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EV Thread
- Thread starter Andy
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^^^^
Current Model 3s being shipped are all ~$50,000 cars. And Tesla is still losing money. I really wonder how long they can keep raising new capital?
What $35,000 Model 3? As far as I'm aware, not a single one has been sold at that price, nor is there even a date as to when such a car can actually be configured/ordered.
Current Model 3s being shipped are all ~$50,000 cars. And Tesla is still losing money. I really wonder how long they can keep raising new capital?
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I don't disagree, but as long as they are able to, it will push every other auto manufacturer to improve their products.
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Might want to get some of this for the fuel tank..... 
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Musing out loud - which generates less total pollution?
1. Driving a car charged by electricity generated mainly by coal fired power stations which is then fed several hundred miles over lossy overhead lines to a charging system that charges batteries that typically take 40% more energy to recharge than they deliver?
or:
2. Driving a car fuelled by gasoline that is drilled as crude oil then piped several hundred miles to a refinery which cracks it into several useful sections including gasoline that is then pumped several hundred miles through pipelines to a distribution center where it is trucked to gas stations where you fill the tank which a gasoline engine then burns?
There's so many steps in each of those scenarios I don't have a clue which is the most/least efficient and hence which is the least/most polluting? Maybe the only real difference is just moving the pollution from the vehicle to the electricity generating plant?
Just asking as I don't know the answer... and information from either the oil companies or the green lobby cannot be seen as independent so must be treated as biased by an enquiring scientific mind.
1. Driving a car charged by electricity generated mainly by coal fired power stations which is then fed several hundred miles over lossy overhead lines to a charging system that charges batteries that typically take 40% more energy to recharge than they deliver?
or:
2. Driving a car fuelled by gasoline that is drilled as crude oil then piped several hundred miles to a refinery which cracks it into several useful sections including gasoline that is then pumped several hundred miles through pipelines to a distribution center where it is trucked to gas stations where you fill the tank which a gasoline engine then burns?
There's so many steps in each of those scenarios I don't have a clue which is the most/least efficient and hence which is the least/most polluting? Maybe the only real difference is just moving the pollution from the vehicle to the electricity generating plant?
Just asking as I don't know the answer... and information from either the oil companies or the green lobby cannot be seen as independent so must be treated as biased by an enquiring scientific mind.
I don't either. If electricity were mostly generated via non-fossil fuel energy sources (nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, etc) then the answer would be fairly easy to deduce. But that isn't the case in most markets.
-Uwe-
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it is an excellent question and one that doesn't have a straightforward answer.
for example, not all electricity is generated by your assumed coal fired power stations. Solar and wind utilization are on the rise in both europe and america.
and as numerous and unique as the individual drivers are, even using exactly the same gas car can exhibit wildly varying pollution and/or efficiency performance. Complicate that with the huge variances in the vehicles themselves.
I suspect, that, at least in plug-in electric vehicles, that while not perfect, the pollution and efficiencies are much more consistent across different drivers.
This means if we can continue to improve efficiency and lower pollution at the end user level (ie electric cars and better drivers), while also improving both the infrastructure efficiency (ie transmission lines), and reducing pollution and improving efficiency at the source (ie solar/wind), this will have a much more positive effect on the environment.
In the short term, this may very well mean that we have sources that are more dirty than the end use, but in my opinion, that still beats sources of energy that are dirty from top to bottom, and in ways that are not easily made cleaner.
Even if it takes an increase in 'dirty' electrical sources, to manage the increase of demand due to increased cleaner electrical vehicles and infrastructure, at a minimum this will improve the local areas pollution output, and limit the excess pollution generation to particular areas, which can be improved as technology allows.
for example, not all electricity is generated by your assumed coal fired power stations. Solar and wind utilization are on the rise in both europe and america.
and as numerous and unique as the individual drivers are, even using exactly the same gas car can exhibit wildly varying pollution and/or efficiency performance. Complicate that with the huge variances in the vehicles themselves.
I suspect, that, at least in plug-in electric vehicles, that while not perfect, the pollution and efficiencies are much more consistent across different drivers.
This means if we can continue to improve efficiency and lower pollution at the end user level (ie electric cars and better drivers), while also improving both the infrastructure efficiency (ie transmission lines), and reducing pollution and improving efficiency at the source (ie solar/wind), this will have a much more positive effect on the environment.
In the short term, this may very well mean that we have sources that are more dirty than the end use, but in my opinion, that still beats sources of energy that are dirty from top to bottom, and in ways that are not easily made cleaner.
Even if it takes an increase in 'dirty' electrical sources, to manage the increase of demand due to increased cleaner electrical vehicles and infrastructure, at a minimum this will improve the local areas pollution output, and limit the excess pollution generation to particular areas, which can be improved as technology allows.
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I like the admission that there may well be a short term increase in total pollution (to meet the extra demand for electricity) but a long term reduction seems plausible if vehicle efficiencies and battery efficiencies continue to improve. Many/most/all of the green pundits who appear on TV are unwilling to make that admission so it's admirable to see it first here.
BTW in the UK despite the take-up of EVs and hybrids total pollution due to vehicles has gone UP in the past year principally due to the combination of increased congestion and the switch away from diesel to gasoline once the harmful effects of particulates was finally widely publicised. VAG are now having difficulty meeting the increased demand for gasoline engines and new vehicle delivery times are increasing substantially, I don't know if that has been seen the other side of the pond?
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I can't speak to the new vehicle delivery times, not in that industry nor have been actively looking at new cars.
This is only my opinion, but seems most logical to me, that if you can improve emissions at the wider end of the scale (end users), even if you have to concentrate those same or even worse emissions at the source, it still provides a wider area of cleaner air, while concentrating the pollutants in a location that can be tightly focused on improving them.
In other words, its seems more logical that its better to focus on improving concentrated/focused pollution, versus than trying to wack a mole at the end user side.
Better to have a single large enemy that you know where is, than hundreds of enemies hidden in the jungle.
Not saying that reducing congestion/inter city pollution is not important either, but I suspect the main way to achieve that is via electrification and public transportation.
This is only my opinion, but seems most logical to me, that if you can improve emissions at the wider end of the scale (end users), even if you have to concentrate those same or even worse emissions at the source, it still provides a wider area of cleaner air, while concentrating the pollutants in a location that can be tightly focused on improving them.
In other words, its seems more logical that its better to focus on improving concentrated/focused pollution, versus than trying to wack a mole at the end user side.
Better to have a single large enemy that you know where is, than hundreds of enemies hidden in the jungle.
Not saying that reducing congestion/inter city pollution is not important either, but I suspect the main way to achieve that is via electrification and public transportation.
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Public transportation will never solve the need for personal transport - for the majority of people it can never go from where to are to where you need to be at the time you need to be there.
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no, I did not state or mean to imply public transportation did or would.
however, properly planned/effective use of public transportation can take mass people from area a to area b in an (ideally) more efficient, potentially time-saving, and definitely less congestion causing manner than individualized transportation performing the same function.
And just because modern society has more or less embraced individualized transport, does not mean that mass or public transportation initiatives are not worthwhile, or should not be explored, or even prioritized at a higher level.
that is saying, as a middle aged american white guy, I fully understand the innate sense of freedom and utility that personal transport provides, but at what cost?
like say examples London or New York, where it can be more expensive to own and utilized personal transport than to take advantage of public transport; taxi/subways/trains/commuter vans/etc.
or god forbid; walking or biking
however, properly planned/effective use of public transportation can take mass people from area a to area b in an (ideally) more efficient, potentially time-saving, and definitely less congestion causing manner than individualized transportation performing the same function.
And just because modern society has more or less embraced individualized transport, does not mean that mass or public transportation initiatives are not worthwhile, or should not be explored, or even prioritized at a higher level.
that is saying, as a middle aged american white guy, I fully understand the innate sense of freedom and utility that personal transport provides, but at what cost?
like say examples London or New York, where it can be more expensive to own and utilized personal transport than to take advantage of public transport; taxi/subways/trains/commuter vans/etc.
or god forbid; walking or biking
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Not an option for most people in rural England where the roads are often only just wide enough for 1 vehicle, there are no sidewalks and distance to the nearest town or shop are in the tens of miles.
Public transportation has a valid role in large conurbations, but in smaller towns it's role is questionable and in rural areas it is not a valid option.
As always it's a case of horses for courses - for some EVs with their current range are fine but not for most, for some in large towns public transportation is better than personal transportation, but for someone rural areas neither EVs (with their current range issues, slow charge rates on normal chargers and lack of public recharging places) nor public transportation are viable.
More development of EVs, especially battery energy density, will shift the balance but charging and generation infrastructure development will be the limiting factor since nobody wants to pay (government won't and there's no bottom line benefit to businesses).
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You may or may not remember, there was a time before the automobile, that mankind managed to get around. 
speaking of horses..
I am only being half dramatic, half facetious.
btw, I spent 2 years in england, near ipswitch, I remember the narrow roads and walking to town (or drunk walking and/or crawling back to base). I also remember taxi's. I used to have a road atlas of england.
The only straight roads on the continent are the ones that run parallel to airplane runways.
More seriously though, I do not disagree, that different environments call for different types of solutions.
I love my gas engines and vehicles. But sooner or later, we will run out of crude, maybe not in our life, or our childrens, but soon. It is not an infinite resource.
Regardless of the popularity and/or availability (edit: of public transportation), the personal transport is also here to stay, though what it looks like and how it operates will no doubt continue to evolve.
Regarding governments and infrastructure. At some point, governments will be faced with either creating or subsidizing the infrastructure, if only for the simple fact that they will need it to move their military forces around. Like running out of crude, this may not be in our direct future, but it will happen sooner or later.
speaking of horses..
I am only being half dramatic, half facetious.
btw, I spent 2 years in england, near ipswitch, I remember the narrow roads and walking to town (or drunk walking and/or crawling back to base). I also remember taxi's. I used to have a road atlas of england.
The only straight roads on the continent are the ones that run parallel to airplane runways.
More seriously though, I do not disagree, that different environments call for different types of solutions.
I love my gas engines and vehicles. But sooner or later, we will run out of crude, maybe not in our life, or our childrens, but soon. It is not an infinite resource.
Regardless of the popularity and/or availability (edit: of public transportation), the personal transport is also here to stay, though what it looks like and how it operates will no doubt continue to evolve.
Regarding governments and infrastructure. At some point, governments will be faced with either creating or subsidizing the infrastructure, if only for the simple fact that they will need it to move their military forces around. Like running out of crude, this may not be in our direct future, but it will happen sooner or later.
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In general, folks tend to forget the cost of/use of electricity when refining gasoline and diesel ie it's not just the fuel you burn in the car you should be thinking of.... In any case, as our grid gets better so do the e-cars
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...ot-even-cleaner-in-a-year-new-grid-data-shows
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...ot-even-cleaner-in-a-year-new-grid-data-shows
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I will add another thought to the crowd;
A lot of projections and postulations speak almost entirely of new EV's.
I suspect an aspect which is vastly un-considered is, the used car tail.
I can't see the future any more than anyone else, but based on my own personal EV experiences and the grey matter in my head, I foresee that used EV (and hybrid) sales will increase and start to overtake used ICE sales at a much more rapid pace than new EV sales.
Further, I expect the longevity of EV's to extend further than the current average age of vehicles on the road (~11.5 years), and vehicle life expectancy average (~8 years).
https://www.google.com/search?q=average+age+of+vehicles+on+the+road
https://www.google.com/search?q=What+is+the+average+life+expectancy+of+a+car
In other words, I expect EV's (on average) to last longer and be on the road longer than conventional ICE vehicles.
And while I fully expect the audience of this forum and other similar car repair/owners clubs, to have above average ICE vehicle life expectancy, I suggest that would apply regardless of the vehicle type. IE enthusiasts/auto industry folks tend to take better care of their stuff.
A lot of projections and postulations speak almost entirely of new EV's.
I suspect an aspect which is vastly un-considered is, the used car tail.
I can't see the future any more than anyone else, but based on my own personal EV experiences and the grey matter in my head, I foresee that used EV (and hybrid) sales will increase and start to overtake used ICE sales at a much more rapid pace than new EV sales.
Further, I expect the longevity of EV's to extend further than the current average age of vehicles on the road (~11.5 years), and vehicle life expectancy average (~8 years).
https://www.google.com/search?q=average+age+of+vehicles+on+the+road
https://www.google.com/search?q=What+is+the+average+life+expectancy+of+a+car
In other words, I expect EV's (on average) to last longer and be on the road longer than conventional ICE vehicles.
And while I fully expect the audience of this forum and other similar car repair/owners clubs, to have above average ICE vehicle life expectancy, I suggest that would apply regardless of the vehicle type. IE enthusiasts/auto industry folks tend to take better care of their stuff.