apparently. Enough so that Draft Kings called the situation an "irrational market":


Fivethirtyeight gave Trump nearly a 30% chance of winning last time. This time they're only giving him 10% chance, and combine that with the fact Biden is emminently more likeable to his own side than Clinton was, I don't think we see near as many apathetic democratic voters this time as we did in 2016, which should work in Biden's favor.
 
   #684  

Uwe

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   #685  

dieseldub

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Some former republican primary candidate campaign chiefs talking about their own perceptions on which segments are tending to go for whom. Only 1 in 3 thinks Florida is going Biden, but the one who DOES think it's going Biden is also someone who intimately knows Florida better than the others.

Georgia is legitimately a toss up this time. Michigan is likely to flip very strongly against Trump.
 
   #690  

PetrolDave

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This one is going to run and run for several more days yet I reckon :popcorn::popcorn::popcorn:
 
   #692  

PetrolDave

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When should we stop counting votes?
IMHO, as a non-US citizen, when the papers which are valid according to the laws of each state have all been counted. To do otherwise would disenfranchise voters who have followed the law.
 
   #696  

Uwe

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What is the statistical probability that a State could "find" ~138,00 votes in the dead of night and every last one of them is for one particular candidate?

-Uwe-
 
   #697  

passim

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What is the statistical probability that a State could "find" ~138,00 votes in the dead of night and every last one of them is for one particular candidate?

-Uwe-
Next you’re going to say Wisconsin got more votes than it had registered voters.
 
   #698  

Jack@European_Parts

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What is the statistical probability that a State could "find" ~138,00 votes in the dead of night and every last one of them is for one particular candidate?

-Uwe-
In my State no ones vote do not count anyway, nor would it be relied on, why?

It is why I don't vote!

Military industrial complex wants to play with its toys?



"The public sux, phuck hope!"
 
   #699  

jyoung8607

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When should we stop counting votes?
When each State is finished and certifies its results according to its laws.

What is the statistical probability that a State could "find" ~138,00 votes in the dead of night and every last one of them is for one particular candidate?
None. Use more reliable information sources.

Next you’re going to say Wisconsin got more votes than it had registered voters.
I don't think that he will, when Wisconsin has almost 3.7 million registered voters compared to 3.2 million votes, and that's without even bothering to allow for Wisconsin's same-day registration. Use more reliable information sources.
 
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   #700  

passim

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When each State is finished and certifies its results according to its laws.


None. Use more reliable information sources.


I don't think that he will, when Wisconsin has almost 3.7 million registered voters compared to 3.2 million votes, and that's without even bothering to allow for Wisconsin's same-day registration. Use more reliable information sources.
The ‘Wisconsin got more votes than voters’ nonsense was about as reliable as the ‘138k big vote dump’ story... that was my point.
 
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